Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG Consumer Cyclical Recreational Vehicles
Harley-Davidson, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $4.5 billion, down 13.8% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue fell 5.86%, EPS fell 14.6%, free cash flow fell 53.2% and total debt fell 67.3%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for five consecutive years; insiders bought in the last twelve months.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Beneish M-score
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s Beneish M-score for fiscal 2025 is −1.54; values above −1.78 are the model's flag for possible earnings manipulation — a statistical screen, not a finding.
Beneish M-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Beneish M-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −1.54 | 1.26 |
| FY2024 | −2.80 | (0.33) |
| FY2023 | −2.47 | (0.39) |
| FY2022 | −2.07 | 0.18 |
| FY2021 | −2.25 | 1.82 |
| FY2020 | −4.07 | (1.46) |
| FY2019 | −2.61 | 0.17 |
| FY2018 | −2.78 | (0.11) |
| FY2017 | −2.67 | (7.85) |
| FY2016 | 5.18 | 8.74 |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days’ sales in receivables index | 2.42 | — | 2.23 | |
| Gross margin index | 1.16 | — | 0.61 | |
| Asset quality index | 0.41 | — | 0.17 | |
| Sales growth index | 0.86 | — | 0.77 | |
| Depreciation index | 1.04 | — | 0.12 | |
| SG&A index | 1.16 | — | −0.20 | |
| Total accruals to total assets | (0.03) | — | −0.14 | |
| Leverage index | 0.79 | — | −0.26 | |
| Beneish M-score | Flagged by the model | −1.54 | ||
How the Beneish M-score works
M = −4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI (Beneish, 1999): eight changes in the accounts from one fiscal year to the next, which the model weighs for the pattern seen in companies that later restated their earnings. Higher is worse.
| below −2.22 | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation |
|---|---|
| −2.22 to −1.78 | Elevated |
| above −1.78 | Flagged by the model |
−1.78 is the cut-off usually quoted from the paper, −2.22 a common conservative one. A statistical screen, not a finding of wrongdoing.
When asset quality, depreciation or SG&A cannot be worked out, that index is set to 1, as Beneish did, and the breakdown says so; with all three missing there is no score. Depreciation includes amortisation, and asset quality leaves out securities. Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs.
Beneish M-score against peers
| Company | Beneish M-score |
|---|---|
| PII Polaris Inc. compare | −3.5× |
| DOO BRP Inc. compare | −3.1× |
| BC Brunswick Corporation compare | −2.9× |
| PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. compare | −2.8× |
| LCII LCI Industries compare | −2.5× |
| THO Thor Industries, Inc. compare | −2.5× |
| WGO Winnebago Industries, Inc. compare | −2.5× |
| HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc. | −1.5× |
| MCFT MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. compare | −0.9× |
What Beneish M-score is
The Beneish M-Score combines eight year-on-year changes in the accounts into a statistical screen for patterns seen in companies that overstated earnings.
−4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI