Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG Consumer Cyclical Recreational Vehicles
Harley-Davidson, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $4.5 billion, down 13.8% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue fell 5.86%, EPS fell 14.6%, free cash flow fell 53.2% and total debt fell 67.3%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for five consecutive years; insiders bought in the last twelve months.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Altman Z-score
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is 2.10, in the grey zone (1.81–2.99).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2.10 | 0.72 |
| FY2024 | 1.38 | (0.20) |
| FY2023 | 1.58 | (0.04) |
| FY2022 | 1.62 | 0.12 |
| FY2021 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| FY2020 | 1.00 | (0.49) |
| FY2019 | 1.49 | (0.01) |
| FY2018 | 1.50 | (0.32) |
| FY2017 | 1.82 | (0.24) |
| FY2016 | 2.05 | (1.01) |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | 0.36 | — | 0.44 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | 0.46 | — | 0.65 | |
| EBIT / total assets | 0.05 | — | 0.16 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 0.50 | — | 0.30 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.56 | — | 0.56 | |
| Altman Z-score | Grey zone | 2.10 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Safe zone | 4.90 | ||
Z and Z″ put Harley-Davidson, Inc. in different zones: grey zone by Z, safe zone by Z″.
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| LCII LCI Industries compare | 3.5× |
| THO Thor Industries, Inc. compare | 3.5× |
| MCFT MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. compare | 3.4× |
| WGO Winnebago Industries, Inc. compare | 3.4× |
| PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. compare | 3.3× |
| BC Brunswick Corporation compare | 2.8× |
| DOO BRP Inc. compare | 2.5× |
| HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 2.1× |
| PII Polaris Inc. compare | 1.6× |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets