Wall Street's five biggest banks posted blockbuster profits in the first half as rates rose. With third-quarter results looming, analysts expect a slowdown in trading, dealmaking, and financing revenue, though profits should still be above a year ago. Higher long-term rates are raising funding costs and pressuring margins, and a rapid rate repricing could curb activity in M&A and IPOs. Bank shares have tumbled from summer highs, and investor sentiment has soured even as the broader market climbs. The Federal Reserve's recent rate hike adds to funding pressures, while executives warn that the AI-financing cycle and deal activity may not rebound quickly.
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Two tools with flawless track records say a stock-market drop is coming under President Trump. The Shiller CAPE ratio is about 41.8, far above its 156-year average of 17.42, and past readings above 30 have preceded major selloffs such as the Great Depression and the dot-com bust. At the same time, outstanding margin debt has surged about 77% to a record $1.502 trillion, one of four sharp, crash-adjacent spikes in the last 30 years. The piece argues these signals, while not timing-proof, raise the odds of a significant downturn during Trump’s tenure. It also notes AI-driven valuation inflation and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as factors, and closes with a pitch from The Motley Fool about its stock picks. Timing remains uncertain, but risk is rising.
AI hardware is becoming the main battleground, not the iPhone killer. After years of trying to dethrone smartphones, tech firms are racing to embed generative AI into existing devices and new form factors. Apple is doubling down on monetizing AI through its installed base, potentially acting as a 'toll collector' on consumer AI. The idea is to put useful AI in front of 2.5 billion active devices and 1.5 billion iPhones. Microsoft and Nvidia are promoting AI-centric laptops like the Surface Laptop Ultra to run models at home rather than in the cloud, appealing to privacy and cost concerns. Meta is shipping handhelds and glasses with embedded AI. If hardware wins, the result could loosen smartphones' dominance and spark a wave of new devices, driving innovation and different revenue models.
9 October
11 more from 9 October →- Elon Musk Just Made a Surprising Statement About AI Chips. Here's the Stock It Helps.
- SpaceX snaps up the 800 MHz spectrum T-Mobile dumped for $2.9 billion — and T-Mobile, Verizon, AT&T stocks are sliding
- Tesla is one of the ‘clearest ways to own physical AI,’ analyst says
- Amazon and others are done keeping data center deals secret. Is it enough to build trust?
- Elon Musk's SpaceX just made a huge play to challenge the phone industry, and AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon stocks are getting crushed
- Nvidia Has Already Made Investors Rich. Here’s Where the Stock Could Be Headed Next
- Moderna stock jumps on planned national cancer vaccine effort
- SpaceX makes big move to be a mobile carrier: Wall Street analysts weigh in
- SpaceX's mobile play: The 'best argument just got weaker' for carriers
8 October
14 more from 8 October →- OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026
- Ray Dalio Says AI Bubble Is ‘Close’ to Bursting as Debt and Rising Rates Raise Red Flags
- SpaceX’s Hybrid Starlink Mobile Spectrum Deal Might Change The Case For Investing In Verizon (VZ)
- Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan Says Company Will Keep Working on Terafab — Elon Musk Confirms TSMC May Only Sublease Part of the Fab, Not Own It
- Elon Musk's SpaceX just made a huge play to challenge the phone industry and stocks like AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon are getting crushed
- 60 Million Children Have Been Automatically Enrolled in Trump Accounts. Here’s What Parents Should Know
- Appetite for OpenAI, Anthropic IPOs will be strong despite some negative headlines: Ives
- St. Louis Fed's Musalem sees more rate hikes in the next 6 months
- OpenAI corrects annualized revenue figure to $50 billion
7 October
18 more from 7 October →- MSFT Stock On 4-Day Winning Streak: Microsoft Takes On Apple's Macs With Nvidia-Powered Surface Ultra, More On-Device AI
- Amazon stock is trading at its lowest trailing PE ratio in years despite AI boom
- Broadcom Holds Early Talks About Financing Deal for OpenAI Chips
- Jamie Dimon Says AI Will Eliminate Jobs, 'It Is What It Is' — But Warns Cutting $150,000 Truck Driving Jobs To $25K A Year Would Bring 'Civil Unrest'
- Paramount paid Netflix $2.8 billion to walk away from its $82.7-billion Warner Bros. deal — and Netflix stock jumped 14%
- Ray Dalio says taxing the wealthy more could help spur financial collapse — 'you have to sell wealth to get money'
- Broadcom, Oracle, and SpaceX pursue blockbuster debt deals amid AI buildout - WSJ
- Michael Dell defends Trump Accounts' shift to individual company stocks
- Amazon stock is trading at its lowest trailing PE ratio as a public company, despite AI boom