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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

FWRG Consumer Cyclical Restaurants

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.2 billion, up 20.3% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 15.2%, EPS grew 33.3%, free cash flow fell 580.4% and total debt rose 11.7%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for five consecutive years, operating cash flow growth for three.

12.12 0.24 −1.94%
Market cap
$762.8M
P/E
40.4×
Fwd P/E
67.6×
Dividend yield
—
F-score
4/9
Altman Z
1.14
Beneish M
−2.79
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Financial Analysis Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios 10-Q 10-K

Insider Decisions trades per month

Total sells 1.15
Totals in millions of $.
Dec 25 Mar 26 Jun 26 Sep 26
Buy — — — — — — — — — — — —
Sell — 1 1 — 13 — — — — — — —
Insider Ownership 2.22%

Capital & Financial Ratios $m

Market Cap 762.77
Revenue 1,318.01
Net Income 17.81
Free Cash Flow (21.84)
Net Debt 272.05
Current Ratio 0.27 (below 1: weak)
Debt/Equity 0.46 (at or below 0.5: strong)
P/E ratio 40.40 (above 35: high)
Fwd P/E 67.60 (above 35: high)
P/S ratio 0.57
P/B ratio 1.18
Past 5Y EPS Growth —
This Y EPS Growth (63.56%) (below 0%: weak)
Next Y EPS Growth 124.18% (at or above 15%: strong)
Next Y revenue growth 13.62% (at or above 10%: strong)
Next 5Y EPS Growth 5.84%

Green and red mark values outside typical ranges. How we judge →

Valuation vs history

EV/Sales, ten years
EV/Sales is 0.8×, against a ten-year median of 1.3×; over the ten years it ranged from 0.7× in 2026 to 2.2× in 2021.
P/E against its own 10 years 12.36%
10-year low 10-year high
P/S against its own 10 years 6.16%
10-year low 10-year high
P/B against its own 10 years 7.03%
10-year low 10-year high
EV/Sales against its own 10 years 6.16%
10-year low 10-year high

Dividends

Payout Ratio —
Annual Dividend Rate —
Annual Dividend Yield —
total individual payouts
2025 Powerpack
2024 Powerpack
2023 Powerpack
2022 Powerpack
2021 Powerpack
2020 Powerpack
2019 Powerpack
2018 Powerpack
predictions special payouts not included in total or ratios

Assets vs Liabilities $m

2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Cash 50 33 21 20
Receivables 6 7 7 7
Inventory 5 6 7 8
Other 3 2 6 2
71 56 49 48
2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Payables 6 7 9 10
ST’ Debt 6 9 13 15
Other — 0 1 0
115 138 167 178

Compound Annual Growth %

10y 5y 3y
Sales — 28.99% 18.74%
Cash Flow — 0.00% 26.00%
Earnings — 0.00% 41.17%
Book Value — 14.31% 6.18%

Revenue $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 331 355 — — —
’25 282 308 316 316 1,223
’24 242 259 252 263 1,016
’23 211 216 219 245 892
’22 173 184 187 186 730
’21 127 154 157 163 601
’20 — — 100 — 342
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Operating Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 34 27 — — —
’25 20 39 48 18 126
’24 25 32 36 23 116
’23 21 34 17 22 95
’22 8 24 15 16 63
’21 6 25 14 19 63
’20 — — (20) 2 (18)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Free Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 5 (14) — — —
’25 (16) (2) 5 (18) (32)
’24 (4) 2 7 (18) (12)
’23 7 19 (6) (8) 12
’22 (3) 8 (4) (1) 0
’21 (5) 16 6 10 27
’20 — — (43) (3) (45)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

EPS $

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 (0.04) 0.04 — — —
’25 (0.01) 0.03 0.05 0.24 0.31
’24 0.12 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.30
’23 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.41
’22 0.08 0.05 0.00 (0.01) 0.11
’21 (0.05) 0.08 0.02 (0.08) (0.04)
’20 — — (0.25) — (1.10)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Target Price Range

Analyst price targets

Recommendation Rating

1
1Buy 2 3Hold 4 5Sell

Ten years at a glance Fiscal years to December

Group Line 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Trend 2026e 2027e 2028e
Price, $
Price, $ Low — — — — — 14.90 11.57 13.32 12.90 12.90

Analyst estimates 2026–2028

Powerpack
High — — — — — 25.46 18.95 20.95 25.98 22.71
People
People Employees — — — — 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 15,000 17,500
Revenue/emp, $m — — — 0.00 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07
Income, $m
Income, $m Revenue — — — 436 342 601 730 892 1,016 1,223
Gross margin, % — — — 20.03 9.86 21.22 19.85 22.13 21.96 20.24
EBT — — — (58) (70) 0 13 36 28 12
EBT margin, % — — — (13.27) (20.31) 0.06 1.72 4.05 2.76 0.99
Net income — 0 — (45) (50) (2) 7 25 19 19
Depreciation — — — 29 32 33 35 42 58 76
Per share, $
Per share, $ Revenue — — — 9.69 7.61 12.47 12.36 14.98 16.83 20.05
Earnings — — — (1.01) (1.10) (0.04) 0.12 0.43 0.31 0.32
Cash flow — — — 0.48 (0.41) 1.31 1.07 1.60 1.92 2.07
Capex — — — (1.31) (0.60) (0.74) (1.07) (1.40) (2.12) (2.59)
Free cash flow — — — (0.84) (1.01) 0.57 (0.01) 0.20 (0.20) (0.52)
Book value — — — 7.33 7.13 10.46 8.85 9.43 9.86 10.27
Shares, m — — — 45 45 48 59 60 60 61
Valuation, ×
Valuation, × P/E — — — 0.00 0.00 0.00 114.90 46.71 60.03 47.66
P/S — — — 1.85 1.85 1.34 1.12 1.31 1.11 0.75
P/B — — — 3.07 3.07 1.60 1.57 2.08 1.89 1.47
EV/Sales — — — 2.29 2.29 1.43 1.19 1.39 1.27 0.97
EV/FCF — — — 87.30 87.30 31.47 (2,217.00) 104.95 (104.39) (37.07)
Cash, $m
Cash, $m Operating cash flow — — — 21 (18) 63 63 95 116 126
Capex — — — (59) (27) (36) (63) (83) (128) (158)
Free cash flow — — — (38) (45) 27 0 12 (12) (32)
Balance, $m
Balance, $m Working capital — — — (49) (27) (29) (33) (44) (83) (118)
Total debt — — — 253 290 103 101 125 198 282
Net debt — — — 242 251 51 51 75 165 261
Shareholders’ equity — — — 330 321 504 523 561 595 626
Returns, %
Returns, % ROA — — — (9.25) (4.99) (0.21) 0.64 2.14 1.36 1.19
ROIC — — — (4.10) (5.16) 2.50 1.84 4.05 3.20 1.94
ROE — — — (13.96) (15.27) (0.51) 1.34 4.68 3.27 3.18
Negative figures in brackets.

All 10 years →

Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Jun 2026

Charts ten years each

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. vs peers in Restaurants (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier

Company Market cap P/E Fwd P/E Revenue growth (Q) EPS growth (Q) FCF growth (Q) Gross margin (Q) EBIT margin (Q) Compare
SG Sweetgreen, Inc. $1.3B 91.3× — (loss-making) +3.81% (above 0%: growing) n/m +19.78% (above 0%: growing) 13.07% (14.23%) Compare
BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. $850.2M 31.1× 8.6× +1.34% (above 0%: growing) +23.33% (above 0%: growing) +321.24% (above 0%: growing) 39.06% 3.77% Compare
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. $762.8M 40.4× 67.6× +15.20% (above 0%: growing) +33.33% (above 0%: growing) −580.44% (below 0%: shrinking) 20.43% 2.29%
CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. $704.0M — (loss-making) — (loss-making) −7.26% (below 0%: shrinking) n/m +64.83% (above 0%: growing) 16.54% (55.58%) Compare
PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. $644.3M 23.9× 22.7× −8.84% (below 0%: shrinking) −10.71% (below 0%: shrinking) −31.42% (below 0%: shrinking) 29.72% 4.81% Compare
HDL Super Hi International Holding Ltd. Unsponsored ADR $634.3M 37.9× — +9.99% (above 0%: growing) n/m +43.42% (above 0%: growing) 65.85% 5.26% Compare
LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. $496.7M 13.8× 14.0× +2.97% (above 0%: growing) +79.17% (above 0%: growing) +155.53% (above 0%: growing) 32.80% 14.42% Compare
BH.A Biglari Holdings Inc. $491.2M — (loss-making) — (loss-making) −1.19% (below 0%: shrinking) −18.71% (below 0%: shrinking) −73.82% (below 0%: shrinking) 30.05% 0.00% Compare
KRUS Kura Sushi USA, Inc. $475.3M — (loss-making) — (loss-making) +16.17% (above 0%: growing) −40.00% (below 0%: shrinking) +46.90% (above 0%: growing) 11.94% (0.05%) Compare
Median of peers $639.3M 31.1× 14.0× +2.16% −10.71% +45.16% 29.89% 1.89%

All 56 Restaurants stocks →

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) key facts

  • Strength: First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.2 billion, up 20.3% from fiscal 2024.
  • First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) is a Restaurants company in the Consumer Cyclical sector, listed on Nasdaq.
  • As of October 16, 2026, FWRG traded at $12.12, a market capitalization of $762.8 million.
  • Return on equity was 3.18% and debt-to-equity 0.46.
  • Its Piotroski F-score is 4 out of 9 and its Altman Z-score is 1.14 (distress zone) for fiscal 2025.

Source: company filings (standardised) and stockrow calculations.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Latest News

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stockrow.com/FWRG · Data as of Jun 30, 2026 · For information only; not investment advice. · © 2026 stockrow.com