First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
FWRG Consumer Cyclical Restaurants
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.2 billion, up 20.3% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 15.2%, EPS grew 33.3%, free cash flow fell 580.4% and total debt rose 11.7%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for five consecutive years, operating cash flow growth for three.
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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Altman Z-score
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is 1.14, in the distress zone (below 1.81).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 1.14 | (0.23) |
| FY2024 | 1.37 | (0.33) |
| FY2023 | 1.71 | 0.33 |
| FY2022 | 1.38 | 0.01 |
| FY2021 | 1.36 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | (0.07) | — | −0.08 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | (0.02) | — | −0.03 | |
| EBIT / total assets | 0.02 | — | 0.05 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 0.82 | — | 0.49 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.70 | — | 0.70 | |
| Altman Z-score | Distress zone | 1.14 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Distress zone | 0.19 | ||
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. compare | 3.7× |
| KRUS Kura Sushi USA, Inc. compare | 3.6× |
| HDL Super Hi International Holding Ltd. Unsponsored ADR compare | 2.9× |
| CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. compare | 1.8× |
| LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. compare | 1.6× |
| FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 1.1× |
| BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. compare | 0.8× |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. compare | −0.4× |
| BH.A Biglari Holdings Inc. compare | — |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets