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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

FWRG Consumer Cyclical Restaurants

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.2 billion, up 20.3% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+10.7%
EPS
+55.2%
Free cash flow
+2.94%
Total debt
+10.3%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

13.04 0.46 −3.41%
Market cap
$809.9M
P/E
39.8×
Fwd P/E
138×
Dividend yield
—
F-score
4/9
Altman Z
1.14
Beneish M
−2.79
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios

Insider Decisions last twelve months

Sold, $m 1.15
Trades a month
Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Buy — — — — — — — — — — — —
Sell 1 1 — 13 — — — — — — — —
Insider Ownership 2.30%

Capital & Financial Ratios $m

Size
Market Cap 809.85
Revenue ttm 1,351.84
Net income ttm 19.61
Free cash flow ttm (21.69)
Net debt Q 270.21
Valuation
P/E 39.80 (above 35: high)
Forward P/E 138.00 (above 35: high)
Price / sales 0.60
Forward P/S Powerpack
Price / FCF 0.00
Price / book 1.25
Financial health
Current ratio Q 0.25 (below 1: weak)
Debt / equity Q 0.45 (at or below 0.5: strong)
Interest coverage Q 2.24
Growth
Revenue growth Q +10.71% (above 0%: growing)
Operating income growth Q +9.93% (above 0%: growing)
EPS, this year −60.76% (below 0%: weak)
EPS, next year A +112.09% (at or above 15%: strong)
Revenue, next year A +13.54% (at or above 10%: strong)
EPS, past 5 yrs —
EPS, next 5 yrs A +12.63%

Green and red mark values outside typical ranges; (Q) is the latest quarter, (A) analysts’ estimates. How we judge →

Valuation vs history

EV/Sales, ten years
EV/Sales is 0.8×, against a ten-year median of 1.3×; over the ten years it ranged from 0.7× in 2026 to 2.2× in 2021.
P/E against its own 10 years 11.26%
10-year low 10-year high
P/S against its own 10 years 10.00%
10-year low 10-year high
P/B against its own 10 years 12.73%
10-year low 10-year high
EV/Sales against its own 10 years 9.53%
10-year low 10-year high

Dividends

Yield
—
Annual rate
—
Payout ratio
—

Assets vs Liabilities $m

2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Cash 50 33 21 21
Receivables 6 7 7 7
Inventory 5 6 7 7
Other 3 2 6 3
71 56 49 47
2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Payables 6 7 9 10
ST’ Debt 6 9 13 16
Other — 0 1 0
115 138 167 191

Compound Annual Growth %

10y 5y 3y
Sales — 28.99% 18.74%
Cash Flow — 0.00% 26.00%
Earnings — 0.00% 41.17%
Book Value — 14.31% 6.18%

Earnings Trends EPS, adjusted, against the consensus

Q3 FY26 Estimate 0.03 Actual 0.08

Earnings per share against the consensus, by quarter
Quarter Estimate Reported Result
Q4 FY25 0.08 0.24 Beat by 0.16
Q1 FY26 −0.02 −0.04 Miss by 0.02
Q2 FY26 0.06 0.04 Miss by 0.02
Q3 FY26 0.03 0.08 Beat by 0.05
Q4 FY26 0.07 — Reports 23 February 2027

EPS $

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 (0.04) 0.04 0.08 — —
’25 (0.01) 0.03 0.05 0.24 0.31
’24 0.12 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.30
’23 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.41
’22 0.08 0.05 0.00 (0.01) 0.11
’21 (0.05) 0.08 0.02 (0.08) (0.04)
’20 — — (0.25) — (1.10)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Revenue $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 331 355 350 — —
’25 282 308 316 316 1,223
’24 242 259 252 263 1,016
’23 211 216 219 245 892
’22 173 184 187 186 730
’21 127 154 157 163 601
’20 — — 100 — 342
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Operating Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 34 27 49 — —
’25 20 39 48 18 126
’24 25 32 36 23 116
’23 21 34 17 22 95
’22 8 24 15 16 63
’21 6 25 14 19 63
’20 — — (20) 2 (18)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Free Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 5 (14) 5 — —
’25 (16) (2) 5 (18) (32)
’24 (4) 2 7 (18) (12)
’23 7 19 (6) (8) 12
’22 (3) 8 (4) (1) 0
’21 (5) 16 6 10 27
’20 — — (43) (3) (45)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Target Price Range

Analyst price targets

Recommendation Rating

1
1Buy 2 3Hold 4 5Sell

Ten years at a glance Fiscal years to December

Ten-year view Analyst estimates Powerpack
Group Line 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 TTM Sep ’26 Trend 10 yrs 2026e 2027e 2028e Next 3/yr
Income, $m
Income, $m Revenue — — — 436 342 601 730 892 1,016 1,223 1,352 +18.7% 1,388 1,549 1,723 +12.1%
Gross margin, % — — — 20.03 9.86 21.22 19.85 22.13 21.96 20.24 20.57 +0.2 pt
EBT — — — (58) (70) 0 13 36 28 12 11 n/m
EBT margin, % — — — (13.27) (20.31) 0.06 1.72 4.05 2.76 0.99 0.80 +14.3 pt
Net income — 0 — (45) (50) (2) 7 25 19 19 20 n/m
Per share, $
Per share, $ Revenue — — — 9.69 7.61 12.47 12.36 14.98 16.83 20.05 21.90 +12.9%
Earnings — — — (1.01) (1.10) (0.04) 0.12 0.43 0.31 0.32 0.33 n/m
Cash flow — — — 0.48 (0.41) 1.31 1.07 1.60 1.92 2.07 2.09 +27.7%
Capex — — — (1.31) (0.60) (0.74) (1.07) (1.40) (2.12) (2.59) (2.44) +12.0%
Free cash flow — — — (0.84) (1.01) 0.57 (0.01) 0.20 (0.20) (0.52) (0.35) (7.6%)
Book value — — — 7.33 7.13 10.46 8.85 9.43 9.86 10.27 10.43 +5.8%
Shares, m — — — 45 45 48 59 60 60 61 61 +5.2%
Valuation, ×
Valuation, × P/E — — — 0.00 0.00 0.00 114.90 46.71 60.03 47.66 39.80 38.5
P/S — — — 1.85 1.85 1.34 1.12 1.31 1.11 0.75 0.60 1.3
P/B — — — 3.07 3.07 1.60 1.57 2.08 1.89 1.47 1.25 2.1
EV/Sales — — — 2.29 2.29 1.43 1.19 1.39 1.27 0.97 0.80 1.5
EV/FCF — — — 87.30 87.30 31.47 (2,217.00) 104.95 (104.39) (37.07) (49.56) (292.5)
Cash, $m
Cash, $m Operating cash flow — — — 21 (18) 63 63 95 116 126 129 +34.3%
Capex — — — (59) (27) (36) (63) (83) (128) (158) (151) +17.8%
Free cash flow — — — (38) (45) 27 0 12 (12) (32) (22) (2.8%)
Balance, $m
Balance, $m Working capital — — — (49) (27) (29) (33) (44) (83) (118) (144) +15.9%
Net debt — — — 242 251 51 51 75 165 261 270 +1.3%
Shareholders’ equity — — — 330 321 504 523 561 595 626 644 +11.3%
Returns, %
Returns, % ROA — — — (9.25) (4.99) (0.21) 0.64 2.14 1.36 1.19 1.10 +10.4 pt
ROIC — — — (4.10) (5.16) 2.50 1.84 4.05 3.20 1.94 2.00 +6.0 pt
ROE — — — (13.96) (15.27) (0.51) 1.34 4.68 3.27 3.18 3.13 +17.1 pt
People
People Employees — — — — 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 15,000 17,500 — +16.9%
Revenue/emp, $m — — — 0.00 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 — n/m
Negative figures in brackets.
estimates

All 10 years →

Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Sep 2026 · fundamentals updated 5 Nov 2026

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. vs peers in Restaurants (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier

Company Market cap P/E Fwd P/E Revenue growth (Q) EPS growth (Q) FCF growth (Q) Gross margin (Q) EBIT margin (Q) Compare
BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. $1.2B 29.9× 28.0× +6.37% (above 0%: growing) −11.00% (below 0%: shrinking) −84.81% (below 0%: shrinking) 74.52% 4.74% Compare
BH Biglari Holdings Inc. $1.0B — (loss-making) 24.0× +7.86% (above 0%: growing) −18.71% (below 0%: shrinking) −66.30% (below 0%: shrinking) 41.26% 12.17% Compare
BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. $896.5M 32.7× 11.5× +1.34% (above 0%: growing) +23.33% (above 0%: growing) +321.24% (above 0%: growing) 39.06% 3.77% Compare
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. $809.9M 39.8× 138× +10.71% (above 0%: growing) +55.20% (above 0%: growing) +2.94% (above 0%: growing) 21.13% 3.16%
CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. $705.2M — (loss-making) — (loss-making) −7.26% (below 0%: shrinking) n/m +64.83% (above 0%: growing) 16.54% (55.58%) Compare
PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. $654.8M 26.2× 22.4× −10.49% (below 0%: shrinking) −35.71% (below 0%: shrinking) +14.97% (above 0%: growing) 27.76% 3.13% Compare
HDL Super Hi International Holding Ltd. Unsponsored ADR $597.8M 38.7× — +9.99% (above 0%: growing) n/m +43.42% (above 0%: growing) 65.85% 5.26% Compare
BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. $529.3M — (loss-making) 53.2× +25.01% (above 0%: growing) — −27.71% (below 0%: shrinking) 73.07% 6.51% Compare
LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. $500.9M 13.9× 13.7× +2.97% (above 0%: growing) +79.17% (above 0%: growing) +155.53% (above 0%: growing) 32.80% 14.42% Compare
Median of peers $680.0M 29.9× 23.2× +4.67% −11.00% +29.20% 40.16% 5.00%

All 55 Restaurants stocks →

Pay and ownership Proxy statement filed 8 April 2026

Chief executive’s pay

Year Total pay Actually paid $100 invested
2025 11.52m 10.51m 111.92
2024 4.92m 4.09m 131.56
2023 4.93m 7.34m 141.43

Ownership

Directors and executive officers, together 6.10%
FMR LLC 10.80%
BlackRock, Inc. 5.10%
Neuberger Berman Group LLC /Neuberger Berman Investment Advisers LLC 5.00%
Total pay is as the Summary Compensation Table states it; actually paid revalues the year’s share awards at its end, as the SEC’s pay-versus-performance rule asks. $100 invested is what $100 in the company’s shares at the start of the earliest year shown was worth at each year’s end. Ownership is the proxy’s own table: the directors and officers as a group, and every holder of 5% or more. Read the proxy statement

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Latest News

4 Nov

Impact 3 · · nrn.com

3 Nov

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28 Oct

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27 Oct

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20 Oct

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19 Oct

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1 Oct

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14 Aug

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12 Aug

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11 Aug

Impact 3 · · The Motley Fool transcript

4 Aug

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3 Aug

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28 Jul

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22 Jul

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11 Jun

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stockrow.com/FWRG · Data as of Nov 5, 2026 · For information only; not investment advice. · © 2026 stockrow.com