Saturday 17 October 2026
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Geo Group Inc (The)
GEO Industrials Security & Protection Services
In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 15.1%, EPS grew 71.4%, free cash flow grew 2,422.0% and total debt rose 2.45%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for three consecutive years.
28.66
0.67
−2.28%
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Target Price Range
Analyst price targets
Free accountTen years at a glance Fiscal years to December
| Group | Line | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Trend | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price, $ | |||||||||||||||
| Price, $ | Low | 10.84 | 23.06 | 18.43 | 13.28 | 8.00 | 4.96 | 5.21 | 6.94 | 10.46 | 14.27 |
Analyst estimates 2026–2028 Powerpack |
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| High | 24.00 | 34.32 | 28.06 | 24.03 | 18.42 | 11.00 | 12.44 | 12.42 | 29.86 | 36.46 | |||||
| People | |||||||||||||||
| People | Employees | 19,370 | 18,512 | 22,000 | 22,000 | 20,000 | 15,800 | 15,800 | 16,400 | 16,500 | 18,000 | ||||
| Revenue/emp, $m | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | |||||
| Income, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Income, $m | Revenue | 2,179 | 2,263 | 2,331 | 2,478 | 2,350 | 2,257 | 2,377 | 2,413 | 2,424 | 2,632 | ||||
| Gross margin, % | 24.28 | 24.87 | 24.69 | 25.02 | 24.62 | 27.81 | 30.03 | 27.72 | 26.79 | 25.20 | |||||
| EBT | 149 | 152 | 149 | 174 | 124 | 193 | 230 | 138 | 39 | 335 | |||||
| EBT margin, % | 6.86 | 6.71 | 6.40 | 7.00 | 5.28 | 8.54 | 9.67 | 5.72 | 1.59 | 12.75 | |||||
| Net income | 148 | 146 | 145 | 166 | 113 | 77 | 172 | 107 | 32 | 254 | |||||
| Depreciation | 127 | 141 | 135 | 139 | 163 | 143 | 142 | 138 | 134 | 138 | |||||
| Per share, $ | |||||||||||||||
| Per share, $ | Revenue | 19.62 | 18.85 | 19.39 | 20.81 | 19.63 | 18.75 | 19.64 | 19.80 | 18.46 | 19.14 | ||||
| Earnings | 1.34 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.40 | 0.94 | 0.59 | 1.18 | 0.78 | 0.23 | 1.85 | |||||
| Cash flow | (0.25) | 3.17 | 2.28 | 2.84 | 3.69 | 2.35 | 2.38 | 2.28 | 1.84 | 0.53 | |||||
| Capex | (0.72) | (1.21) | (1.58) | (0.97) | (0.89) | (0.37) | 0.09 | (0.44) | (0.60) | 0.90 | |||||
| Free cash flow | (0.97) | 1.97 | 0.70 | 1.87 | 2.80 | 1.98 | 2.47 | 1.84 | 1.25 | 1.43 | |||||
| Book value | 8.78 | 9.98 | 8.65 | 8.36 | 7.62 | 8.10 | 9.63 | 10.58 | 10.15 | 10.94 | |||||
| Shares, m | 111 | 120 | 120 | 119 | 120 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 131 | 137 | |||||
| Valuation, × | |||||||||||||||
| Valuation, × | P/E | 18.13 | 19.73 | 16.28 | 11.86 | 9.43 | 14.62 | 9.08 | 13.79 | 139.90 | 8.76 | ||||
| P/S | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.02 | 0.80 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 1.52 | 0.84 | |||||
| P/B | 2.77 | 2.41 | 2.28 | 1.99 | 1.16 | 0.96 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 2.76 | 1.47 | |||||
| EV/Sales | 2.20 | 2.35 | 2.02 | 1.87 | 1.55 | 1.48 | 1.32 | 1.22 | 2.19 | 1.44 | |||||
| EV/FCF | (44.57) | 22.52 | 55.53 | 20.86 | 10.85 | 13.96 | 10.47 | 13.12 | 32.44 | 19.34 | |||||
| Cash, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Cash, $m | Operating cash flow | (28) | 381 | 274 | 338 | 442 | 283 | 288 | 278 | 242 | 73 | ||||
| Capex | (80) | (145) | (190) | (116) | (106) | (44) | 11 | (53) | (79) | 124 | |||||
| Free cash flow | (108) | 236 | 85 | 222 | 335 | 239 | 299 | 224 | 164 | 196 | |||||
| Balance, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Balance, $m | Working capital | 194 | 210 | (103) | 146 | 300 | 565 | 118 | 91 | 160 | 362 | ||||
| Total debt | 2,182 | 2,553 | 2,417 | 2,720 | 2,889 | 2,926 | 1,933 | 1,726 | 1,711 | 1,649 | |||||
| Net debt | 2,097 | 2,427 | 2,334 | 2,656 | 2,579 | 2,399 | 1,838 | 1,632 | 1,632 | 1,577 | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity | 975 | 1,199 | 1,040 | 996 | 912 | 975 | 1,165 | 1,290 | 1,333 | 1,504 | |||||
| Returns, % | |||||||||||||||
| Returns, % | ROA | 4.12 | 3.67 | 3.42 | 3.89 | 2.58 | 1.72 | 4.14 | 2.88 | 0.87 | 6.81 | ||||
| ROIC | 5.40 | 4.28 | 4.90 | 5.19 | 4.11 | 5.34 | 7.99 | 7.54 | 6.53 | 5.22 | |||||
| ROE | 15.01 | 13.45 | 12.96 | 16.37 | 11.85 | 8.20 | 16.06 | 8.74 | 2.44 | 17.93 | |||||
Negative figures in brackets.
Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Jun 2026
Charts ten years each
Geo Group Inc (The) vs peers in Security & Protection Services (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Revenue growth (Q) | EPS growth (Q) | FCF growth (Q) | Gross margin (Q) | EBIT margin (Q) | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLE Allegion PLC | $13.2B | 20.5× | 16.1× | +12.67% (above 0%: growing) | +15.59% (above 0%: growing) | −5.99% (below 0%: shrinking) | 44.94% | 22.12% | Compare |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporporated | $7.0B | 22.2× | 19.3× | +6.16% (above 0%: growing) | +39.37% (above 0%: growing) | +118.31% (above 0%: growing) | 49.53% | 22.24% | Compare |
| ADT ADT Inc. | $5.0B | 8.9× | 8.3× | +1.96% (above 0%: growing) | 0.00% | +28.06% (above 0%: growing) | 79.92% | 24.07% | Compare |
| BCO Brink's Company (The) | $4.3B | 24.2× | 12.4× | +7.06% (above 0%: growing) | +3.88% (above 0%: growing) | −97.49% (below 0%: shrinking) | 26.29% | 9.57% | Compare |
| BRC Brady Corporation | $3.9B | 18.8× | 16.5× | +9.98% (above 0%: growing) | −7.62% (below 0%: shrinking) | +22.90% (above 0%: growing) | 52.90% | 13.76% | Compare |
| GEO Geo Group Inc (The) | $3.9B | 13.4× | 20.6× | +15.08% (above 0%: growing) | +71.43% (above 0%: growing) | +2,422.02% (above 0%: growing) | 27.51% | 13.89% | |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | $3.1B | 24.1× | 14.7× | +27.27% (above 0%: growing) | +8.57% (above 0%: growing) | +55.25% (above 0%: growing) | 21.74% | 10.07% | Compare |
| NSSC NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. | $1.3B | 29.4× | 21.5× | +10.02% (above 0%: growing) | +51.52% (above 0%: growing) | +19.89% (above 0%: growing) | 61.31% | 33.02% | Compare |
| EVLV Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | $757.1M | — (loss-making) | — (loss-making) | +34.44% (above 0%: growing) | n/m | +203.88% (above 0%: growing) | 50.17% | (24.11%) | Compare |
| Median of peers | $4.1B | 22.2× | 16.1× | +10.00% | +8.57% | +25.48% | 49.85% | 17.94% |
Geo Group Inc (The) (GEO) key facts
- Geo Group Inc (The) (GEO) is a Security & Protection Services company in the Industrials sector, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
- As of October 16, 2026, GEO traded at $28.66, a market capitalization of $3.9 billion.
- Return on equity was 17.9% and debt-to-equity 1.00.
- Its Piotroski F-score is 6 out of 9 and its Altman Z-score is 1.69 (distress zone) for fiscal 2025.
Geo Group Inc (The) (GEO) Latest News
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