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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

ZTO Industrials Integrated Freight & Logistics

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $7.0 billion, up 15.7% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 29.8%, EPS grew 73.5%, free cash flow grew 121.4% and total debt rose 25.3%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for ten consecutive years.

20.15 0.25 +1.26%
Market cap
$10.9B
P/E
10.6×
Fwd P/E
11.3×
Dividend yield
1.94%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
4.65
Beneish M
−2.68
Dividend safety
68/100

Insider Decisions trades per month

Dec 25 Mar 26 Jun 26 Sep 26
Buy — — — — — — — — — — — —
Sell — — — — — — — — — — — —
Insider Ownership 28.40%

Capital & Financial Ratios $m

Market Cap 10,900.00
Revenue 7,938.40
Net Income 1,320.68
Free Cash Flow (299.48)
Net Debt (1,404.32)
Current Ratio 1.67 (at or above 1.5: strong)
Debt/Equity 0.34 (at or below 0.5: strong)
P/E ratio 10.59
Fwd P/E 11.30
P/S ratio 1.94
P/B ratio 1.64
Past 5Y EPS Growth 14.03%
This Y EPS Growth 21.97% (at or above 15%: strong)
Next Y EPS Growth 11.45%
Next Y revenue growth 22.46% (at or above 10%: strong)
Next 5Y EPS Growth 14.07%

Green and red mark values outside typical ranges. How we judge →

Valuation vs history

P/E against its own 10 years 1.00%
10-year low 10-year high
P/S against its own 10 years 0.60%
10-year low 10-year high
P/B against its own 10 years 2.92%
10-year low 10-year high
EV/Sales against its own 10 years 0.60%
10-year low 10-year high

Dividends

Payout Ratio 0.21
Annual Dividend Rate 0.39
Annual Dividend Yield 1.94%
total individual payouts
2028 Powerpack
2027 Powerpack
2026 0.83
0.39
2025 0.65
0.35
0.30
2024 0.97
0.62
0.35
2023 0.37
0.37
2022 0.00
0.25
2021 0.00
0.24
2020 0.00
0.29
2019 0.00
0.23
2017 Powerpack
predictions special payouts not included in total or ratios

Assets vs Liabilities $m

2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Cash 2,884 3,062 3,670 4,621
Receivables 241 367 281 312
Inventory 4 5 6 5
Other 668 724 901 969
3,796 4,158 4,857 5,906
2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Payables 360 337 369 384
ST’ Debt 1,094 1,303 1,564 1,713
Other 1,298 1,142 1,275 1,373
2,826 3,873 3,270 3,532

Compound Annual Growth %

10y 5y 3y
Sales 22.59% 12.69% 11.03%
Cash Flow 19.80% 17.67% 0.93%
Earnings 20.81% 14.46% 9.57%
Book Value 23.32% 4.99% 6.72%

Revenue $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 1,926 2,144 — — —
’25 1,501 1,652 1,667 2,202 7,021
’24 1,379 1,476 1,521 1,690 6,066
’23 1,308 1,343 1,244 1,516 5,411
’22 1,247 1,292 1,257 1,332 5,129
’21 988 1,135 1,147 1,502 4,771
’20 553 906 978 1,427 3,864
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Operating Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 404 679 — — —
’25 326 307 455 624 1,711
’24 281 477 470 337 1,566
’23 399 498 397 588 1,882
’22 174 555 354 581 1,664
’21 73 300 278 482 1,133
’20 25 177 226 330 759
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Free Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 404 679 — — —
’25 326 307 455 624 871
’24 281 477 470 337 780
’23 399 498 397 588 963
’22 174 555 354 581 606
’21 73 300 278 482 (312)
’20 25 177 226 330 (652)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

EPS $

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 0.39 0.56 — — —
’25 0.34 0.33 0.44 0.47 1.60
’24 0.24 0.43 0.41 0.40 1.47
’23 0.30 0.42 0.39 0.37 1.49
’22 0.18 0.33 0.33 0.38 1.21
’21 0.10 0.24 0.22 0.34 0.91
’20 0.07 0.26 0.23 0.24 0.83
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Target Price Range

Analyst price targets

Recommendation Rating

1.5
1Buy 2 3Hold 4 5Sell

Ten years at a glance Fiscal years to December

Group Line 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Trend 2026e 2027e 2028e
Price, $
Price, $ Low 12.01 11.14 14.51 15.30 21.58 25.23 16.27 19.70 15.90 16.34

Analyst estimates 2026–2028

Powerpack
High 18.45 18.08 22.67 23.67 38.99 38.96 32.28 30.05 27.50 22.01
People
People Employees 17,324 16,023 15,700 19,009 22,536 23,865 24,888 23,554 24,471 23,399
Revenue/emp, $m 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.30
Income, $m
Income, $m Revenue 1,410 2,007 2,560 3,176 3,864 4,771 5,129 5,411 6,066 7,021
Gross margin, % 35.17 33.27 30.47 29.95 23.15 21.67 25.55 30.36 30.98 24.99
EBT 406 587 776 971 772 901 1,201 1,505 1,600 1,581
EBT margin, % 28.81 29.26 30.31 30.56 19.97 18.88 23.42 27.82 26.37 22.51
Net income 295 486 638 815 663 738 965 1,233 1,218 1,321
Depreciation 47 86 124 182 282 349 387 405 414 483
Per share, $
Per share, $ Revenue 2.22 2.80 3.41 4.05 4.85 5.82 6.34 6.70 7.54 8.80
Earnings 0.42 0.68 0.85 1.04 0.83 0.91 1.22 1.53 1.50 1.63
Cash flow 0.58 0.78 0.85 1.16 0.95 1.38 2.06 2.33 1.95 2.15
Capex (0.61) (0.61) (0.76) (0.96) (1.77) (1.76) (1.31) (1.14) (0.98) (1.05)
Free cash flow (0.03) 0.17 0.10 0.20 (0.82) (0.38) 0.75 1.19 0.97 1.09
Book value 4.48 4.60 6.63 7.04 9.45 9.36 9.76 10.51 10.67 12.04
Shares, m 635 717 752 784 796 820 809 808 805 798
Valuation, ×
Valuation, × P/E 29.73 24.88 18.20 22.45 36.45 31.36 22.23 13.71 12.78 13.14
P/S 6.18 5.87 4.65 5.76 6.01 4.85 4.35 3.09 2.59 2.37
P/B 6.76 3.57 2.39 3.32 3.09 3.01 2.83 1.97 1.83 1.74
EV/Sales 5.95 5.04 3.63 5.06 5.37 4.57 4.18 2.94 2.47 2.08
EV/FCF 0.00 18.14 14.50 (20.11) (8.18) (7.17) (7.79) (13.11) (12.81) (19.37)
Cash, $m
Cash, $m Operating cash flow 365 558 641 906 759 1,133 1,664 1,882 1,566 1,711
Capex (387) (434) (569) (751) (1,411) (1,445) (1,058) (919) (786) (840)
Free cash flow (22) 124 72 155 (652) (312) 606 963 780 871
Balance, $m
Balance, $m Working capital 1,392 1,265 2,341 1,927 1,989 890 1,170 971 285 1,587
Total debt 65 38 — 115 297 630 1,766 2,084 1,303 1,584
Net debt (1,652) (1,652) (2,650) (2,239) (2,468) (1,346) (893) (800) (1,759) (2,086)
Shareholders’ equity 2,845 3,295 4,984 5,516 7,525 7,678 7,898 8,490 8,586 9,600
Returns, %
Returns, % ROA 11.15 13.23 13.09 13.18 8.44 7.89 9.30 10.34 9.62 10.12
ROIC 20.91 21.91 16.87 14.96 9.01 8.52 10.01 11.46 14.77 12.46
ROE 14.84 15.82 15.40 15.52 10.14 9.82 12.68 15.04 14.15 14.28
Negative figures in brackets.

All 10 years →

Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Jun 2026

Charts ten years each

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. vs peers in Integrated Freight & Logistics (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier

Company Market cap P/E Fwd P/E Revenue growth (Q) EPS growth (Q) FCF growth (Q) Gross margin (Q) EBIT margin (Q) Compare
FDX FedEx Corporation $69.0B 15.7× 15.5× +12.54% (above 0%: growing) −4.07% (below 0%: shrinking) +62.20% (above 0%: growing) 69.62% 6.20% Compare
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. $25.3B 26.8× 30.2× +19.28% (above 0%: growing) +24.41% (above 0%: growing) −91.47% (below 0%: shrinking) 14.96% 5.18% Compare
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. $25.2B 28.0× 23.6× +32.07% (above 0%: growing) +50.37% (above 0%: growing) +2.03% (above 0%: growing) 30.99% 9.98% Compare
JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. $21.5B 32.5× 38.8× +19.37% (above 0%: growing) +45.80% (above 0%: growing) +29.82% (above 0%: growing) 41.31% 7.42% Compare
ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. $10.9B 10.6× 11.3× +29.83% (above 0%: growing) +73.53% (above 0%: growing) +121.35% (above 0%: growing) 25.66% 22.19%
LSTR Landstar System, Inc. $5.8B 43.8× 38.6× +18.09% (above 0%: growing) +20.00% (above 0%: growing) −950.32% (below 0%: shrinking) 21.71% 4.62% Compare
GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. $5.3B 40.5× 26.3× +4.30% (above 0%: growing) −4.35% (below 0%: shrinking) +127.91% (above 0%: growing) 14.76% 2.24% Compare
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. $2.3B 13.4× 11.1× −2.25% (below 0%: shrinking) +117.65% (above 0%: growing) +37.11% (above 0%: growing) 53.66% 23.66% Compare
HUBG Hub Group, Inc. $1.6B 14.7× 23.7× −5.31% (below 0%: shrinking) +23.08% (above 0%: growing) −37.43% (below 0%: shrinking) 26.84% 4.22% Compare
Median of peers $13.6B 27.4× 25.0× +15.32% +23.75% +15.93% 28.92% 5.69%

All 31 Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks →

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) key facts

  • Strength: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $7.0 billion, up 15.7% from fiscal 2024.
  • Strength: Net income was $1.3 billion, or $1.63 per share (basic), a net margin of 18.5%.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is an Integrated Freight & Logistics company in the Industrials sector, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
  • As of October 9, 2026, ZTO traded at $20.15, a market capitalization of $10.9 billion.
  • At that price the stock trades at 10.6× trailing-twelve-month earnings and 1.9× sales; its P/E is higher than 1% of its own readings over the past ten years.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. pays an annual dividend of $0.39 per share, a yield of 1.94%, with a payout ratio of 21.0%.
  • Return on equity was 14.3% and debt-to-equity 0.34.
  • Its Piotroski F-score is 7 out of 9 and its Altman Z-score is 4.65 (safe zone) for fiscal 2025.

Source: company filings (standardised) and stockrow calculations.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Latest News

18 Aug

Impact 4 · transcript

29 Aug

stockrow.com/ZTO · Data as of Jun 30, 2026 · For information only; not investment advice. · © 2026 stockrow.com