Saturday 31 October 2026
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO Industrials Integrated Freight & Logistics
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $7.0 billion, up 15.7% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 29.8%, EPS grew 73.5%, free cash flow grew 121.4% and total debt rose 25.3%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for ten consecutive years.
20.17
0.29
+1.46%
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Target Price Range
Analyst price targets
Free accountTen years at a glance Fiscal years to December
| Ten-year view | Analyst estimates Powerpack | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Line | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Trend | 10 yrs | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | Next 3/yr |
| Price, $ | |||||||||||||||||
| Price, $ | Low | 12.01 | 11.14 | 14.51 | 15.30 | 21.58 | 25.23 | 16.27 | 19.70 | 15.90 | 16.34 | +3.5% | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | |
| High | 18.45 | 18.08 | 22.67 | 23.67 | 38.99 | 38.96 | 32.28 | 30.05 | 27.50 | 22.01 | +2.0% | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ||
| People | |||||||||||||||||
| People | Employees | 17,324 | 16,023 | 15,700 | 19,009 | 22,536 | 23,865 | 24,888 | 23,554 | 24,471 | 23,399 | +3.4% | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | |
| Revenue/emp, $m | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.30 | +15.6% | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ||
| Income, $m | |||||||||||||||||
| Income, $m | Revenue | 1,410 | 2,007 | 2,560 | 3,176 | 3,864 | 4,771 | 5,129 | 5,411 | 6,066 | 7,021 | +19.5% | 8,665 | 9,386 | 10,146 | +13.1% | |
| Gross margin, % | 35.17 | 33.27 | 30.47 | 29.95 | 23.15 | 21.67 | 25.55 | 30.36 | 30.98 | 24.99 | (10.2) pt | ||||||
| EBT | 406 | 587 | 776 | 971 | 772 | 901 | 1,201 | 1,505 | 1,600 | 1,581 | +16.3% | ||||||
| EBT margin, % | 28.81 | 29.26 | 30.31 | 30.56 | 19.97 | 18.88 | 23.42 | 27.82 | 26.37 | 22.51 | (6.3) pt | ||||||
| Net income | 295 | 486 | 638 | 815 | 663 | 738 | 965 | 1,233 | 1,218 | 1,321 | +18.1% | ||||||
| Depreciation | 47 | 86 | 124 | 182 | 282 | 349 | 387 | 405 | 414 | 483 | +29.6% | ||||||
| Per share, $ | |||||||||||||||||
| Per share, $ | Revenue | 2.22 | 2.80 | 3.41 | 4.05 | 4.85 | 5.82 | 6.34 | 6.70 | 7.54 | 8.80 | +16.5% | |||||
| Earnings | 0.42 | 0.68 | 0.85 | 1.04 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 1.22 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.63 | +16.3% | ||||||
| Cash flow | 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.85 | 1.16 | 0.95 | 1.38 | 2.06 | 2.33 | 1.95 | 2.15 | +15.7% | ||||||
| Capex | (0.61) | (0.61) | (0.76) | (0.96) | (1.77) | (1.76) | (1.31) | (1.14) | (0.98) | (1.05) | +6.3% | ||||||
| Free cash flow | (0.03) | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.20 | (0.82) | (0.38) | 0.75 | 1.19 | 0.97 | 1.09 | n/m | ||||||
| Book value | 4.48 | 4.60 | 6.63 | 7.04 | 9.45 | 9.36 | 9.76 | 10.51 | 10.67 | 12.04 | +11.6% | ||||||
| Shares, m | 635 | 717 | 752 | 784 | 796 | 820 | 809 | 808 | 805 | 798 | +2.6% | ||||||
| Valuation, × | |||||||||||||||||
| Valuation, × | P/E | 29.73 | 24.88 | 18.20 | 22.45 | 36.45 | 31.36 | 22.23 | 13.71 | 12.78 | 13.14 | 22.5 | |||||
| P/S | 6.18 | 5.87 | 4.65 | 5.76 | 6.01 | 4.85 | 4.35 | 3.09 | 2.59 | 2.37 | 4.6 | ||||||
| P/B | 6.76 | 3.57 | 2.39 | 3.32 | 3.09 | 3.01 | 2.83 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.74 | 3.0 | ||||||
| EV/Sales | 5.95 | 5.04 | 3.63 | 5.06 | 5.37 | 4.57 | 4.18 | 2.94 | 2.47 | 2.08 | 4.1 | ||||||
| EV/FCF | 0.00 | 18.14 | 14.50 | (20.11) | (8.18) | (7.17) | (7.79) | (13.11) | (12.81) | (19.37) | (5.6) | ||||||
| Cash, $m | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash, $m | Operating cash flow | 365 | 558 | 641 | 906 | 759 | 1,133 | 1,664 | 1,882 | 1,566 | 1,711 | +18.7% | |||||
| Capex | (387) | (434) | (569) | (751) | (1,411) | (1,445) | (1,058) | (919) | (786) | (840) | +9.0% | ||||||
| Free cash flow | (22) | 124 | 72 | 155 | (652) | (312) | 606 | 963 | 780 | 871 | n/m | ||||||
| Balance, $m | |||||||||||||||||
| Balance, $m | Working capital | 1,392 | 1,265 | 2,341 | 1,927 | 1,989 | 890 | 1,170 | 971 | 285 | 1,587 | +1.5% | |||||
| Total debt | 65 | 38 | — | 115 | 297 | 630 | 1,766 | 2,084 | 1,303 | 1,584 | +42.6% | ||||||
| Net debt | (1,652) | (1,652) | (2,650) | (2,239) | (2,468) | (1,346) | (893) | (800) | (1,759) | (2,086) | +2.6% | ||||||
| Shareholders’ equity | 2,845 | 3,295 | 4,984 | 5,516 | 7,525 | 7,678 | 7,898 | 8,490 | 8,586 | 9,600 | +14.5% | ||||||
| Returns, % | |||||||||||||||||
| Returns, % | ROA | 11.15 | 13.23 | 13.09 | 13.18 | 8.44 | 7.89 | 9.30 | 10.34 | 9.62 | 10.12 | (1.0) pt | |||||
| ROIC | 20.91 | 21.91 | 16.87 | 14.96 | 9.01 | 8.52 | 10.01 | 11.46 | 14.77 | 12.46 | (8.5) pt | ||||||
| ROE | 14.84 | 15.82 | 15.40 | 15.52 | 10.14 | 9.82 | 12.68 | 15.04 | 14.15 | 14.28 | (0.6) pt | ||||||
Negative figures in brackets.
estimates
Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Jun 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. vs peers in Integrated Freight & Logistics (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Revenue growth (Q) | EPS growth (Q) | FCF growth (Q) | Gross margin (Q) | EBIT margin (Q) | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX FedEx Corporation | $72.1B | 16.9× | 14.6× | +12.54% (above 0%: growing) | −4.07% (below 0%: shrinking) | +62.20% (above 0%: growing) | 69.62% | 6.20% | Compare |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $25.8B | 28.9× | 24.8× | +32.07% (above 0%: growing) | +50.37% (above 0%: growing) | +2.03% (above 0%: growing) | 30.99% | 9.98% | Compare |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $20.7B | 31.3× | 31.2× | +19.37% (above 0%: growing) | +45.80% (above 0%: growing) | +29.82% (above 0%: growing) | 41.31% | 7.42% | Compare |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company Inc. | $16.4B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Compare |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $14.7B | 23.6× | 22.9× | +19.28% (above 0%: growing) | +24.41% (above 0%: growing) | −91.47% (below 0%: shrinking) | 14.96% | 5.18% | Compare |
| ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | $10.9B | 10.6× | 10.0× | +29.83% (above 0%: growing) | +73.53% (above 0%: growing) | +121.35% (above 0%: growing) | 25.66% | 22.19% | |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $5.7B | 43.8× | 29.7× | +4.30% (above 0%: growing) | −4.35% (below 0%: shrinking) | +127.91% (above 0%: growing) | 14.76% | 2.24% | Compare |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $4.8B | 37.1× | 27.9× | +18.09% (above 0%: growing) | +20.00% (above 0%: growing) | −950.32% (below 0%: shrinking) | 21.71% | 4.62% | Compare |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $2.3B | 13.1× | 11.3× | −2.25% (below 0%: shrinking) | +117.65% (above 0%: growing) | +37.11% (above 0%: growing) | 53.66% | 23.66% | Compare |
| Median of peers | $15.6B | 28.9× | 24.8× | +18.09% | +24.41% | +29.82% | 30.99% | 6.20% |