| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 0.83 |
—
|
| 2025 | 0.65 |
—
—
|
| 2024 | 0.97 |
—
—
|
| 2023 | 0.37 |
—
|
| 2022 | 0.00 |
—
|
| 2021 | 0.00 |
—
|
| 2020 | 0.00 |
—
|
| 2019 | 0.00 |
—
|
| 2017 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2,883.86 | 3,062.13 | 3,669.55 | 4,620.78 |
| Receivables | 240.57 | 367.48 | 280.61 | 311.81 |
| Inventory | 3.95 | 5.28 | 5.81 | 4.57 |
| Other | 667.95 | 723.55 | 900.91 | 969.24 |
| 3,796.33 | 4,158.44 | 4,856.89 | 5,906.40 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 360.15 | 337.48 | 368.54 | 384.01 |
| ST’ Debt | 1,093.82 | 1,303.41 | 1,563.60 | 1,712.78 |
| Other | 1,298.21 | 1,142.49 | 1,275.33 | 1,372.98 |
| 2,825.56 | 3,873.42 | 3,270.24 | 3,532.12 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 1,925.54 | 2,144.39 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 1,500.88 | 1,651.66 | 1,666.62 | 2,201.85 |
7,021.02
|
| ’24 | 1,379.45 | 1,475.94 | 1,521.18 | 1,689.87 |
6,066.43
|
| ’23 | 1,308.06 | 1,343.25 | 1,243.96 | 1,515.92 |
5,411.19
|
| ’22 | 1,246.83 | 1,292.41 | 1,257.46 | 1,332.48 |
5,129.18
|
| ’21 | 987.90 | 1,134.51 | 1,147.02 | 1,501.91 |
4,771.34
|
| ’20 | 553.03 | 906.20 | 977.80 | 1,427.23 |
3,864.26
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 404.33 | 679.31 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 325.63 | 306.90 | 455.00 | 623.93 |
1,711.46
|
| ’24 | 281.29 | 477.06 | 470.43 | 337.05 |
1,565.83
|
| ’23 | 398.68 | 497.66 | 397.21 | 588.31 |
1,881.85
|
| ’22 | 174.37 | 555.11 | 354.30 | 580.56 |
1,664.34
|
| ’21 | 72.80 | 300.37 | 278.11 | 481.73 |
1,133.01
|
| ’20 | 25.11 | 177.31 | 226.25 | 330.07 |
758.74
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 404.33 | 272.54 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 325.63 | (121.95) | 455.00 | (216.43) |
871.10
|
| ’24 | 281.29 | 68.51 | 470.43 | (449.02) |
779.76
|
| ’23 | 398.68 | (123.26) | 397.21 | (330.89) |
962.66
|
| ’22 | 174.37 | 56.96 | 354.30 | (477.81) |
605.97
|
| ’21 | 72.80 | 300.37 | 278.11 | (963.44) |
(312.16)
|
| ’20 | 25.11 | (387.11) | 226.25 | (1,081.11) |
(652.45)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 0.39 | 0.56 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
1.60
|
| ’24 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.40 |
1.47
|
| ’23 | 0.30 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.37 |
1.49
|
| ’22 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.38 |
1.21
|
| ’21 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.34 |
0.91
|
| ’20 | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.24 |
0.83
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 16.27 | 19.70 | 15.90 | 16.34 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 32.28 | 30.05 | 27.50 | 22.01 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 24,888 | 23,554 | 24,471 | 23,399 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.30 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5,129.18 | 5,411.19 | 6,066.43 | 7,021.02 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 25.55% | 30.36% | 30.98% | 24.99% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,201.42 | 1,505.47 | 1,599.54 | 1,580.63 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 23.42% | 27.82% | 26.37% | 22.51% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 965.46 | 1,233.04 | 1,217.60 | 1,320.68 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 387.19 | 404.97 | 414.21 | 483.26 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.34 | 6.70 | 7.54 | 8.80 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 1.22 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.63 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.06 | 2.33 | 1.95 | 2.15 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.31) | (1.14) | (0.98) | (1.05) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.75 | 1.19 | 0.97 | 1.09 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.76 | 10.51 | 10.67 | 12.04 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 809.44 | 807.74 | 804.88 | 797.64 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 22.23 | 13.71 | 12.78 | 13.14 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.35 | 3.09 | 2.59 | 2.37 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.83 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.74 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.18 | 2.94 | 2.47 | 2.08 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (7.79) | (13.11) | (12.81) | (19.37) | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,664.34 | 1,881.85 | 1,565.83 | 1,711.46 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1,058.37) | (919.20) | (786.07) | (840.36) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 605.97 | 962.66 | 779.76 | 871.10 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,170.00 | 970.77 | 285.03 | 1,586.65 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,766.43 | 2,083.91 | 1,303.41 | 1,583.92 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (892.88) | (799.95) | (1,758.72) | (2,085.63) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 7,897.77 | 8,490.32 | 8,586.42 | 9,600.38 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.30% | 10.34% | 9.62% | 10.12% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.01% | 11.46% | 14.77% | 12.46% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.68% | 15.04% | 14.15% | 14.28% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. stands as a powerhouse in China’s booming express delivery market, powering e-commerce giants like Alibaba and JD.com amid 130+ billion annual parcels. Since its 2016 NYSE IPO, revenue has surged from $1.4 billion to $6.1 billion in 2024 at an 18% CAGR, with projections accelerating to $7.0 billion in 2025 and $8.5 billion by 2027. Efficiency gains shine through doubled revenue per employee to $248,000, stabilizing margins nearing 30%, and exploding free cash flow from $606 million to $780 million, all while navigating post-pandemic normalization and macro headwinds.
Profitability is rebounding sharply: EBT margins expanded to 26.4%, EPS is set to rise 31% to $1.97 by 2027, and ROE/ROIC metrics outpace peers, backed by a fortress balance sheet featuring net cash and shrinking debt. Yet, the stock trades at deeply compressed multiples—P/E at 13x, P/S at 2.6x—disconnecting from fundamentals, a far cry from historical 4-6x EV/Sales peaks.
Analysts scream opportunity with average price targets implying 589% upside, fueled by Alibaba synergies, rural expansion, and 20%+ FCF margins. Despite risks like U.S. tariffs and price wars, ZTO’s scale and resilience position it as an undervalued growth engine ready for a major re-rating—don’t miss the full story on why this could deliver mid-30% annual returns.
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