Saturday 10 October 2026
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO Industrials Integrated Freight & Logistics
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $7.0 billion, up 15.7% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 29.8%, EPS grew 73.5%, free cash flow grew 121.4% and total debt rose 25.3%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for ten consecutive years.
20.15
0.25
+1.26%
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Target Price Range
Analyst price targets
Free accountTen years at a glance Fiscal years to December
| Group | Line | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Trend | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price, $ | |||||||||||||||
| Price, $ | Low | 12.01 | 11.14 | 14.51 | 15.30 | 21.58 | 25.23 | 16.27 | 19.70 | 15.90 | 16.34 |
Analyst estimates 2026–2028 Powerpack |
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| High | 18.45 | 18.08 | 22.67 | 23.67 | 38.99 | 38.96 | 32.28 | 30.05 | 27.50 | 22.01 | |||||
| People | |||||||||||||||
| People | Employees | 17,324 | 16,023 | 15,700 | 19,009 | 22,536 | 23,865 | 24,888 | 23,554 | 24,471 | 23,399 | ||||
| Revenue/emp, $m | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.30 | |||||
| Income, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Income, $m | Revenue | 1,410 | 2,007 | 2,560 | 3,176 | 3,864 | 4,771 | 5,129 | 5,411 | 6,066 | 7,021 | ||||
| Gross margin, % | 35.17 | 33.27 | 30.47 | 29.95 | 23.15 | 21.67 | 25.55 | 30.36 | 30.98 | 24.99 | |||||
| EBT | 406 | 587 | 776 | 971 | 772 | 901 | 1,201 | 1,505 | 1,600 | 1,581 | |||||
| EBT margin, % | 28.81 | 29.26 | 30.31 | 30.56 | 19.97 | 18.88 | 23.42 | 27.82 | 26.37 | 22.51 | |||||
| Net income | 295 | 486 | 638 | 815 | 663 | 738 | 965 | 1,233 | 1,218 | 1,321 | |||||
| Depreciation | 47 | 86 | 124 | 182 | 282 | 349 | 387 | 405 | 414 | 483 | |||||
| Per share, $ | |||||||||||||||
| Per share, $ | Revenue | 2.22 | 2.80 | 3.41 | 4.05 | 4.85 | 5.82 | 6.34 | 6.70 | 7.54 | 8.80 | ||||
| Earnings | 0.42 | 0.68 | 0.85 | 1.04 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 1.22 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.63 | |||||
| Cash flow | 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.85 | 1.16 | 0.95 | 1.38 | 2.06 | 2.33 | 1.95 | 2.15 | |||||
| Capex | (0.61) | (0.61) | (0.76) | (0.96) | (1.77) | (1.76) | (1.31) | (1.14) | (0.98) | (1.05) | |||||
| Free cash flow | (0.03) | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.20 | (0.82) | (0.38) | 0.75 | 1.19 | 0.97 | 1.09 | |||||
| Book value | 4.48 | 4.60 | 6.63 | 7.04 | 9.45 | 9.36 | 9.76 | 10.51 | 10.67 | 12.04 | |||||
| Shares, m | 635 | 717 | 752 | 784 | 796 | 820 | 809 | 808 | 805 | 798 | |||||
| Valuation, × | |||||||||||||||
| Valuation, × | P/E | 29.73 | 24.88 | 18.20 | 22.45 | 36.45 | 31.36 | 22.23 | 13.71 | 12.78 | 13.14 | ||||
| P/S | 6.18 | 5.87 | 4.65 | 5.76 | 6.01 | 4.85 | 4.35 | 3.09 | 2.59 | 2.37 | |||||
| P/B | 6.76 | 3.57 | 2.39 | 3.32 | 3.09 | 3.01 | 2.83 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.74 | |||||
| EV/Sales | 5.95 | 5.04 | 3.63 | 5.06 | 5.37 | 4.57 | 4.18 | 2.94 | 2.47 | 2.08 | |||||
| EV/FCF | 0.00 | 18.14 | 14.50 | (20.11) | (8.18) | (7.17) | (7.79) | (13.11) | (12.81) | (19.37) | |||||
| Cash, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Cash, $m | Operating cash flow | 365 | 558 | 641 | 906 | 759 | 1,133 | 1,664 | 1,882 | 1,566 | 1,711 | ||||
| Capex | (387) | (434) | (569) | (751) | (1,411) | (1,445) | (1,058) | (919) | (786) | (840) | |||||
| Free cash flow | (22) | 124 | 72 | 155 | (652) | (312) | 606 | 963 | 780 | 871 | |||||
| Balance, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Balance, $m | Working capital | 1,392 | 1,265 | 2,341 | 1,927 | 1,989 | 890 | 1,170 | 971 | 285 | 1,587 | ||||
| Total debt | 65 | 38 | — | 115 | 297 | 630 | 1,766 | 2,084 | 1,303 | 1,584 | |||||
| Net debt | (1,652) | (1,652) | (2,650) | (2,239) | (2,468) | (1,346) | (893) | (800) | (1,759) | (2,086) | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity | 2,845 | 3,295 | 4,984 | 5,516 | 7,525 | 7,678 | 7,898 | 8,490 | 8,586 | 9,600 | |||||
| Returns, % | |||||||||||||||
| Returns, % | ROA | 11.15 | 13.23 | 13.09 | 13.18 | 8.44 | 7.89 | 9.30 | 10.34 | 9.62 | 10.12 | ||||
| ROIC | 20.91 | 21.91 | 16.87 | 14.96 | 9.01 | 8.52 | 10.01 | 11.46 | 14.77 | 12.46 | |||||
| ROE | 14.84 | 15.82 | 15.40 | 15.52 | 10.14 | 9.82 | 12.68 | 15.04 | 14.15 | 14.28 | |||||
Negative figures in brackets.
Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Jun 2026
Charts ten years each
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. vs peers in Integrated Freight & Logistics (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Revenue growth (Q) | EPS growth (Q) | FCF growth (Q) | Gross margin (Q) | EBIT margin (Q) | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX FedEx Corporation | $69.0B | 15.7× | 15.5× | +12.54% (above 0%: growing) | −4.07% (below 0%: shrinking) | +62.20% (above 0%: growing) | 69.62% | 6.20% | Compare |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $25.3B | 26.8× | 30.2× | +19.28% (above 0%: growing) | +24.41% (above 0%: growing) | −91.47% (below 0%: shrinking) | 14.96% | 5.18% | Compare |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $25.2B | 28.0× | 23.6× | +32.07% (above 0%: growing) | +50.37% (above 0%: growing) | +2.03% (above 0%: growing) | 30.99% | 9.98% | Compare |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $21.5B | 32.5× | 38.8× | +19.37% (above 0%: growing) | +45.80% (above 0%: growing) | +29.82% (above 0%: growing) | 41.31% | 7.42% | Compare |
| ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | $10.9B | 10.6× | 11.3× | +29.83% (above 0%: growing) | +73.53% (above 0%: growing) | +121.35% (above 0%: growing) | 25.66% | 22.19% | |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $5.8B | 43.8× | 38.6× | +18.09% (above 0%: growing) | +20.00% (above 0%: growing) | −950.32% (below 0%: shrinking) | 21.71% | 4.62% | Compare |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $5.3B | 40.5× | 26.3× | +4.30% (above 0%: growing) | −4.35% (below 0%: shrinking) | +127.91% (above 0%: growing) | 14.76% | 2.24% | Compare |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $2.3B | 13.4× | 11.1× | −2.25% (below 0%: shrinking) | +117.65% (above 0%: growing) | +37.11% (above 0%: growing) | 53.66% | 23.66% | Compare |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | $1.6B | 14.7× | 23.7× | −5.31% (below 0%: shrinking) | +23.08% (above 0%: growing) | −37.43% (below 0%: shrinking) | 26.84% | 4.22% | Compare |
| Median of peers | $13.6B | 27.4× | 25.0× | +15.32% | +23.75% | +15.93% | 28.92% | 5.69% |
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) key facts
- Strength: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $7.0 billion, up 15.7% from fiscal 2024.
- Strength: Net income was $1.3 billion, or $1.63 per share (basic), a net margin of 18.5%.
- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is an Integrated Freight & Logistics company in the Industrials sector, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
- As of October 9, 2026, ZTO traded at $20.15, a market capitalization of $10.9 billion.
- At that price the stock trades at 10.6× trailing-twelve-month earnings and 1.9× sales; its P/E is higher than 1% of its own readings over the past ten years.
- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. pays an annual dividend of $0.39 per share, a yield of 1.94%, with a payout ratio of 21.0%.
- Return on equity was 14.3% and debt-to-equity 0.34.
- Its Piotroski F-score is 7 out of 9 and its Altman Z-score is 4.65 (safe zone) for fiscal 2025.