ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO Industrials Integrated Freight & Logistics
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $7.0 billion, up 15.7% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 29.8%, EPS grew 73.5%, free cash flow grew 121.4% and total debt rose 25.3%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for ten consecutive years.
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Altman Z-score
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is 4.65, in the safe zone (above 2.99).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 4.65 | 0.81 |
| FY2024 | 3.84 | (0.23) |
| FY2023 | 4.07 | (1.09) |
| FY2022 | 5.17 | (2.61) |
| FY2021 | 7.78 | (2.67) |
| FY2020 | 10.45 | (1.50) |
| FY2019 | 11.95 | 1.20 |
| FY2018 | 10.75 | (1.09) |
| FY2017 | 11.84 | 1.60 |
| FY2016 | 10.25 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | 0.12 | — | 0.15 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | 0.47 | — | 0.66 | |
| EBIT / total assets | 0.12 | — | 0.38 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 4.88 | — | 2.93 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.54 | — | 0.54 | |
| Altman Z-score | Safe zone | 4.65 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Safe zone | 6.06 | ||
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. compare | 9.6× |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. compare | 9.2× |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. compare | 8.9× |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. compare | 5.8× |
| ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | 4.7× |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. compare | 4.0× |
| FDX FedEx Corporation compare | 2.6× |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. compare | 2.2× |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. compare | 1.6× |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets