| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 0.66 |
—
—
—
|
| 2025 | 0.60 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2024 | 0.52 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 0.46 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2022 | 0.40 |
—
—
—
|
| 2021 | 0.08 |
—
|
| 2020 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2019 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2017 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 401.12 | 260.05 | 266.79 | 295.94 |
| Receivables | 189.71 | 147.90 | 174.77 | 189.21 |
| Inventory | — | — | — | — |
| Other | 0.45 | 2.87 | 0.88 | 3.44 |
| 591.27 | 410.82 | 442.44 | 488.59 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 193.21 | 181.07 | 177.57 | 173.06 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | — |
| Other | 121.68 | 109.19 | 110.46 | 135.49 |
| 314.89 | 290.26 | 288.03 | 308.55 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 358.51 | 478.81 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 350.30 | 318.98 | 324.94 | 317.63 |
1,311.85
|
| ’24 | 319.42 | 336.73 | 333.14 | 326.61 |
1,315.89
|
| ’23 | 308.38 | 280.29 | 315.68 | 322.63 |
1,226.98
|
| ’22 | 377.84 | 484.65 | 482.96 | 349.04 |
1,694.49
|
| ’21 | 209.11 | 252.05 | 285.04 | 332.15 |
1,078.35
|
| ’20 | 181.37 | 82.84 | 121.07 | 156.03 |
541.30
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 197.62 | 384.03 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 224.49 | 198.70 | 247.06 | 208.40 |
878.64
|
| ’24 | 210.93 | 269.40 | 217.89 | 222.63 |
920.85
|
| ’23 | 219.82 | 201.77 | 187.31 | 246.88 |
855.79
|
| ’22 | 238.87 | 379.14 | 410.68 | 268.00 |
1,296.69
|
| ’21 | 118.15 | 187.88 | 221.90 | 260.54 |
788.48
|
| ’20 | 134.88 | 30.96 | 65.16 | 79.12 |
310.12
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 96.64 | 256.66 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 102.53 | 91.97 | 133.67 | 70.62 |
398.79
|
| ’24 | 97.04 | 146.51 | 103.19 | 84.99 |
431.74
|
| ’23 | 66.20 | 90.58 | 75.88 | 164.45 |
397.11
|
| ’22 | 168.59 | 267.45 | 283.29 | 150.21 |
869.54
|
| ’21 | 76.24 | 147.25 | 154.14 | 187.99 |
565.62
|
| ’20 | 40.67 | (28.86) | 42.89 | 33.21 |
87.91
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 0.54 | 0.97 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.37 |
1.73
|
| ’24 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.44 |
1.94
|
| ’23 | 0.50 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.53 |
2.04
|
| ’22 | 0.90 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.20 |
4.71
|
| ’21 | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 0.82 |
2.36
|
| ’20 | (7.34) | (0.11) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
(7.27)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 18.01 | 18.72 | 19.16 | 19.09 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 30.31 | 24.29 | 29.02 | 26.84 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 213 | 247 | 252 | 262 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 7.96 | 4.97 | 5.22 | 5.01 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,694.49 | 1,226.98 | 1,315.89 | 1,311.85 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 96.18% | 96.39% | 96.97% | 94.89% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,056.89 | 549.81 | 493.14 | 417.41 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 62.37% | 44.81% | 37.48% | 31.82% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,050.25 | 442.60 | 397.33 | 337.28 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 249.01 | 329.05 | 418.95 | 439.93 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.04 | 6.52 | 7.06 | 7.07 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 4.73 | 2.04 | 1.94 | 1.73 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.92 | 4.55 | 4.94 | 4.73 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.28) | (2.44) | (2.62) | (2.59) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.64 | 2.11 | 2.32 | 2.15 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.28 | 10.00 | 10.55 | 10.77 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 187.43 | 188.17 | 186.47 | 185.58 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.70 | 10.48 | 12.11 | 12.73 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.31 | 3.10 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.39 | 2.15 | 2.22 | 2.03 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.29 | 3.29 | 3.42 | 3.20 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.46 | 10.17 | 10.41 | 10.51 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,296.69 | 855.79 | 920.85 | 878.64 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (427.15) | (458.68) | (489.11) | (479.84) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 869.54 | 397.11 | 431.74 | 398.79 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 510.47 | 276.39 | 120.56 | 154.41 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 394.38 | 392.84 | 392.51 | 393.25 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (281.06) | (8.28) | 132.46 | 126.47 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,740.19 | 1,882.67 | 1,967.33 | 1,999.17 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 41.01% | 14.57% | 13.13% | 11.36% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 45.99% | 17.82% | 15.24% | 12.91% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 63.59% | 21.44% | 19.01% | 16.40% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROE
|
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) exemplifies the upstream sector’s volatility, with revenues surging 320% to $1.69 billion in 2022 before a 28% drop to $1.23 billion in 2023, tightly correlated to oil prices and stock highs from $10 in 2017 to $30 in 2022. Analysts project modest 7% revenue growth to $1.32 billion in 2024 and 24% cumulative rise to $1.63 billion by 2028, alongside EPS climbing 26% to $2.44, implying 8% average upside (high 16%, low -18%). Resilient gross margins above 93% from low-cost Eagle Ford assets support ROE swings from 64% in 2022 to a projected 12%, while free cash flow per share rebounded to $4.64 in 2022 before stabilizing near $2.15 amid heavy $440-500 million annual capex.
Insider conviction shines through $409,000 in buys by the CEO and directors in early 2025 with zero sells, bolstering a pristine balance sheet (net debt $126 million, ROIC 15%). Yet contrarians flag vulnerability: EBT margins eroding to 37%, capex consuming 60% of operating cash flow, and risks from sub-$70 oil, energy transition pressures, and dilution at 186 million shares. Trading at 3x PS and 2.2x PB, MGY tempts as a rebound play but risks mean reversion in a decarbonizing world—insiders bet big, but macros could trap value.
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