| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 24.30 |
—
|
| 2025 | 20.96 |
—
—
|
| 2024 | 5.46 |
—
—
|
| 2023 | 4.50 |
—
—
|
| 2022 | 3.96 |
—
—
|
| 2021 | 4.55 |
—
—
|
| 2020 | 4.24 |
—
—
|
| 2019 | 4.02 |
—
—
|
| 2018 | 3.95 |
—
—
|
| 2017 | 3.76 |
—
—
|
| 2016 | 9.59 |
—
—
—
—
—
|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 97,388.17 | 105,059.90 | 109,837.60 | 84,108.53 |
| Receivables | 103,248.70 | 101,306.70 | 115,565.20 | 115,550.00 |
| Inventory | 31,777.04 | 30,348.33 | 33,890.97 | 34,459.78 |
| Other | 7,114.58 | 8,004.37 | 23,345.08 | 10,654.43 |
| 239,528.50 | 244,719.30 | 282,638.90 | 244,772.70 |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 36,234.36 | 36,480.49 | 38,655.84 | 35,807.73 |
| ST’ Debt | 106,303.40 | 104,474.80 | 116,035.30 | 112,572.50 |
| Other | 37,480.57 | 37,909.90 | 48,461.97 | 44,124.74 |
| 201,327.60 | 194,265.90 | 221,793.10 | 209,403.80 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Jun | Sep | Dec | Mar | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 85,210.02 | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’26 | 84,547.95 | — | — | — |
334,520.70
|
| ’25 | 75,762.42 | — | — | — |
317,042.30
|
| ’24 | 76,991.87 | 78,900.02 | 81,879.51 | 73,386.35 |
311,157.80
|
| ’23 | 65,381.59 | 66,371.27 | 69,258.27 | 73,930.69 |
274,941.80
|
| ’22 | 72,213.58 | 68,666.24 | 68,514.53 | 69,883.27 |
279,277.60
|
| ’21 | 42,787.40 | 63,679.61 | 78,240.30 | 71,109.86 |
255,817.20
|
| Jun | Sep | Dec | Mar | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 3,380.27 | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’26 | 12,947.72 | 7,075.62 | 24,503.30 | — |
36,121.27
|
| ’25 | 4,375.43 | 7,799.66 | 18,636.59 | — |
24,399.76
|
| ’24 | 9,914.99 | 5,803.76 | 3,227.01 | 10,078.21 |
29,023.97
|
| ’23 | 5,883.47 | 6,059.87 | 1,020.71 | 8,903.51 |
21,867.56
|
| ’22 | 8,726.52 | 8,315.78 | 6,202.97 | 9,886.00 |
33,131.27
|
| ’21 | 6,261.24 | 5,860.19 | 5,485.82 | 8,028.07 |
25,635.32
|
| Jun | Sep | Dec | Mar | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (2,208.77) | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’26 | 6,840.50 | 851.65 | 6,290.92 | — |
10,338.36
|
| ’25 | (1,113.57) | 1,615.50 | 366.46 | — |
1,437.00
|
| ’24 | 4,757.48 | 2,034.58 | (1,460.64) | 3,787.60 |
9,119.02
|
| ’23 | 2,343.40 | 2,923.92 | (2,658.88) | 4,531.37 |
7,139.82
|
| ’22 | 2,272.76 | 2,885.62 | 2,618.05 | 5,326.62 |
13,103.04
|
| ’21 | 1,225.79 | 1,040.35 | (1,193.24) | 2,418.82 |
3,491.71
|
| Jun | Sep | Dec | Mar | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 7.57 | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’26 | 4.47 | — | — | — |
19.61
|
| ’25 | 6.35 | — | — | — |
23.61
|
| ’24 | 7.05 | 6.54 | 6.81 | 4.99 |
25.35
|
| ’23 | 4.14 | 2.30 | 3.78 | 3.07 |
13.28
|
| ’22 | 5.87 | 4.09 | 5.03 | 3.34 |
18.28
|
| ’21 | 1.06 | 3.15 | 5.67 | 5.18 |
14.99
|
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 130.07 | 132.35 | 159.04 | 155.00 | 166.10 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 213.74 | 195.65 | 255.23 | 220.56 | 248.90 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 372,817 | 375,235 | 380,793 | 383,853 | 390,927 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.75 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.86 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 279,277.60 | 274,941.80 | 311,157.80 | 317,042.30 | 334,520.70 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 19.03% | 16.99% | 20.77% | 19.94% | 16.70% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 35,515.73 | 27,148.63 | 48,059.09 | 42,336.29 | 34,009.77 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.72% | 9.87% | 15.45% | 13.35% | 10.17% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 25,584.06 | 18,447.96 | 34,992.80 | 31,612.38 | 26,306.02 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 16,214.73 | 15,095.29 | 14,400.76 | 14,858.14 | 15,790.63 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 201.10 | 201.30 | 230.27 | 239.23 | 256.67 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 18.28 | 13.28 | 25.35 | 23.61 | 19.61 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 23.86 | 16.01 | 21.48 | 18.41 | 27.71 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (14.42) | (10.78) | (14.73) | (17.33) | (19.78) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.44 | 5.23 | 6.75 | 1.08 | 7.93 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 174.03 | 158.55 | 179.94 | 183.66 | 207.72 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,388.74 | 1,365.84 | 1,351.29 | 1,325.25 | 1,303.33 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.83 | 10.66 | 9.54 | 7.15 | 9.11 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | — |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.90 | 0.70 | 1.05 | 0.77 | 0.85 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.04 | 0.89 | 1.35 | 0.98 | 1.03 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.47 | 1.25 | 1.55 | 1.31 | 1.38 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 31.25 | 47.99 | 52.87 | 87.50 | 30.29 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 33,131.27 | 21,867.56 | 29,023.97 | 24,399.76 | 36,121.27 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (20,028.23) | (14,727.74) | (19,904.95) | (22,962.76) | (25,782.91) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13,103.04 | 7,139.82 | 9,119.02 | 1,437.00 | 10,338.36 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 16,733.20 | 18,500.50 | 38,200.90 | 50,453.40 | 60,845.80 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 235,817.57 | 217,414.03 | 252,276.30 | 256,033.00 | 285,156.10 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 159,091.53 | 149,092.49 | 154,888.13 | 150,973.10 | 175,318.50 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 241,677.90 | 216,555.20 | 243,151.40 | 243,400.80 | 270,732.40 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.27% | 3.15% | 5.82% | 5.07% | 3.87% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.16% | 3.45% | 5.80% | 5.02% | 3.48% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.79% | 7.92% | 14.84% | 12.93% | 9.88% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROE
|
Toyota Motor Corporation delivered blockbuster 2024 results—record revenue of $311 billion (up 13%) and net income surging 89% to $35 billion, with EBT margins at a stellar 15.5%—showcasing pricing power and supply chain resilience amid rivals’ EV frenzy. Yet, this contrarian analysis uncovers lurking perils: free cash flow per share projected to crater 84% to $1.08 in 2025 from $6.75, while total debt swells to $256 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of Toyota’s hybrid dominance as an EV tsunami looms.
Profitability has doubled net income per share since 2016, ROE hit 14.8%, and the balance sheet boasts $243 billion in equity, buffering past shocks like COVID and chip shortages. Valuation screams bargain—PE around 9x, PS under 1x—versus frothy peers, with stock rallying 160% from lows. But forecasts flag margin compression, capex strains, and dubious hypergrowth models, compounded by insider silence and regulatory headwinds like EU ICE bans.
Underappreciated risks—a debt mountain, yen volatility, FCF evaporation (-92% projected), and lagging EV/software execution—paint Toyota as a potential value trap at current multiples, with thin 16% upside versus 20% downside. Is this the hybrid peak or a house of cards? Dive into the full breakdown for the contrarian edge.
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