Starbucks Corporation SBUX
- Market cap
- $106.5B
- P/E
- 54.5×
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Target Price Range
Analyst price targets
Free account| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.84 | 52.58 | 47.37 | 61.40 | 50.02 | 95.92 | 68.39 | 89.21 | 71.55 | 75.50 |
Analyst estimates 2026–2028 Powerpack |
Low Price
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| 61.79 | 64.87 | 68.98 | 99.72 | 107.14 | 126.32 | 117.80 | 115.48 | 103.32 | 117.46 |
High Price
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| 254,000 | 277,000 | 291,000 | 346,000 | 349,000 | 383,000 | 402,000 | 381,000 | 361,000 | 381,000 |
Employees
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| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Revenue/Emp
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| 21,316 | 22,387 | 24,720 | 26,509 | 23,518 | 29,061 | 32,250 | 35,976 | 36,176 | 37,184 |
Revenue
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| 60.08% | 68.44% | 67.92% | 67.83% | 67.28% | 69.93% | 68.01% | 68.29% | 69.09% | 68.65% |
Gross Margin
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| 4,199 | 4,318 | 5,780 | 4,466 | 1,164 | 5,357 | 4,232 | 5,402 | 4,970 | 2,507 |
EBT
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| 19.70% | 19.29% | 23.38% | 16.85% | 4.95% | 18.43% | 13.12% | 15.02% | 13.74% | 6.74% |
EBT Margin
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| 2,819 | 2,885 | 4,518 | 3,595 | 925 | 4,200 | 3,283 | 4,125 | 3,762 | 1,857 |
Net Income
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| 1,030 | 1,067 | 1,306 | 1,449 | 1,503 | 1,524 | 1,529 | 1,450 | 1,592 | 1,772 |
Depreciation
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| 14.48 | 15.44 | 17.88 | 21.71 | 20.05 | 24.68 | 27.96 | 31.37 | 31.91 | 32.73 |
Revenue/Sh
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| 1.90 | 1.97 | 3.24 | 2.92 | 0.79 | 3.54 | 2.83 | 3.58 | 3.31 | 1.63 |
Earnings/Sh
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| 3.19 | 2.93 | 8.63 | 4.13 | 1.36 | 5.09 | 3.81 | 5.24 | 5.38 | 4.18 |
Cash Flow/Sh
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| (0.98) | (1.05) | (1.43) | (1.48) | (1.26) | (1.25) | (1.60) | (1.94) | (2.45) | (2.03) |
Capex/Sh
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| 2.21 | 1.89 | 7.20 | 2.65 | 0.10 | 3.84 | 2.22 | 3.30 | 2.93 | 2.15 |
Free CF/Sh
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| 4.00 | 3.76 | 0.85 | (5.10) | (6.65) | (4.51) | (7.54) | (6.97) | (6.56) | (7.12) |
Book Value/Sh
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| 1,472 | 1,450 | 1,383 | 1,221 | 1,173 | 1,178 | 1,153 | 1,147 | 1,134 | 1,136 |
Shares
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| 28.49 | 27.31 | 17.31 | 30.18 | 111.58 | 31.07 | 29.88 | 25.46 | 29.45 | 51.59 |
PE Ratio
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| 3.74 | 3.48 | 3.11 | 4.07 | 4.28 | 4.47 | 3.01 | 2.91 | 3.06 | 2.58 |
PS Ratio
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| 13.53 | 14.29 | 65.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
PB Ratio
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| 3.80 | 3.54 | 3.13 | 4.39 | 4.76 | 4.75 | 3.38 | 3.22 | 3.39 | 2.92 |
EV/Sales
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| 24.86 | 29.01 | 7.77 | 35.94 | 981.12 | 30.51 | 42.66 | 30.63 | 36.94 | 44.52 |
EV/FCF
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| 4,698 | 4,252 | 11,938 | 5,047 | 1,598 | 5,989 | 4,397 | 6,009 | 6,096 | 4,748 |
Op' Cash Flow
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| (1,440) | (1,519) | (1,976) | (1,807) | (1,484) | (1,470) | (1,841) | (2,224) | (2,777) | (2,305) |
Capex
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| 3,258 | 2,732 | 9,961 | 3,240 | 114 | 4,519 | 2,556 | 3,785 | 3,318 | 2,442 |
FCF
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| 211 | 1,063 | 6,810 | (515) | 460 | 1,605 | (2,133) | (2,042) | (2,223) | (2,828) |
Working Cap'
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| 3,585 | 3,937 | 9,440 | 11,172 | 15,910 | 14,616 | 15,044 | 15,400 | 15,568 | 16,075 |
Total Debt
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| 1,322 | 1,246 | 502 | 8,415 | 11,277 | 7,998 | 11,861 | 11,447 | 12,025 | 12,608 |
Net Debt
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| 5,891 | 5,457 | 1,176 | (6,231) | (7,799) | (5,314) | (8,699) | (7,988) | (7,442) | (8,089) |
Sh' Equity
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| 21.08% | 20.12% | 23.46% | 16.60% | 3.82% | 13.82% | 11.05% | 14.37% | 12.37% | 5.86% |
ROA
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| 36.15% | 38.55% | 144.63% | 116.70% | 28.06% | 113.48% | 91.27% | 106.08% | 73.75% | 40.62% |
ROIC
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| 48.12% | 50.84% | 136.24% | (142.40%) | (13.23%) | (64.04%) | (46.84%) | (49.44%) | (48.75%) | (23.91%) |
ROE
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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) key facts
- Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a Restaurants company in the Consumer Cyclical sector, listed on Nasdaq.
- Starbucks Corporation’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended September 2025) was $37.2 billion, up 2.79% from fiscal 2024.
- Net income was $1.9 billion, or $1.63 per share (basic), a net margin of 4.99%.
- As of September 25, 2026, SBUX traded at $94.86, a market capitalization of $106.5 billion.
- At that price the stock trades at 54.5× trailing-twelve-month earnings and 2.8× sales.
- Starbucks Corporation pays an annual dividend of $2.28 per share, a yield of 2.39%, with a payout ratio of 63.4%.
- Return on equity was −23.9% and debt-to-equity -1.73.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Latest News
25 Sep
Starbucks agreed to settle Florida's discrimination lawsuit for $1 million with no admission of wrongdoing, pledging not to use race- or sex-based quotas or preferences in hiring, promotions, or pay nationwide. The four-year settlement requires annual compliance certifications and preserves Florida’s ability to pursue alleged breaches. Florida had sought up to $10,000 per claim and higher penalties. The payment is small relative to Starbucks' revenue and ends the Florida case, though Missouri's similar suit remains on appeal. The deal allows management to focus on its turnaround, but the nationwide scope creates ongoing governance burdens and potential pressure from other states, regulators, and critics, potentially influencing future diversity policies and investor sentiment. Longer-term nationwide compliance and potential spillover risk create governance and regulatory exposure beyond the modest $1 million cost.
Starbucks reported a 1.4% quarterly revenue drop driven mainly by converting China stores into a licensed joint venture, while comparable-store sales rose 7.9%—driven largely by store closures, sales transfers, and delivery. The China JV now generates product sales and royalties plus its share of JV profit instead of full-store revenue, reducing reported revenue. The company will close about 250 underperforming North American stores and cut net openings in fiscal 2026 to about 440 (down from 600–650). Over three years, revenue growth slowed to the mid-2% range and operating margin sits around 10.1%, below the three-year average. The stock trades at roughly 54x trailing earnings versus 22x for the S&P 500, with future performance hinging on sustained U.S. comps and the pace of the turnaround. China licensing shift and slower store growth raise turnaround risk and could meaningfully affect revenue visibility and investor sentiment.
Starbucks said it will close 250 underperforming North American coffeehouses, about 1% of its more than 18,000 sites in the region. The company has not named specific locations. Chief operating officer Mike Grams said the move targets outlets where the company cannot consistently deliver the Starbucks experience or achieve acceptable financial performance. The closures will trigger roughly $300 million in restructuring charges, including $200 million in cash for lease exits and employee separation and $100 million in non-cash asset impairment. Starbucks trimmed its 2026 net new openings guidance to about 440 worldwide, down from 600–650. Most closures are expected before fiscal 2026 ends. The plan follows a prior restructuring a year ago that closed several underperforming stores, including the Seattle roastery. Starbucks still sees long-term growth opportunities in North America and will continue to build a new-store pipeline. Closing 250 stores and $300 million in restructuring charges indicate a significant portfolio optimization with near-term costs, but potential long-term profitability improvements from a leaner, higher-performing network.
Starbucks to close about 250 North American stores this week as part of the Back to Starbucks portfolio reset, targeting outlets that fail to meet customer/partner experience standards or lack viable financial returns. Some sites were in unsuitable locations; others would require remodels that aren’t economical. Management says it now has clearer visibility into underperformers and could close locations without adequate returns while potentially opening new stores in stronger trade areas. The move comes with improving operating trends: North America comps up 8.1% in Q3, U.S. up 7.9% on transaction and ticket growth. Closures are expected to generate about $300 million in restructuring charges. Starbucks trimmed its 2026 forecast for net-new global coffeehouse openings to roughly 440 from 600–650, while accelerating an uplift program to at least 1,500 locations by end-FY2026. The strategy emphasizes fewer, stronger locations and reallocating capital to high-potential stores. Pruning underperforming stores and reallocating capital to higher-return sites could materially reshape growth and margins.
Starbucks will close 250 more stores, about 1% of its 18,000+ North American cafes, as part of a two-year restructuring under CEO Brian Niccol. The move will cost roughly $300 million in charges—$200 million to exit leases and severance, $100 million to write down assets. Fiscal 2026 net new openings are cut to 440, all international, from 600-650. Shares slipped 0.5% to $93.65, about 6% lower since Niccol's CNBC declaration. The turnaround includes renovating 1,000 stores, retraining staff, and stronger customer experience; last quarter same-store sales rose 7.9% versus 5.7% expected, and North America margins hit 14.4%. Niccol also sold a 60% stake in China for $4 billion, signaling a leaner footprint. 'Back to its roots' means fewer stores going forward. Store closures and revised international openings signal a meaningful restructuring likely to materially affect margins and growth trajectory.
Starbucks (SBUX) finished at $94.89, up 1.32%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 0.51% gain after a prior 12.69% drop. Investors await its upcoming earnings report, with consensus expecting $0.72 per share (about +38.5% YoY) and revenue around $9.27 billion, down ~3.1% YoY. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus calls for $2.62 in earnings on $38.03 billion in revenue (roughly +23% and +2.3% YoY). The stock trades at a forward P/E of 35.7 (vs. industry 20.49) and a PEG of 1.63. The Retail - Restaurants group shows a weak industry rank, but Zacks notes that estimate revisions can influence near-term stock moves. Starbucks currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Near-term earnings expectations and revisions could move sentiment, but no major catalysts or guidance changes are presented.
United Steelworkers union condemned Starbucks' decision to close about 250 stores across North America, roughly 1% of its North American locations, with closures possible as early as this week. The USW argues the move rewards profits over workers, noting many affected employees are young, juggling school and multiple jobs amid higher living costs. No USW-represented stores have been confirmed for closure, but the union warns of impacts on baristas and their families across Canada and the United States. The closures follow another major round last year. Lunny called for Starbucks to offer affected workers jobs at other locations, meaningful retraining and financial support, proper notice, and a real transition plan. The release also invites Starbucks workers to connect with the union for organizing help. Store closures and union pressure may dent short-term revenue and higher transition costs, affecting investor sentiment.
Starbucks will close about 250 North America coffeehouses this week, roughly 1% of its NA network, targeting underperforming locations or those without a path to acceptable financial performance. Closures are described as a routine part of portfolio management. The company says North America is returning to strong growth, with faster service and a more consistent, warmer store experience as it accelerates 1,500 coffeehouse uplifts and standardizes Green Apron Service under the Back to Starbucks strategy. CEO Brian Niccol introduced this strategy in 2024 and the plan includes finishing the uplifts by fiscal year-end 2026 and expanding in fiscal 2027. Financial signals cited include Q3 same-store sales growth of 7.9%, above the 5.7% Wall Street consensus. The overall message is to optimize the footprint while continuing growth initiatives expected to boost profitability and customer experience. Portfolio optimization and ongoing uplifts could moderately boost profitability and growth but are not likely to drastically change trajectory.
24 Sep
Starbucks will close about 250 North American cafes, roughly 1% of its NA store base, as part of a push to improve financial returns under CEO Brian Niccol. The closures target underperforming locations where the company says it cannot consistently deliver the intended customer and partner experience or achieve acceptable profitability. The move follows prior actions last year cutting hundreds of stores and 900 corporate jobs. Niccol, formerly of Chipotle, has emphasized stronger execution and customer engagement via 'Green Apron Service.' Starbucks now expects around 440 global store openings in fiscal 2026, well below the previously planned 600–650. The total store count stands at about 41,000 worldwide, and shares were down about 1.2% in early trading. Portfolio rationalization via 250 NA store closures and revised global openings under a new CEO could meaningfully boost profitability and competitive positioning, though near-term sales and traffic could be impacted.
Starbucks will close about 250 underperforming cafes across North America by week’s end, about 1% of stores, following a portfolio review to ensure locations deliver the Starbucks experience and financial performance. Some sites reportedly fail to meet the required standard or show no path to acceptable profitability, even as the company continues to open new locations. COO Mike Grams said closures and openings happen annually and that the company remains committed to growth in North America, despite a renewed emphasis on higher-performing stores. The move follows the 2024 Back to Starbucks strategy to restore popular amenities and simplify operations to boost customer satisfaction and loyalty. 250 closures across North America signal a major portfolio optimization likely to impact profitability and store quality.
Starbucks will close 250 US and Canadian stores this week, cutting North American locations by about 1% as part of CEO Brian Niccol’s turnaround. Closures target underperforming sites with no path to solid financial performance or a consistent customer/partner experience. A year earlier, the company trimmed roughly 1% of its NA footprint. Simultaneously, Starbucks will remodel many stores, aiming for 1,500 'uplifts' with a cozier vibe by end of fiscal year 2026 and more in fiscal 2027. It also plans a technology hub in India next year. The move follows a solid Q3, with 7.9% same-store sales growth beating estimates; analysts say closures could modestly benefit growth. Shares have risen about 10% over the past year, though still under the S&P 500. Store closures and redesigns target higher profitability and margins, signaling a meaningful strategic shift.
Starbucks will close 250 underperforming American stores as part of its turnaround, with most closures by the fiscal year end (late September). Net openings for the year are expected to total 440 globally, down from 600–650. This marks the second year of large year-end closures (about 400 last year and 900 corporate layoffs). The closures affect about 1% of roughly 18,000 American stores, though the split between corporate and licensed locations wasn’t disclosed. The company will shutter units that do not deliver the expected coffeehouse experience or financial performance. It will accelerate remodels, having surpassed 1,000 and aiming for 1,500 by end of fiscal 2026, with more in 2027. COO Mike Grams said remodels give performance insight; impacted workers will receive transfers where possible and severance if not placed. The closures are expected to cost about $300 million, including $200 million in cash charges and $100 million in non-cash impairments. 250 closures and a $300 million cost, plus revised net openings to 440 for the year, signal a meaningful strategic pivot that could affect growth and margins.
Starbucks will close 250 underperforming stores across North America this week, about 1% of its North American network of over 18,000. COO Mike Grams said the closures are part of evaluating portfolio performance, with some locations failing to deliver the expected customer experience or financial results. The move accompanies ongoing execution of CEO Brian Niccol's Back to Starbucks turnaround plan, including improvements at roughly 1,500 locations. The company expects about $300 million in restructuring charges tied to the closures and has reduced its net new store openings forecast for the year to around 440, down from 600-650 previously. Last year, Starbucks closed over 400 stores and cut hundreds of corporate jobs. Long-term, Starbucks intends to expand in North America again. Shares were up modestly premarket, about 12% for the year. 250-store closures and $300 million restructuring charges indicate a material near-term cost and portfolio rebalancing that could alter growth trajectory.
Starbucks will close about 250 underperforming North American cafes this week to cut costs and boost returns, per the Wall Street Journal, marking Niccol’s second round of store cuts since Sept 2024. Closures will trigger roughly $300 million in restructuring charges. COO Mike Grams said some baristas from closing stores will be transferred and severance offered to departing employees. The move follows a restructuring approved in Sept 2025, targeting store closures and a revamped support organization under Back to Starbucks, with North American charges near $1 billion: about $150 million in severance, $400 million in asset disposal/impairment, and $450 million for accelerated lease costs. As of late June, Starbucks operated 11,149 stores, down about 300 year over year. Niccol has cut 2,000 corporate roles and pursued further reductions, aiming for $2 billion in cost savings by 2028, with expansion outside North America and a smaller U.S. footprint. 250 store closures plus billions in restructuring costs signal a major strategic pivot with material implications for profitability and cost structure.
Starbucks plans to close 250 North American stores later this week, citing underperformance and inability to deliver the kind of customer and employee experience the company seeks. The company did not disclose which locations or how many are in the U.S., nor how many are unionized. More than 700 U.S. stores have voted to unionize since late 2021, but Starbucks opposes the effort and a labor agreement hasn't been reached. COO Mike Grams said the closures are part of a broader push to retrofit stores to be cozier and more inviting; 1,500 locations are set to be retrofitted by the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. Starbucks will shift affected employees to other stores where possible or offer severance if not. Mass closures of 250 North American stores signal a major restructuring with potential for material impact on profitability and growth trajectory.
Starbucks (SBUX) fell 13% in the last month, though it remains up about 11% year to date, leaving a cushion beneath the slide. The move appears sector-wide rather than Starbucks-specific, as peers Chipotle (CMG) and Yum! Brands (YUM) dropped 16% and 11% respectively over the same period. Consumer sentiment sits at 55.2, still below recessionary thresholds, which could pressure discretionary coffeehouse spending. No Starbucks operating fundamentals changed, and price sits around $93.25. The piece notes that the decline aligns with broader restaurant selling; the Invesco PBJ fund is down 7% while the SPY is up about 0.5%. The debate centers on whether the group's markdown is a temporary rotation or the start of a broader reset. Bulls say the stock still has a year-to-date cushion; bears warn of further group-driven pressure. Group-wide pressure with no change in Starbucks fundamentals, implying a moderate impact on trajectory.
Starbucks will shut down about 1% of its North American stores, roughly 250 locations, and trim its fiscal-year target for new store openings as part of portfolio optimization of its store footprint. Store closures and slower openings indicate a measured efficiency move that could dampen short-term sales but improve long-term margins.
Starbucks will shutter about 250 cafes in North America, roughly 1% of its 18,000 locations, in another step of CEO Brian Niccol’s turnaround plan to revive the brand and lift profitability. The closures, spanning the United States and Canada, are part of an yearslong strategy overseen by Chief Operating Officer Mike Grams to streamline operations and cut costs. The move underscores a broader effort to reset store performance amid competitive pressure and evolving consumer behavior, signaling ongoing restructuring rather than a single, abrupt pivot. 250 closures, about 1% of stores, signify ongoing footprint reduction under Niccol, with a moderate expected impact on profitability and investor sentiment.
Starbucks will close 250 locations, 1% of its North American footprint of 18,000 stores, as part of a turnaround. Closures target locations that did not deliver the customer and partner experience or were not financially viable. Management says the effort, which also includes renovations, improved service, and a simplified North America menu, is aimed at restoring growth. The company expects about $300 million in charges from closures, including about $200 million for early lease terminations and severance. No list of sites was released, and signs will appear this weekend. CEO Brian Niccol previously led a similar round of closures and layoffs as part of a $1 billion restructuring. Despite the pruning, Starbucks still plans to open about 440 new locations globally this fiscal year, down from prior guidance, while same-store sales rose 6% in the latest quarter. The move underscores a push to reposition the brand and restore momentum. The 250 store closures and $300 million in charges indicate a restructuring that could moderate near-term growth but improve long-term efficiency.
McDonald’s NEXT strategy targets a low-to-mid-50s operating margin by 2030 via restaurant modernization, technology deployment (ArchIQ AI) and simplified operations, backed by roughly $5B in rent relief and capital support for franchisees through 2030 (and $8.5B by 2036) with about four-year payback. The plan seeks ~250bp of restaurant-level efficiency, ~US$100k in annual cash flow per restaurant, and 1.5pp market-share gains in chicken and beverages by 2030, supported by a loyalty base of ~220M active members across 70 markets. If realized, free cash flow conversion could reach mid-to-high 80% by 2030. Starbucks counters with Back to Starbucks and a $2B gross cost-savings plan through 2028; Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin rose ~430bp to 14.4%, with FY2026 margin guidance above 11%, aided by leverage, cost cuts and tariff refunds. MCD trades at forward P/S ~5.77 vs industry 2.93; shares down ~21% year to date, per Zacks. Competitive dynamics and peer-margin initiatives could moderately influence Starbucks' sentiment and perceived relative positioning.
Starbucks will close 250 North American locations as part of a portfolio review, about 1% of its more than 18,000 U.S., Canada, and Mexico stores. This follows nearly 600 closures last year and a first decline in U.S. store count since the Great Recession. Under CEO Brian Niccol, the company is remodeling and expanding upgrades to about 1,500 locations by year-end, with growth in cities like Atlanta, Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Nashville, Orlando, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. Some closures involve seatless Pickup stores or underperforming locations that can’t meet the new experience or financial targets. Starbucks says severance will be provided for staff unable to transfer, and aims for every store to deliver the experience customers love and a pride-worthy environment for partners. Ongoing store rationalization and remodeling signal a mid-term efficiency drive that could moderately influence margins and growth.
Starbucks will close about 250 North America coffeehouses, roughly 1% of its NA footprint, citing underperformance or lack of path to acceptable financial results. The company will assist impacted partners with transfers and severance. The closures accompany progress on a coffeehouse uplift program, having completed more than 1,000 uplifts since late 2025 with a goal of at least 1,500 by end of fiscal 2026. Redesigns feature softer seating, artwork, greenery, and local touches intended to boost welcoming atmosphere and dwell time. Starbucks reiterates Back To Starbucks strategy is working and will continue portfolio optimization and a pipeline for new stores, including expansion to Mexico. Customers will be directed to nearby stores to preserve routines; shares fell slightly in premarket trading. Selective store closures aimed at improving profitability and efficiency suggest a moderate near-term impact with potential longer-term gains.
Starbucks will close about 250 North America locations this week, roughly 1% of its NA store base, after reviewing sites that don’t meet the desired customer/partner experience or show a path to acceptable financial performance. COO Mike Grams said closures are part of ongoing portfolio management, with impacted employees offered transfers or severance. Management is accelerating its uplift program, having completed more than 1,000 uplifts in North America toward a 1,500 annual goal, with more than 650 upgraded in Q3 alone. The company added 175 net new stores in Q3 globally, finishing with about 41,300 stores worldwide, with North America accounting for roughly 18,370 locations. Global net store growth is projected around 1.5% this year (600–650 net new), with potential faster growth in 2027. The uplift initiative includes a $150,000 per-store investment, a rapid remodel/refacing approach, and digital menus to support dayparting. Closures are a strategic portfolio optimization that could improve long-term profitability and accelerate growth in higher-potential stores.
23 Sep
Starbucks is accelerating its 'Back to Starbucks' coffeehouse revamp, moving from pilots in Southern California and New York to a broad rollout across the US, Canada, and Mexico. More than 1,000 cafes have been upgraded since late 2025, with a target of at least 1,500 by the end of fiscal 2026 and faster expansion in fiscal 2027. Upgrades emphasize a more comfortable, locally relevant cafe with softer seating, textures, artwork, greenery, and neighborhood-specific touches. The program includes Green Apron Service, the return of ceramic cups and glassware for in-cafe use, condiment bars, and expanded power outlets. New work is underway in major US markets such as Atlanta, Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Nashville, Orlando, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.; in Canada (Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary); and an expansion into Mexico (Mexico City, Monterrey, Acapulco, Ensenada) as part of a broader reinvestment. Expands a large-scale store redesign across US, Canada, and Mexico, signifying meaningful capital expenditure and potential long-term uplift in customer experience.
Starbucks is expanding digital menu boards to strengthen the afternoon daypart under its Back to Starbucks plan, aiming for 80-90% of stores to deploy the tech by September. The dayparting capability would let management tailor merchandising by time of day, with a focus on afternoon offerings. Starbucks says the rollout is already supporting afternoon demand and is part of a broader effort to improve in-store experience, throughput at drive-thru and mobile order pickup, and delivery. The company sees a diversified mix of beverages, food, and store routines, including Refreshers, Matcha, and food innovations, as key to driving afternoon occasions. In Q3 fiscal 2026, U.S. comps rose 7.9% with transactions up 4.2% and average ticket up 3.6%; food attach reached a Q3 record in U.S. company-operated stores, with strongest gains in the afternoon. Competition from McDonald's and Dutch Bros is cited as other operators pursue later-day occasions. Dayparting-enabled digital menus aimed at boosting afternoon traffic could materially alter SBUX's mix and growth trajectory.
Starbucks says its turnaround is entering a new phase focused on a $1 billion cafe makeover across up to 9,000 North American company stores. More than 1,000 renovations have been completed in nine months, with a goal of 1,500+ by the end of fiscal 2026. Concurrently, Niccol is pushing operating improvements to improve service and consistency, including the Green Apron program and speedier delivery—most U.S. orders now reach customers within four minutes. Global comparable sales rose 7.9% in fiscal Q3, with North American comps up 8.1% as traffic improves. Management targets operating margins up to 15% by fiscal 2028 and EPS of $3.35–$4.00, aided by higher traffic and store productivity. Bear case remains that heavy investments—labor in particular—have pressured profitability, with Q3 margin at 12.9% versus 15.8% two years ago. Scale and execution will determine the turnaround's durability. Thousands of store renovations and improved service could materially alter growth and margins if execution meets targets.
McDonald's yields 2.89% with a long dividend growth streak and a predominantly franchised model (about 95% franchised) that supports high margins. Starbucks yields 2.56% with a $0.62 quarterly payout, but FY2025 EPS of $2.13 trails the $2.48 annualized payout, requiring a turnaround to sustain coverage. McDonald's FY2025 EPS of $12.20 and free cash flow of $7.19B back a comfortable payout cushion; franchise margins are 46.9% operating and 31.9% net, dwarfing Starbucks' 4.99% net margin from company-operated stores amid restructuring. Starbucks' China deconsolidation to a 40%-owned JV reduces leverage toward ~2.9x but underscores execution risk. SBUX trades at 31x forward vs MCD's 18x, pricing in growth optionality for Starbucks but compressing value for McDonald's. Verdict: MCD is favored for retirement income; SBUX remains a recovery story. Higher yield and stronger payout coverage for MCD threaten SBUX's dividend sustainability.
Starbucks (SBUX) drew investor attention from Zacks as analysts revise earnings estimates, with a -10% month and a -10.6% industry move versus the S&P 500. For the current quarter, consensus is $0.71 per share, up 36.5% YoY; full-year EPS is $2.59 (+21.6%), with $3.13 for next year (+21%). The 12-month EPS forecast has inched up modestly over 30 days. Revenue expectations show $9.27B in the current quarter (−3.1% YoY), and about $38.03B this year and $39.22B next year (growth roughly +2–3%). Last quarter delivered $9.32B revenue (−1.4% YoY) and $0.85 EPS, with a -1.22% revenue surprise but a +28.79% EPS surprise. The stock has Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a Value grade signaling a premium valuation, suggesting near-term moves are driven by earnings revisions rather than major strategy shifts. Earnings revisions suggest modest near-term upside, but near-term downside risks and premium valuation limit upside.
22 Sep
Starbucks shares have risen 14.1% over the past year and trade near $94.90, prompting questions about whether the price reflects future cash flows. In the last 12 months the company generated about $2.7 billion in free cash flow, with a two-stage model implying growth rather than decline. Management is pursuing a back-to-store remodel cycle and a heavy labor investment program, funded by a roughly $2 billion cost-savings effort, to revitalize traffic but pressuring near-term operating margins. A DCF analysis places the intrinsic value broadly in line with the current price, helping explain why the market hasn’t priced in a clear premium to future cash flows. Community narratives on Simply Wall St present a bull case of about 15% undervaluation if cost savings lift margins and a bear case of around 9% overvaluation if wage inflation erodes profitability. The overall takeaway is that fair value hinges on how aggressively the remodel and efficiency initiatives translate into longer-term profitability. Margin pressure from wage inflation and store remodel costs could materially affect cash flows and margins, shaping future performance.
StockStory lists two stocks to sell—Starbucks (SBUX) and Generac (GNRC)—and one to watch, Halozyme (HALO). SBUX is flagged for lagging same-store sales over two years, an estimated 1.6% sales drop next year, and costs growing faster than revenue, squeezing operating margins by about 3 percentage points. At $95.03, it trades around 32.5x forward earnings, with a trailing free cash flow margin of 9.5%. GNRC shows slower growth and efficiency: about 5.1% annual revenue growth, a five-year margin decline of 6.7 points, and EPS shrinking 1.9% annually; it sits near $205.91 at 20.3x forward earnings. HALO, in contrast, posts a 48.5% free cash flow margin, 38% revenue growth, and 24.7% annual EPS gains; around $112.08, it trades at 11.5x forward earnings. View the free reports for deeper insights. Lagging comps, rising costs, and margin compression at SBUX with rich valuation suggest a moderate negative impact on near-term performance.