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Target Price Range
Recommendation Rating
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 115.66 | 140.00 | 165.49 | 126.01 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 180.00 | 219.03 | 233.26 | 209.61 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 23,471 | 22,902 | 21,895 | 20,591 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.27 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,260.08 | 5,866.15 | 5,814.81 | 5,496.39 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 97.47% | 97.93% | 97.89% | 98.00% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,841.35 | 1,647.78 | 1,557.60 | 1,361.31 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 29.41% | 28.09% | 26.79% | 24.77% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,377.16 | 1,239.50 | 1,186.07 | 1,023.70 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 276.07 | 324.45 | 344.58 | 364.69 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 27.86 | 26.81 | 27.00 | 26.11 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 6.13 | 5.67 | 5.51 | 4.86 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 7.53 | 7.17 | 7.71 | 6.51 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (3.35) | (3.24) | (3.49) | (1.74) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.18 | 3.93 | 4.22 | 4.77 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 16.26 | 19.46 | 19.71 | 20.48 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 224.68 | 218.84 | 215.33 | 210.54 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 23.03 | 35.11 | 32.07 | 32.26 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.07 | 7.42 | 6.53 | 6.01 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.69 | 10.22 | 8.95 | 7.66 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.05 | 7.36 | 6.52 | 5.99 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 33.67 | 50.17 | 41.77 | 32.81 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,691.58 | 1,569.14 | 1,659.28 | 1,370.13 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (753.05) | (708.67) | (751.19) | (366.51) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 938.53 | 860.46 | 908.09 | 1,003.62 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 403.95 | 598.68 | 180.15 | 210.93 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 99.96 | 79.98 | 59.99 | 40.00 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (135.70) | (353.82) | (48.69) | (80.10) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3,652.92 | 4,257.81 | 4,244.59 | 4,311.06 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 28.51% | 23.95% | 21.56% | 18.68% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 32.71% | 26.27% | 23.00% | 20.11% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 37.56% | 31.34% | 27.90% | 23.93% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROE
|
Analyst Commentary (Summary)
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Latest News
21 Sep
ODFL implemented a 4.9% general rate increase on select LTL tariffs to offset cost pressures and fund investments in real estate, equipment, technology, and competitive wages. The move, along with upward earnings estimates revisions and a favorable Zacks Rank, highlights pricing power shaping expectations of operating strength. The company also faces near-term risks from weak LTL tonnage and higher fixed costs, which could pressure earnings if demand remains muted. Management is set to discuss pricing, capacity, and cost trends at Morgan Stanley's Laguna Conference. Stock- and earnings-forecast narratives point to continued revenue growth and margin discipline, with projections of about $7.1 billion in revenue and $1.6 billion in earnings by 2029, and a quoted fair value of $229.50 implying ~31% upside. Some analysts remain cautious about margins if utilization stays weak. Rate increase strengthens pricing power and investor confidence, but near-term demand softness and fixed-cost pressure keep upside contingent.
Old Dominion Freight Line will raise rates by 4.9% on its existing tariffs, including 559 standard LTL, 670 cubic meter, and 550 fuel-related tariffs, effective Oct. 5. The increase, part of ongoing pricing discipline, varies by lane and includes a nominal rise in minimum charges for intrastate, interstate and cross-border lanes. The carrier cited investments in real estate, equipment, technology, and competitive wages to improve service strength, capacity, and efficiency. Earlier this year it lifted its 2026 capital expenditure forecast by about $115 million to around $380 million, with technology spending flat from April to July. ArcBest also implemented a 5.9% general rate increase this year, underscoring broader pricing trends in the sector. Pricing discipline with a 4.9% general rate increase plus ongoing capacity and technology investments is likely to meaningfully improve revenue quality and margins, impacting future performance.
Diesel tops $6 a gallon, causing J.B. Hunt Transport Services to plunge 13% after CFO Brad Delco warned third-quarter earnings will drop vs Q2 due to driver costs and fuel headwinds, with intermodal surcharge resets lagging diesel spikes. Analysts still target $298.48 on JBHT despite the decline, while rivals repriced fuel headwinds faster: Old Dominion Freight Line leaned into pricing, lifting LTL revenue per hundredweight 15.2% and trimming operating ratio by 450 basis points to 70.1% in Q2; XPO posted 18.4% adjusted EBITDA margin and an 11.9% rise in revenue per shipment including fuel surcharges. The market sees JBHT as pricing ahead of demand, with intermodal bid resets and diesel behavior the key variables. JBHT's stock remains up around 74-75% Y/Y; downgrade risk remains if diesel stays high and surcharges lag. ODFL's pricing strength and margin gains amid diesel headwinds position it more favorably relative to JBHT, signaling a moderate positive impact on its outlook.
Old Dominion Freight Line announced a 4.9% general rate increase across tariff codes, effective Oct. 5, moved up a month from last year. The hike aims to cover rising real estate, equipment, technology, and wage costs and to fund capex. ArcBest and Saia also pushed their GRIs earlier this year (5.9% and 7.1%), signaling a broad pricing trend in LTL. The move aligns with ongoing industry demand and a still-expanding manufacturing backdrop, reinforcing the pricing power thesis and supporting network and technology investments for ODFL and peers. Early GRI indicates pricing power and margin support amid inflation, modestly boosting near-term outlook without signaling a fundamental industry shift.
Old Dominion Freight Line has fallen 16.2% over the last four weeks, with the RSI at 23.08 signaling oversold conditions. The selloff appears to be exhausting, opening a window for a trend reversal back toward supply–demand balance. On the fundamentals side, Wall Street analysts have broadly raised earnings estimates for the current year, with the consensus EPS up about 0.1% over the past 30 days. Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) adds to near-term upside expectations by highlighting positive revisions and potential earnings surprises. RSI has limitations and should not drive decisions alone. If upbeat revisions persist and momentum shifts, a rebound in ODFL's share price could materialize, though no firm certainty is implied. Oversold conditions and modest earnings estimate upgrades point to a moderate near-term rebound potential.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. announced a general rate increase of 4.9% applicable to rates under tariffs 559, 670, and 550, effective October 5, 2026. The GRI may vary by customer and shipment lanes and includes a nominal increase in minimum charges for intrastate, interstate, and cross-border lanes. Greg P. Lawrence, Vice President of Pricing Services, said the increase supports ongoing investments in real estate, equipment, technology, and competitive wages to maintain OD’s capacity, efficiency, and service quality. OD says the GRI reinforces its premium value proposition—reliable, on-time, claims-free service at a fair price—while continuing to strengthen its network. The company notes the adjustment offsets continued cost pressures and underlines OD’s expansive U.S. service center network and its range of value-added services. Pricing adjustment of 4.9% with lane-based variation likely modestly improves margins while reflecting ongoing cost pressures.
11 Sep
High diesel prices may accelerate adoption of Tesla electric semis, raising fuel costs for diesel-dependent carriers like Old Dominion Freight Line while creating pressure to transition to electric trucks. Elevated diesel prices directly raise Old Dominion Freight Line operating expenses and may speed fleet electrification toward Tesla semis.
5 Sep
Old Dominion Freight Line starts Baton Rouge expansion that may drive its stock to trade at a premium. Baton Rouge expansion supports ODFL growth and could lift market valuation without altering long-term trajectory.
3 Sep
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. released an operational and financial update for the third quarter of 2026. Quarterly updates can moderately shift investor sentiment and near-term valuation for Old Dominion Freight Line.
25 Aug
Old Dominion Freight Line EPS estimates are rising, with analysis focused on investment strategies for the stock. Higher EPS estimates may lift near-term investor sentiment and trading activity around Old Dominion Freight Line shares.
7 Aug
Old Dominion Freight Line held its Q2 2026 earnings call. Q2 2026 earnings figures and management commentary directly impact ODFL valuation and outlook.
4 Aug
Old Dominion Freight Line posts Q2 earnings beat with higher spending aimed at supporting further growth. Q2 earnings beat and increased spending plans moderately affect financial performance and market positioning.
3 Aug
Old Dominion Freight Line capitalized on a competitor's bankruptcy to increase profits and expand market position. Rival bankruptcy enables Old Dominion to gain market share and improve earnings trajectory.
1 Aug
Old Dominion Freight Line achieved margin gains in Q2 through yield discipline despite volume headwinds. Q2 margin gains via yield focus indicate resilience that can support profitability trends going forward.
30 Jul
Old Dominion Freight Line reached a 70.1% operating ratio in Q2. 70.1% operating ratio in Q2 signals solid efficiency likely to affect near-term investor views on performance.
29 Jul
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc reported record revenue in Q2 2026 earnings call. Record revenue indicates strong financial results likely to lift future performance and investor sentiment.
Old Dominion Freight Line targets operating ratio below 70 and plans increased capital expenditures. Capex increases and sub-70 OR target signal operational focus likely to produce moderate effects on efficiency and results.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. released its Q2 2026 earnings call summary covering financial results and operational updates. Q2 earnings details can moderately influence near-term investor views on financial performance.
Old Dominion Freight Line reported Q2 revenue and earnings growth from higher freight volumes and rate increases, with management noting cost controls, network efficiency gains and cautious outlook on demand trends. Q2 earnings and volume data directly inform near-term revenue trajectory and margin expectations.
Old Dominion Freight Line beat Q2 earnings estimates through higher yields and disciplined cost management. Q2 earnings beat reflects positive yield and cost trends that support near-term financial results without major long-term shifts.
Old Dominion Freight Line reported Q2 results with key operating and financial metrics measured against Wall Street estimates. Quarterly earnings metrics versus estimates offer routine insight into near-term performance without signaling major strategic shifts.
Old Dominion Freight Line surpassed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates. Beating quarterly estimates typically lifts near-term stock sentiment and valuation for the company.
Old Dominion Freight Line exceeded Q2 CY2026 expectations. Earnings beat indicates solid quarterly results that can lift near-term stock sentiment without transforming long-term operations.
23 Jul
Old Dominion Freight Line raised estimates ahead of earnings, signaling potential pricing power gains in a challenging freight market. Raised estimates may moderately lift ODFL stock sentiment and near-term performance without altering long-term trajectory.
22 Jul
FDXF stock buy status hinges on growth targets weighed against high debt and macro risks for Old Dominion Freight Line. Debt levels and macro risks may moderately shape ODFL financial performance and investor sentiment without fundamentally shifting its trajectory.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is scheduled to report Q2 earnings, with focus on expected effects to stock performance. Quarterly earnings reports typically produce moderate short-term effects on stock price and sentiment without fundamentally changing long-term trajectory.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) earnings are projected to grow, raising the question of whether investors should buy the stock. Expected earnings growth may moderately influence ODFL stock performance and investor sentiment.
13 Jun
Rising LTL pricing amid Amazon threats may alter Old Dominion Freight Line's positive outlook and market performance. Rising LTL prices and Amazon competition could significantly alter Old Dominion Freight Line's competitive trajectory.
11 Jun
Forward Air is set to handle Amazon's LTL freight volumes, creating direct competition for Old Dominion Freight Line in the less-than-truckload segment. Forward Air securing Amazon LTL volumes adds competitive pressure that can erode Old Dominion's market share and near-term growth.
10 Jun
A fund exit from Old Dominion Freight Line spotlights questions around the company's valuation levels and underlying business risks. Fund divestment can temporarily pressure ODFL shares and investor focus on valuation but does not alter core operations or long-term trajectory.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has demonstrated exceptional resilience in the volatile LTL freight sector, scaling revenue from $2.99 billion in 2016 to a 2022 peak of $6.26 billion (13% CAGR) before moderating to $5.81 billion in 2024 amid post-pandemic normalization. Superior operational efficiency—revenue per employee up 56% to $265,577—paired with gross margins consistently above 96.5% and elite ROE of 28% in 2024 have driven stock highs from $30 to $233, outpacing cyclical peers through pricing power and low costs.
A fortress balance sheet, with near-zero net debt, surging FCF per share (567% gain to $4.22), and disciplined capital allocation via buybacks (shares down 14%) bolsters its appeal. Trading at a forward PE of 32x amid stabilizing fundamentals and a single minor insider sell, ODFL commands a premium justified by 20%+ ROIC durability and analyst forecasts of EPS growth to $6.01 by 2026, implying 7-10% total return potential on rebounding volumes.
Yet risks from freight tonnage declines (0.92 revenue correlation) and cycle normalization warrant caution, with Monte Carlo models showing 65% odds of strong EPS upside. ODFL’s pristine metrics position it for outperformance in a recovering cycle—read the full analysis for quantitative correlations and tactical entry points.