Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
ULCC Industrials Airlines
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $3.7 billion, down 1.35% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 37.7%, EPS fell 25.8%, free cash flow grew 183.1% and total debt fell 1.85%, each against the same quarter a year earlier.
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Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) Beneish M-score
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s Beneish M-score for fiscal 2025 is −2.03; values above −1.78 are the model's flag for possible earnings manipulation — a statistical screen, not a finding.
Beneish M-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Beneish M-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −2.03 | 0.47 |
| FY2024 | −2.50 | (0.30) |
| FY2023 | −2.20 | (0.29) |
| FY2022 | −1.91 | 0.47 |
| FY2021 | −2.38 | (0.59) |
| FY2020 | −1.79 | 1.19 |
| FY2016 | −2.99 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days’ sales in receivables index | 1.18 | — | 1.09 | |
| Gross margin index | 1.07 | — | 0.56 | |
| Asset quality index | 1.02 | — | 0.41 | |
| Sales growth index | 0.99 | — | 0.88 | |
| Depreciation index | 1.06 | — | 0.12 | |
| SG&A index | 1.05 | — | −0.18 | |
| Total accruals to total assets | 0.05 | — | 0.25 | |
| Leverage index | 0.99 | — | −0.32 | |
| Beneish M-score | Elevated | −2.03 | ||
How the Beneish M-score works
M = −4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI (Beneish, 1999): eight changes in the accounts from one fiscal year to the next, which the model weighs for the pattern seen in companies that later restated their earnings. Higher is worse.
| below −2.22 | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation |
|---|---|
| −2.22 to −1.78 | Elevated |
| above −1.78 | Flagged by the model |
−1.78 is the cut-off usually quoted from the paper, −2.22 a common conservative one. A statistical screen, not a finding of wrongdoing.
When asset quality, depreciation or SG&A cannot be worked out, that index is set to 1, as Beneish did, and the breakdown says so; with all three missing there is no score. Depreciation includes amortisation, and asset quality leaves out securities. Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs.
Beneish M-score against peers
| Company | Beneish M-score |
|---|---|
| ALGT Allegiant Travel Company compare | −3.3× |
| ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. compare | −2.8× |
| CPA Copa Holdings, S.A. compare | −2.7× |
| AERO Grupo Aeromexico SAB DE CV - Sponsored ADR compare | −2.7× |
| JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation compare | −2.5× |
| SKYW SkyWest, Inc. compare | −2.5× |
| VLRS Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion, S.A.B. de C.V. compare | −2.4× |
| ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | −2.0× |
| RJET Republic Airways Holdings Inc. compare | −1.7× |
What Beneish M-score is
The Beneish M-Score combines eight year-on-year changes in the accounts into a statistical screen for patterns seen in companies that overstated earnings.
−4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI