Toll Brothers Inc.
TOL Consumer Cyclical Residential Construction
Toll Brothers Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended October 2025) was $11.0 billion, up 1.11% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to July 2026, revenue fell 9.72%, EPS fell 20.7%, free cash flow fell 36.3% and total debt fell 6.02%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for ten consecutive years.
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Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) Beneish M-score
Toll Brothers Inc.'s Beneish M-score for fiscal 2025 is −2.35; values above −1.78 are the model's flag for possible earnings manipulation — a statistical screen, not a finding.
Beneish M-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Beneish M-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −2.35 | 0.00 |
| FY2024 | −2.36 | 0.16 |
| FY2023 | −2.52 | (0.23) |
| FY2022 | −2.28 | 0.46 |
| FY2021 | −2.75 | (0.43) |
| FY2020 | −2.32 | (0.12) |
| FY2019 | −2.20 | 0.24 |
| FY2018 | −2.44 | 0.34 |
| FY2017 | −2.79 | (1.13) |
| FY2016 | −1.66 | 0.38 |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days’ sales in receivables index | 0.93 | — | 0.85 | |
| Gross margin index | 1.11 | — | 0.59 | |
| Asset quality index | 1.23 | — | 0.50 | |
| Sales growth index | 1.01 | — | 0.90 | |
| Depreciation index | 0.66 | — | 0.08 | |
| SG&A index | 1.04 | — | −0.18 | |
| Total accruals to total assets | 0.02 | — | 0.08 | |
| Leverage index | 1.00 | — | −0.33 | |
| Beneish M-score | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation | −2.35 | ||
How the Beneish M-score works
M = −4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI (Beneish, 1999): eight changes in the accounts from one fiscal year to the next, which the model weighs for the pattern seen in companies that later restated their earnings. Higher is worse.
| below −2.22 | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation |
|---|---|
| −2.22 to −1.78 | Elevated |
| above −1.78 | Flagged by the model |
−1.78 is the cut-off usually quoted from the paper, −2.22 a common conservative one. A statistical screen, not a finding of wrongdoing.
When asset quality, depreciation or SG&A cannot be worked out, that index is set to 1, as Beneish did, and the breakdown says so; with all three missing there is no score. Depreciation includes amortisation, and asset quality leaves out securities. Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs.
Beneish M-score against peers
| Company | Beneish M-score |
|---|---|
| IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. compare | −2.7× |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. compare | −2.6× |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. compare | −2.6× |
| TOL Toll Brothers Inc. | −2.4× |
| NVR NVR, Inc. compare | −2.1× |
| LEN Lennar Corporation compare | −2.0× |
| LEN.B Lennar Corporation compare | −2.0× |
| PHM PulteGroup, Inc. compare | — |
| DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. compare | — |
What Beneish M-score is
The Beneish M-Score combines eight year-on-year changes in the accounts into a statistical screen for patterns seen in companies that overstated earnings.
−4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI