Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) carries three key risks that threaten its outlook, leading to a recommendation to purchase an alternative stock instead. Highlighted risks may moderately shift TNL investor sentiment and short-term performance.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | 6 | 3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 2.42 |
—
—
—
|
| 2025 | 2.24 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2024 | 2.00 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 1.80 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2022 | 1.60 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2021 | 1.25 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2020 | 1.60 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2019 | 1.80 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2018 | 1.53 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2017 | 1.05 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2016 | 0.90 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 458.00 | 329.00 | 426.00 | 471.00 |
| Receivables | 2,706.00 | 2,774.00 | 2,803.00 | 2,741.00 |
| Inventory | 1,135.00 | 1,227.00 | 1,128.00 | 1,179.00 |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 4,528.00 | 4,544.00 | 4,571.00 | 4,655.00 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 73.00 | 67.00 | 62.00 | 59.00 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 1,322.00 | 1,302.00 | 1,440.00 | 1,478.00 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 961.00 | 1,063.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 934.00 | 1,018.00 | 1,044.00 | 1,025.00 |
4,021.00
|
| ’24 | 916.00 | 985.00 | 993.00 | 970.00 |
3,864.00
|
| ’23 | 879.00 | 949.00 | 986.00 | 936.00 |
3,750.00
|
| ’22 | 809.00 | 922.00 | 937.00 | 899.00 |
3,567.00
|
| ’21 | 628.00 | 797.00 | 839.00 | 870.00 |
3,134.00
|
| ’20 | 558.00 | 343.00 | 614.00 | 645.00 |
2,160.00
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 38.00 | 220.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 121.00 | 232.00 | 163.00 | 124.00 |
640.00
|
| ’24 | 47.00 | 174.00 | 145.00 | 98.00 |
464.00
|
| ’23 | 7.00 | 103.00 | 88.00 | 152.00 |
350.00
|
| ’22 | 141.00 | 89.00 | 37.00 | 175.00 |
442.00
|
| ’21 | 78.00 | 212.00 | 145.00 | 133.00 |
568.00
|
| ’20 | 57.00 | 73.00 | 94.00 | 150.00 |
374.00
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 19.00 | 195.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 100.00 | 195.00 | 136.00 | 102.00 |
533.00
|
| ’24 | 30.00 | 154.00 | 125.00 | 75.00 |
384.00
|
| ’23 | (5.00) | 87.00 | 74.00 | 120.00 |
276.00
|
| ’22 | 131.00 | 75.00 | 25.00 | 167.00 |
398.00
|
| ’21 | 66.00 | 199.00 | 130.00 | 116.00 |
511.00
|
| ’20 | 36.00 | 55.00 | 77.00 | 137.00 |
305.00
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 1.22 | 1.72 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 1.07 | 1.62 | 1.67 | (0.95) |
3.44
|
| ’24 | 0.92 | 1.81 | 1.39 | 1.72 |
5.82
|
| ’23 | 0.81 | 1.25 | 1.49 | 1.77 |
5.28
|
| ’22 | 0.59 | 1.16 | 1.38 | 1.12 |
4.24
|
| ’21 | 0.33 | 0.82 | 1.15 | 1.22 |
3.52
|
| ’20 | (1.54) | (1.92) | 0.47 | 0.03 |
(2.97)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 33.57 | 32.10 | 37.99 | 37.77 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 63.19 | 44.99 | 56.91 | 73.43 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 18,200 | 19,000 | 19,000 | 19,300 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.21 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3,567.00 | 3,750.00 | 3,864.00 | 4,021.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 48.44% | 48.56% | 48.96% | 44.49% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 486.00 | 485.00 | 513.00 | 337.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13.62% | 12.93% | 13.28% | 8.38% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 357.00 | 396.00 | 411.00 | 230.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 119.00 | 112.00 | 115.00 | 124.00 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 42.77 | 50.34 | 55.12 | 61.30 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 4.28 | 5.31 | 5.87 | 3.51 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.30 | 4.70 | 6.62 | 9.76 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.53) | (0.99) | (1.14) | (1.63) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.77 | 3.70 | 5.48 | 8.13 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (10.84) | (12.31) | (12.55) | (14.97) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 83.40 | 74.50 | 70.10 | 65.60 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.26 | 7.62 | 8.55 | 20.33 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 1.15 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.39 | 2.33 | 2.41 | 2.57 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 21.44 | 31.72 | 24.29 | 19.37 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 442.00 | 350.00 | 464.00 | 640.00 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (44.00) | (74.00) | (80.00) | (107.00) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 398.00 | 276.00 | 384.00 | 533.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3,273.00 | 3,206.00 | 3,242.00 | 3,131.00 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,271.00 | 5,646.00 | 5,591.00 | 5,598.00 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5,583.00 | 5,188.00 | 5,262.00 | 5,172.00 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (904.00) | (917.00) | (880.00) | (982.00) | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.35% | 5.87% | 6.10% | 3.41% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.72% | 10.54% | 10.45% | 8.25% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (42.05%) | (43.49%) | (45.74%) | (24.70%) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROE
|
Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) has staged an impressive post-pandemic rebound, with revenue surging 79% from 2020 lows to $3.864 billion in 2024, alongside EPS rocketing from -$2.97 to $5.87—signaling robust demand revival in vacation ownership. Operational efficiencies shine brightly, as revenue per employee more than doubled to $203,000 amid a leaner workforce, boosting free cash flow per share 55% and supporting steady dividends. These gains, fueled by brand loyalty and digital shifts, position TNL for projected revenue growth to $4.293 billion by 2027 and EPS nearing $7.30, offering tantalizing 12% upside to analyst mean targets from current levels.
Yet, balance sheet hurdles like negative shareholders’ equity and $5.6 billion in debt, coupled with heavy insider selling, temper the enthusiasm in this cyclical sector—vulnerable to economic slowdowns. Trading at attractive PS and PE multiples, TNL blends reliable cash flows with recovery momentum, making it a yield play worth watching for debt reduction and booking strength in upcoming quarters. Dive into the full analysis for the charts, ratios, and pragmatic outlook that could unlock its next leg up.
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