Greg Abel, Warren Buffett's successor, is predicted to sell Berkshire Hathaway's large stake in SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA). Sale of Berkshire's major SDA position by Greg Abel would trigger sharp stock decline and erode market confidence.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2020 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 55.19 | 50.50 | 49.46 | 38.40 |
| Receivables | 56.04 | 75.61 | 59.77 | 46.10 |
| Inventory | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 175.20 | 196.27 | 183.30 | 192.87 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 26.64 | 56.81 | 41.40 | 46.92 |
| ST’ Debt | 83.03 | 83.60 | 80.47 | 82.12 |
| Other | — | 2.42 | 5.73 | 6.10 |
| 124.39 | 156.77 | 147.26 | 150.55 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 131.17 | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 102.60 | — | — | — |
489.29
|
| ’24 | 85.59 | — | — | — |
441.90
|
| ’23 | — | 159.38 | — | — |
363.75
|
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | (7.94) | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (11.07) | — | (9.26) | 0.01 |
5.72
|
| ’24 | 1.18 | — | (4.30) | (2.62) |
11.84
|
| ’23 | — | (27.65) | (0.55) | (19.98) |
(27.65)
|
| ’22 | (0.12) | (0.23) | — | — |
(16.14)
|
| ’22 | (0.12) | (0.20) | (0.60) | (0.05) |
(0.64)
|
| ’21 | — | — | (0.43) | (0.48) |
(0.92)
|
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | (7.95) | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (11.33) | — | (9.28) | 0.00 |
5.34
|
| ’24 | 0.66 | — | (4.47) | (2.87) |
11.30
|
| ’23 | — | (32.52) | (0.55) | (20.55) |
(32.52)
|
| ’22 | (0.12) | (4.58) | — | — |
(20.49)
|
| ’22 | (0.12) | (0.20) | (0.60) | (0.05) |
(0.64)
|
| ’21 | — | — | (0.43) | (0.48) |
(0.92)
|
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | 0.01 | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | — | (0.03) | — |
(0.04)
|
| ’23 | — | — | (0.02) | (0.04) |
(0.31)
|
| ’22 | (0.02) | (0.03) | — | — |
(0.20)
|
| ’22 | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.13) | 0.00 |
(0.20)
|
| ’21 | (0.02) | (0.01) | (0.11) | (0.18) |
(0.46)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | 9.95 | 3.80 | 5.71 | 1.54 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | 10.75 | 45.73 | 11.74 | 10.61 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 3 | 543 | 560 | 544 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.90 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 282.41 | 363.75 | 441.90 | 489.29 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Revenue
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.29) | (15.01) | (61.60) | (2.05) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00% | (4.13%) | (13.94%) | (0.42%) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | — |
EBT Margin
|
| — | ‡‡‡ | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.29) | (17.58) | (64.45) | (2.40) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Net Income
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | — | 5.08 | 4.11 | 4.50 | 6.10 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 4.26 | 4.60 | 4.79 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.20) | (0.31) | (0.69) | (0.04) | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | — |
Earnings/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.35) | (0.32) | 0.12 | 0.06 | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | (0.06) | (0.01) | 0.00 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | — |
Capex/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.35) | (0.38) | 0.12 | 0.05 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.88) | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.89 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.82 | 85.44 | 96.00 | 102.08 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Shares
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | — |
PE Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | — |
PS Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | 9.92 | 13.04 | 2.28 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | — |
PB Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | — |
EV/Sales
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | (94.27) | (14.52) | (22.90) | (12.00) | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.64) | (27.65) | 11.84 | 5.72 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | — |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | — | (4.35) | (4.87) | (0.54) | (0.38) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.64) | (32.52) | 11.30 | 5.34 | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.55) | 50.81 | 39.51 | 36.04 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.58 | 83.03 | 83.60 | 81.82 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.46 | 27.84 | 33.10 | 32.37 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (3.41) | 67.99 | 66.23 | 90.68 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.63%) | (12.96%) | (29.22%) | (1.58%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00% | (10.08%) | (36.72%) | 1.97% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13.80% | (51.38%) | (102.31%) | (5.02%) | — | — | — |
ROE
|
SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA), a digital platform bridging China’s drivers with auto repair shops amid a booming $100+ billion aftermarket, dazzled with SPAC-fueled hype in early 2024 but has since plunged over 80% from peaks—now trading near lows despite revenue surging 57% since 2022 to $442 million. Impressive top-line growth (29% in 2023, 21% in 2024) and rising revenue per share signal platform traction in urbanization and EV adoption, yet explosive employee headcount, ballooning debt to $84 million, and 100% gross margins raise eyebrows on sustainability and accounting.
Deeper cracks emerge in profitability: losses ballooned to $64.5 million in 2024 (ROE -102%, ROIC -37%), fueled by massive share dilution (from 1.8M to 96M shares) and zero insider buying amid volatility. Analysts forecast a miraculous turnaround—breakeven in 2025, EPS flipping positive—with mean price targets 134% above current levels—but correlations to negative cash flows, capex spikes, and SPAC-era pitfalls scream caution.
This contrarian dissection uncovers hidden traps in SDA’s “growth at any cost” narrative, echoing WeWork in the auto space. Cheap on EV/sales (0.4x forward), it’s a speculative bet on China’s aftermarket expansion versus US-China tensions and competition—will Q1 2026 cash flows prove the bulls, or justify fading the hype?
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