Redwire stock trades at a potential 30% discount to estimated fair value. Valuation discount assessment may shift near-term investor sentiment toward RDW.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | 6 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2025 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2024 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2022 | 0.10 |
—
|
| 2021 | 0.25 |
—
—
|
| 2019 | 0.31 |
—
—
|
| 2018 | 0.29 |
—
—
|
| 2017 | 0.18 |
—
—
|
| 2016 | 0.11 |
—
—
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 30.28 | 49.07 | 95.18 | 557.72 |
| Receivables | 33.05 | 21.91 | 37.25 | 27.50 |
| Inventory | 1.52 | 2.24 | 55.85 | 85.36 |
| Other | 36.96 | 43.04 | 44.02 | 72.05 |
| 109.31 | 125.93 | 252.81 | 761.16 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 18.57 | 32.13 | 32.30 | 54.16 |
| ST’ Debt | 1.38 | 1.27 | 5.16 | 4.50 |
| Other | 2.36 | 19.73 | 19.15 | 12.57 |
| 112.04 | 149.34 | 155.61 | 194.24 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 96.97 | 117.07 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 61.40 | 61.76 | 103.43 | 108.79 |
335.38
|
| ’24 | 87.79 | 78.11 | 68.64 | 69.56 |
304.10
|
| ’23 | 57.61 | 60.10 | 62.61 | 63.49 |
243.80
|
| ’22 | 32.87 | 36.73 | 37.25 | 53.71 |
160.55
|
| ’21 | 31.70 | 32.15 | 32.68 | 41.08 |
137.60
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (6.67) | (24.94) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (45.08) | (87.66) | (20.32) | (24.26) |
(177.33)
|
| ’24 | 2.76 | (9.51) | (17.67) | 7.06 |
(17.35)
|
| ’23 | (14.05) | 2.84 | (3.26) | 15.69 |
1.23
|
| ’22 | (11.45) | (4.14) | (11.24) | (4.83) |
(31.66)
|
| ’21 | (12.52) | (7.56) | (14.24) | (3.03) |
(37.36)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (12.70) | (35.34) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (49.14) | (93.55) | (27.81) | (30.11) |
(200.61)
|
| ’24 | 0.40 | (11.19) | (20.47) | 3.00 |
(28.26)
|
| ’23 | (14.85) | 1.10 | (5.92) | 12.58 |
(7.10)
|
| ’22 | (12.46) | (5.20) | (12.60) | (5.55) |
(35.81)
|
| ’21 | (13.10) | (8.31) | (15.15) | (3.66) |
(40.21)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (0.40) | (0.19) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (0.09) | (1.41) | (0.29) | (0.58) |
(2.28)
|
| ’24 | (0.17) | (0.42) | (0.37) | (1.38) |
(2.35)
|
| ’23 | (0.18) | (0.16) | (0.14) | (0.25) |
(0.73)
|
| ’22 | (0.28) | (1.22) | (0.16) | (0.43) |
(2.09)
|
| ’21 | 0.01 | (0.28) | — | (0.15) |
(1.36)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | 1.67 | 1.92 | 2.68 | 4.87 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.78 | 4.58 | 18.28 | 26.66 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 700 | 700 | 750 | 1,410 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.23 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.24 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 160.55 | 243.80 | 304.10 | 335.38 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.87% | 23.78% | 14.62% | 5.15% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (138.59) | (27.75) | (116.33) | (251.57) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (86.32%) | (11.38%) | (38.25%) | (75.01%) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| — | ‡‡‡ | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (130.62) | (27.26) | (114.31) | (226.55) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 11.78 | 11.33 | 12.55 | 34.92 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.54 | 3.77 | 4.60 | 2.81 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.09) | (0.73) | (2.35) | (2.28) | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.50) | 0.02 | (0.26) | (1.48) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.07) | (0.13) | (0.16) | (0.19) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.57) | (0.11) | (0.43) | (1.68) | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.10) | (0.67) | (2.85) | 8.87 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 63.32 | 64.65 | 66.15 | 119.54 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.84 | 0.79 | 3.58 | 2.71 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.15 | 1.03 | 3.84 | 2.68 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (5.15) | (35.30) | (41.27) | (4.49) | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (31.66) | 1.23 | (17.35) | (177.33) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (4.15) | (8.33) | (10.92) | (23.28) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Capex
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (35.81) | (7.10) | (28.26) | (200.61) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.43 | (2.72) | (23.42) | 97.20 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 77.90 | 89.36 | 126.71 | 86.47 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 49.59 | 59.08 | 77.64 | (8.71) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (6.47) | (43.28) | (188.71) | 1,060.02 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (50.97%) | (17.88%) | (55.11%) | (31.27%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (212.31%) | (61.51%) | 0.00% | (13.65%) | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (262.79%) | 190.06% | 133.94% | (62.51%) | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Redwire Corporation (RDW), a pivotal player in space infrastructure and satellite systems, has delivered explosive revenue growth since its 2021 SPAC debut, surging from $57 million in 2020 to $304 million in 2024 at over 50% CAGR, fueled by NASA’s Artemis program and smallsat demand. Analyst forecasts project continued acceleration to $714 million by 2027, underscoring operational scaling with revenue per employee doubling to $405,000. Yet, this top-line momentum conceals deepening profitability woes, with EBT losses ballooning to $116 million in 2024 (-38% margins) and gross margins eroding to 15%, alongside persistent negative free cash flow and a 1,500% working capital deterioration.
The balance sheet raises alarms for risk-averse investors: shareholder equity flipped to -$189 million, debt rose 63% to $127 million, and massive insider selling—over 50 million shares ($539 million) by a key director—dwarfs modest management buys, signaling potential overhang amid post-SPAC dilution. Stock volatility mirrors this feast-or-famine dynamic, rebounding from 2022 lows of $1.67 to 2024 highs near $18, with current levels implying 62% analyst upside but vulnerable to execution delays, geopolitical tensions, and competition.
While projections hint at narrowing losses and positive cash flow by 2026, RDW demands flawless margin expansion and debt management in a capital-intensive sector—offering high-beta rewards for the bold, but prudent positioning is essential amid these fragility risks.
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