| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | 2 | 13 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2022 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2021 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2020 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2019 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2017 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 732.80 | 821.57 | 689.19 | 735.94 |
| Receivables | — | — | — | — |
| Inventory | 2,797.15 | 3,091.86 | 3,383.94 | 3,505.30 |
| Other | 176.33 | 283.54 | 309.10 | 258.97 |
| 3,706.28 | 4,210.42 | 4,386.74 | 4,500.20 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 204.68 | 198.58 | 181.19 | 244.49 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | — |
| Other | 337.43 | 350.35 | 359.38 | 343.57 |
| 542.11 | 548.93 | 540.57 | 588.06 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 920.71 | 1,063.26 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 976.09 | 1,162.59 | 1,131.79 | 1,147.31 |
4,417.78
|
| ’24 | 1,046.70 | 1,109.78 | 1,142.91 | 1,205.28 |
4,504.67
|
| ’23 | 1,000.53 | 1,014.01 | 1,046.37 | 972.59 |
4,033.50
|
| ’22 | 860.81 | 1,040.65 | 1,012.93 | 1,217.00 |
4,131.39
|
| ’21 | 828.78 | 961.04 | 904.32 | 1,051.75 |
3,745.89
|
| ’20 | 577.60 | 714.19 | 847.92 | 906.43 |
3,046.15
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 135.73 | 36.81 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 64.89 | 37.76 | 43.41 | (8.71) |
137.35
|
| ’24 | 115.77 | 27.51 | (67.94) | 104.40 |
179.74
|
| ’23 | 251.50 | 166.19 | 79.54 | 54.90 |
552.13
|
| ’22 | 69.33 | 9.21 | (92.69) | 198.22 |
184.07
|
| ’21 | 75.17 | 98.63 | (208.14) | 17.52 |
(16.82)
|
| ’20 | (24.23) | 107.05 | 114.40 | (28.89) |
168.33
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 144.65 | 31.43 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 70.24 | 35.52 | 42.01 | (12.96) |
134.80
|
| ’24 | 122.35 | 22.40 | (68.52) | 102.71 |
178.93
|
| ’23 | 249.42 | 175.94 | 77.47 | 54.24 |
557.06
|
| ’22 | 68.12 | 7.83 | (93.87) | 192.87 |
174.94
|
| ’21 | 79.41 | 97.68 | (209.66) | 14.44 |
(18.14)
|
| ’20 | (24.68) | 105.53 | 107.91 | (28.23) |
160.53
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 2.55 | 3.02 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 3.98 | 4.42 | 3.92 | 2.39 |
14.74
|
| ’24 | 4.78 | 5.12 | 5.10 | 4.71 |
19.71
|
| ’23 | 3.64 | 4.12 | 4.82 | 3.66 |
16.21
|
| ’22 | 3.16 | 4.79 | 4.67 | 4.65 |
17.24
|
| ’21 | 2.85 | 3.58 | 3.03 | 3.83 |
13.28
|
| ’20 | 1.09 | 1.89 | 2.51 | 2.71 |
8.23
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 34.33 | 46.12 | 109.92 | 100.22 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 62.82 | 140.73 | 176.18 | 158.92 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,663 | 1,607 | 1,760 | 1,801 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.48 | 2.51 | 2.56 | 2.45 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4,131.39 | 4,033.50 | 4,504.67 | 4,417.78 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 25.27% | 25.26% | 26.61% | 24.10% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 635.21 | 607.28 | 733.61 | 526.59 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 15.38% | 15.06% | 16.29% | 11.92% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 490.66 | 465.37 | 563.73 | 402.94 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.17 | 17.37 | 18.70 | 20.04 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 148.21 | 145.25 | 162.17 | 165.27 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.60 | 16.76 | 20.29 | 15.07 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.60 | 19.88 | 6.47 | 5.14 | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.33) | 0.18 | (0.03) | (0.10) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.28 | 20.06 | 6.44 | 5.04 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 74.28 | 90.64 | 105.83 | 118.45 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 27.88 | 27.77 | 27.78 | 26.73 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.68 | 8.00 | 6.55 | 8.51 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | — |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.32 | 0.92 | 0.82 | 0.77 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.64 | 1.48 | 1.26 | 1.08 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.88 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.50 | 7.27 | 22.59 | 28.97 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 184.07 | 552.13 | 179.74 | 137.35 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (9.13) | 4.93 | (0.80) | (2.55) | — | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 174.94 | 557.06 | 178.93 | 134.80 | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2,784.75 | 3,164.18 | 3,661.50 | 3,846.17 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,184.21 | 859.59 | 981.18 | 973.16 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 872.67 | 126.78 | 159.61 | 283.97 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2,070.73 | 2,516.94 | 2,939.68 | 3,166.19 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 14.11% | 12.03% | 13.15% | 8.64% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13.54% | 13.88% | 14.24% | 9.18% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 26.56% | 20.29% | 20.66% | 13.20% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
M/I Homes (MHO) surfed the pandemic housing wave to dazzling heights—revenues exploding 166% from $1.7 billion in 2016 to $4.5 billion in 2024, EPS up 866%, and ROE crushing S&P averages at 20%+—fueled by pricing power, efficient scaling, and Sun Belt expansions. Gross margins swelled to 26.6%, share buybacks shrank floats, and net debt plunged 87%. Yet, cracks are widening: 2023 revenue dipped 2.4%, cash flows swung wildly with 2024 FCF cratering 68%, and working capital ballooned to $3.65 billion, a powder keg if demand stalls amid sticky 6-7% mortgage rates.
Wall Street sees cheap valuations (P/E ~6.6, EV/FCF 22.6) and modest upside, but insiders beg to differ—dumping $11.3 million in shares at cycle highs, zero buys amid “bargain” talk. Analyst forecasts flag flat 2025-26 revenues, EPS plunging 31% to $13.96, and margin squeezes to 11-12%, ignoring recession risks that could slash orders 20-30% like 2008’s builder bloodbath.
Consensus chases a mirage of recovery, but contrarian red flags scream value trap: inventory gluts, affordability crunches, and economic whiplash threaten 20-30% downside. Modest positions, puts, or sub-$120 waits only—the boom built empires, but busts bury them. Dive into the full dissection for the unvarnished risks.
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