El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
LOCO Consumer Cyclical Restaurants
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $490.0 million, up 3.60% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 2.97%, EPS grew 79.2%, free cash flow grew 155.5% and total debt fell 55.5%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Operating cash flow growth for three consecutive years.
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El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) Altman Z-score
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is 1.61, in the distress zone (below 1.81).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 1.61 | 0.03 |
| FY2024 | 1.58 | 0.10 |
| FY2023 | 1.48 | (0.07) |
| FY2022 | 1.55 | (0.30) |
| FY2021 | 1.85 | 0.01 |
| FY2020 | 1.84 | 0.34 |
| FY2019 | 1.50 | (0.79) |
| FY2018 | 2.29 | 0.35 |
| FY2017 | 1.94 | (0.09) |
| FY2016 | 2.03 | (0.04) |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | (0.09) | — | −0.11 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | 0.07 | — | 0.10 | |
| EBIT / total assets | 0.07 | — | 0.23 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 0.97 | — | 0.58 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.81 | — | 0.81 | |
| Altman Z-score | Distress zone | 1.61 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Distress zone | 1.09 | ||
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| NATH Nathan's Famous, Inc. compare | 9.4× |
| PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. compare | 3.7× |
| KRUS Kura Sushi USA, Inc. compare | 3.6× |
| HDL Super Hi International Holding Ltd. Unsponsored ADR compare | 2.9× |
| LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 1.6× |
| BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. compare | 1.6× |
| DIN DINE BRANDS GLOBAL, INC. compare | 1.0× |
| PTLO Portillo's Inc. compare | 0.7× |
| BH.A Biglari Holdings Inc. compare | — |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets