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Johnson Controls International plc

JCI Industrials Building Products & Equipment

Johnson Controls International plc’s revenue for fiscal 2026 (year ended September 2026) was $25.7 billion, up 8.77% from fiscal 2025.

Revenue
+10.4%
EPS
−40.1%
Free cash flow
+23.2%
Total debt
−6.10%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

132.33 8.20 −5.84%
Market cap
$79.6B
P/E
28.2×
Fwd P/E
30.2×
Dividend yield
1.21%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
−2.42
Dividend safety
85/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
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Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $132.33 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 9.7% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 66.1% a year over the last ten years, 17.1% over the last five. The price asks for less than its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 8.4%.

In September 2018 the price assumed 6.6% a year; Johnson Controls International plc went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 19.0% a year to FY2026.

Price implies
9.7%
Last 5 years, reported
17.1%
Last 10 years, reported
66.1%
Industry median implies
8.4%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
9.7% a year for ten years
$132.33
today’s price
Its base case
25.0% a year for five years, then 15.0%
$309.56
133.9% above today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Johnson Controls International plc’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 9.7% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Johnson Controls International plc’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.29 × equity premium 4.5% = 10.1% cost of equity; weighted, 10.1%.

Use 10.1%
Equity value $189.14b ▲ above market cap $80.85b
Base case value per share $309.56 equity value ÷ 611.00m shares
Current price $132.33 market price per share
Above today’s price 133.9% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$63.57b 10 years of cash to equity+$134.23b terminal value−$8.66b net debt=$189.14b equity value÷611.00m shares=$309.56 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Building Products & Equipment).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 28.18× 26.28× 25.34× 11% above 23.33× 21% above
P/FCF 23.46× 31.31× 30.03× 22% below 18.42× 27% above
P/B 2,283.64× 971.90× 486.90× 369% above 2.85× 79949% above
EV/EBITDA 23.55× 23.75× 21.30× 11% above 13.29× 77% above
EV/Sales 3.45× 3.07× 2.49× 39% above 2.28× 51% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
1.82×2.45×3.08×3.71×10Y avg 2.49×2018201920202021202220232024202520262026

JCI trades at 3.45× EV/Sales, against a 10-year average of 2.49× (range 1.64×–3.84×). That is dearer than 89% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $91.59 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.