Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
GO Consumer Defensive Grocery Stores
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $4.7 billion, up 7.26% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 1.10%, EPS grew 20.0%, free cash flow fell 95.8% and total debt rose 6.68%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for three consecutive years; insiders bought in the last twelve months.
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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Beneish M-score
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s Beneish M-score for fiscal 2025 is −3.34; values above −1.78 are the model's flag for possible earnings manipulation — a statistical screen, not a finding.
Beneish M-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Beneish M-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −3.34 | (0.72) |
| FY2024 | −2.62 | 0.25 |
| FY2023 | −2.87 | (0.53) |
| FY2022 | −2.34 | 0.77 |
| FY2021 | −3.11 | (1.35) |
| FY2020 | −1.76 | 0.39 |
| FY2019 | −2.15 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days’ sales in receivables index | 0.82 | — | 0.76 | |
| Gross margin index | 1.00 | — | 0.53 | |
| Asset quality index | 0.99 | — | 0.40 | |
| Sales growth index | 1.07 | — | 0.96 | |
| Depreciation index | 0.46 | — | 0.05 | |
| SG&A index | 1.01 | — | −0.17 | |
| Total accruals to total assets | (0.14) | — | −0.68 | |
| Leverage index | 1.06 | — | −0.35 | |
| Beneish M-score | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation | −3.34 | ||
How the Beneish M-score works
M = −4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI (Beneish, 1999): eight changes in the accounts from one fiscal year to the next, which the model weighs for the pattern seen in companies that later restated their earnings. Higher is worse.
| below −2.22 | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation |
|---|---|
| −2.22 to −1.78 | Elevated |
| above −1.78 | Flagged by the model |
−1.78 is the cut-off usually quoted from the paper, −2.22 a common conservative one. A statistical screen, not a finding of wrongdoing.
When asset quality, depreciation or SG&A cannot be worked out, that index is set to 1, as Beneish did, and the breakdown says so; with all three missing there is no score. Depreciation includes amortisation, and asset quality leaves out securities. Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs.
Beneish M-score against peers
| Company | Beneish M-score |
|---|---|
| DNUT Krispy Kreme, Inc. compare | −3.8× |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | −3.3× |
| VLGEA Village Super Market, Inc. compare | −2.9× |
| ASAIY Sendas Distribuidora S.A. Sponsored ADR compare | −2.8× |
| NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. compare | −2.6× |
| WMK Weis Markets, Inc. compare | −2.5× |
| IMKTA Ingles Markets, Incorporated compare | −2.3× |
| DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Limited Sponsored ADR compare | −2.0× |
| SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. compare | −1.9× |
What Beneish M-score is
The Beneish M-Score combines eight year-on-year changes in the accounts into a statistical screen for patterns seen in companies that overstated earnings.
−4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI