Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
GO Consumer Defensive Grocery Stores
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $4.7 billion, up 7.26% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 1.10%, EPS grew 20.0%, free cash flow fell 95.8% and total debt rose 6.68%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for three consecutive years; insiders bought in the last twelve months.
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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Altman Z-score
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is 1.68, in the distress zone (below 1.81).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 1.68 | (0.47) |
| FY2024 | 2.15 | (0.45) |
| FY2023 | 2.60 | (0.03) |
| FY2022 | 2.64 | 0.20 |
| FY2021 | 2.44 | (0.50) |
| FY2020 | 2.94 | 0.54 |
| FY2019 | 2.40 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | 0.04 | — | 0.05 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | 0.05 | — | 0.07 | |
| EBIT / total assets | (0.07) | — | −0.24 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 0.47 | — | 0.28 | |
| Sales / total assets | 1.52 | — | 1.52 | |
| Altman Z-score | Distress zone | 1.68 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Distress zone | 0.46 | ||
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| WMK Weis Markets, Inc. compare | 5.4× |
| SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. compare | 4.5× |
| IMKTA Ingles Markets, Incorporated compare | 4.3× |
| VLGEA Village Super Market, Inc. compare | 3.9× |
| NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. compare | 3.8× |
| ASAIY Sendas Distribuidora S.A. Sponsored ADR compare | 2.2× |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | 1.7× |
| DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Limited Sponsored ADR compare | 1.3× |
| DNUT Krispy Kreme, Inc. compare | −0.4× |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets