Algoma Steel Group Inc.
ASTL Basic Materials Steel
Algoma Steel Group Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.5 billion, down 28.0% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue fell 54.7%, EPS grew 13.5%, free cash flow grew 20.9% and total debt rose 42.0%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for three consecutive years.
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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) Altman Z-score
Algoma Steel Group Inc.'s Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is −1.04, in the distress zone (below 1.81).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −1.04 | (3.45) |
| FY2024 | 2.41 | (0.86) |
| FY2023 | 3.27 | 0.34 |
| FY2023 | 2.93 | (3.10) |
| FY2022 | 6.03 | 1.47 |
| FY2022 | 4.56 | 0.03 |
| FY2021 | 4.53 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | 0.28 | — | 0.33 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | (0.42) | — | −0.59 | |
| EBIT / total assets | (0.61) | — | −2.00 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 0.38 | — | 0.23 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.99 | — | 0.99 | |
| Altman Z-score | Distress zone | −1.04 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Distress zone | −3.32 | ||
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| MSB Mesabi Trust compare | 70.4× |
| NWPX NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. compare | 4.2× |
| FRD Friedman Industries Inc. compare | 3.7× |
| WS Worthington Steel, Inc. compare | 3.0× |
| MTUS Metallus Inc. compare | 2.1× |
| SID National Steel Company compare | 0.7× |
| ZKIN ZK International Group Co., Ltd. compare | 0.2× |
| ASTL Algoma Steel Group Inc. | −1.0× |
| MTL Mechel PAO compare | — |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets