Rayonier Inc.

RYN Real Estate Reit Specialty

Rayonier Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $484.5 million, down 51.0% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+272.2%
EPS
−97.7%
Free cash flow
−88.7%
Total debt
+77.6%

Quarter to June 2026, against a year earlier

21.63 0.28 −1.28%
Market cap
$6.6B
P/E
47.5×
Fwd P/E
72.7×
Dividend yield
4.81%
F-score
5/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

Rayonier Inc. (RYN) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $21.63 the price implies FFO a share growing 3.1% a year for ten years.

FFO a share grew −0.5% a year over the last ten years, −0.9% over the last five. The price asks for 3.5 points a year more than its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 4.1%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 6.4% a year; Rayonier Inc. went on to grow FFO a share −3.7% a year to FY2025.

FFO a share is worked out from Rayonier Inc.’s 10-Ks and 10-Qs: net income, plus the depreciation of its property and impairments, less gains on property sales.

Price implies
3.1%
Last 5 years, reported
−0.9%
Last 10 years, reported
−0.5%
Industry median implies
4.1%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ FFO a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
3.1% a year for ten years
$21.63
today’s price
Its base case
−0.5% a year for five years, then −0.3%
$16.70
22.8% below today’s price

Both are growth in FFO a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Rayonier Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · FFO a share
the four quarters to June 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in FFO a share. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies FFO a share growing 3.1% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Rayonier Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.91 × equity premium 4.5% = 8.4% cost of equity; weighted, 8.4%.

Use 8.4%
Base case value per share $16.70 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $21.63 market price per share
Below today’s price 22.8% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$8.26 10 years of FFO+$8.44 terminal value=$16.70 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Reit Specialty).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 47.52× 27.94× 41.74× 14% above 27.75× 71% above
P/FCF — 20.53× 379.35× — 19.50× —
P/B 1.26× 2.04× 2.28× 45% below 1.96× 36% below
EV/EBITDA 44.58× 24.41× 21.01× 112% above 17.39× 156% above
EV/Sales 8.49× 7.05× 6.62× 28% above 8.49× 0% above
P/FFO 16.46× 15.39× 17.57× 6% below — —
1.43×1.96×2.49×3.02×10Y avg 2.28×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

RYN trades at 1.26× P/B, against a 10-year average of 2.28× (range 1.26×–3.13×). That is cheaper than 100% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $39.07 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.