Republic Services raised guidance and its dividend, indicating the stock could be 11% undervalued. Higher guidance and dividend raise improve near-term earnings visibility and shareholder returns.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 8 | 4 |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 2.55 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2025 | 2.37 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2024 | 1.65 |
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 2.06 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2022 | 1.91 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2021 | 1.77 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2020 | 2.07 |
—
—
—
—
—
|
| 2019 | 1.56 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2018 | 1.44 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2017 | 1.33 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2016 | 1.24 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 140.00 | 74.00 | 76.00 | 107.00 |
| Receivables | 1,768.00 | 1,821.00 | 1,897.00 | 2,029.00 |
| Inventory | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 2,381.00 | 2,406.00 | 2,523.00 | 2,563.00 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 1,412.00 | 1,345.00 | 1,374.00 | 1,440.00 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | 1,242.00 |
| 4,228.00 | 4,128.00 | 3,928.00 | 3,980.00 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 4,113.00 | 4,430.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 4,009.00 | 4,235.00 | 4,212.00 | 4,135.00 |
16,591.00
|
| ’24 | 3,862.00 | 4,048.00 | 4,076.00 | 4,046.00 |
16,032.00
|
| ’23 | 3,581.10 | 3,725.90 | 3,825.90 | 3,832.10 |
14,965.00
|
| ’22 | 2,970.10 | 3,413.60 | 3,597.80 | 3,529.50 |
13,511.00
|
| ’21 | 2,595.90 | 2,812.30 | 2,933.90 | 2,952.90 |
11,295.00
|
| ’20 | 2,553.90 | 2,454.40 | 2,572.10 | 2,573.20 |
10,153.60
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 1,227.00 | 1,153.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 1,025.00 | 1,109.00 | 1,181.00 | 981.00 |
4,296.00
|
| ’24 | 811.00 | 1,100.00 | 1,003.00 | 1,022.00 |
3,936.00
|
| ’23 | 687.70 | 1,078.50 | 953.10 | 898.70 |
3,618.00
|
| ’22 | 705.60 | 857.60 | 816.80 | 810.00 |
3,190.00
|
| ’21 | 661.00 | 821.80 | 655.00 | 648.90 |
2,786.70
|
| ’20 | 595.80 | 737.70 | 575.50 | 562.60 |
2,471.60
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 754.00 | 765.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 569.00 | 707.00 | 739.00 | 407.00 |
2,422.00
|
| ’24 | 298.00 | 700.00 | 568.00 | 562.00 |
2,128.00
|
| ’23 | 315.10 | 753.90 | 592.10 | 354.90 |
2,016.00
|
| ’22 | 388.30 | 547.60 | 543.30 | 289.80 |
1,769.00
|
| ’21 | 332.10 | 550.30 | 362.00 | 245.50 |
1,489.90
|
| ’20 | 228.70 | 462.40 | 353.70 | 262.30 |
1,307.10
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 1.70 | 1.84 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 1.58 | 1.75 | 1.76 | 1.76 |
6.85
|
| ’24 | 1.44 | 1.62 | 1.80 | 1.63 |
6.49
|
| ’23 | 1.21 | 1.35 | 1.52 | 1.39 |
5.47
|
| ’22 | 1.11 | 1.17 | 1.32 | 1.09 |
4.69
|
| ’21 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 0.98 |
4.04
|
| ’20 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 0.74 |
3.02
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 113.57 | 120.58 | 162.27 | 199.43 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 149.17 | 167.17 | 220.58 | 258.75 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 40,000 | 41,000 | 42,000 | 42,000 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.40 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13,511.00 | 14,965.00 | 16,032.00 | 16,591.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 39.27% | 40.24% | 41.68% | 41.96% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,832.00 | 2,191.00 | 2,432.00 | 2,594.00 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13.56% | 14.64% | 15.17% | 15.63% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,488.00 | 1,731.00 | 2,044.00 | 2,139.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,441.00 | 1,599.00 | 1,784.00 | 1,928.00 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 42.69 | 47.33 | 50.99 | 53.19 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 4.70 | 5.47 | 6.50 | 6.86 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.08 | 11.44 | 12.52 | 13.77 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (4.49) | (5.07) | (5.75) | (6.01) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.59 | 6.38 | 6.77 | 7.77 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 30.61 | 33.34 | 36.28 | 38.37 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 316.50 | 316.20 | 314.40 | 311.90 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 27.32 | 30.10 | 31.00 | 30.89 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.01 | 3.49 | 3.95 | 3.98 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.20 | 4.95 | 5.54 | 5.52 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.88 | 4.34 | 4.74 | 4.82 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 29.64 | 32.19 | 35.72 | 33.03 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3,190.00 | 3,618.00 | 3,936.00 | 4,296.00 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1,421.00) | (1,602.00) | (1,808.00) | (1,874.00) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,769.00 | 2,016.00 | 2,128.00 | 2,422.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1,033.60) | (1,847.00) | (1,722.00) | (1,405.00) | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 11,843.50 | 11,887.00 | 11,851.00 | 12,985.00 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 11,700.10 | 11,747.00 | 11,777.00 | 12,909.00 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9,686.80 | 10,543.00 | 11,407.00 | 11,969.00 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.51% | 5.73% | 6.40% | 6.41% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 6.99% | 7.79% | 8.62% | 8.30% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 15.94% | 17.11% | 18.62% | 18.30% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stands out as a resilient powerhouse in waste management, delivering steady 7% revenue CAGR from $9.4 billion in 2016 to $16 billion in 2024, fueled by organic growth, tuck-in acquisitions, and essential services that weathered the pandemic and inflation. Gross margins expanded to 41.7%, free cash flow per share surged 150% to $6.77, and EPS rocketed 263% to $6.50, supporting two decades of dividend hikes, share buybacks, and a 287% stock price gain—hallmarks of operational leverage and pricing power in a high-barrier industry.
Yet, caution flags abound: debt ballooned 55% to $11.85 billion, pushing EV/FCF to 35.7x and heightening rate sensitivity, while capex demands ($1.81 billion in 2024, rising further) strain near-term FCF amid ESG-driven fleet upgrades and landfill constraints. Stretched valuations (31x PE, 5.5x PB) leave little room for error if recycling prices falter or regulations tighten.
Analysts project modest 4.3% revenue CAGR through 2027 with EPS nearing $8.10, but fair value implies just 8-10% upside—warranting a hold amid downside risks like recessions or multiple compression to 25x PE. RSG rewards patient capital, but vigilance on leverage and execution is key.
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