Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) receives a rating upgrade to Buy. Buy rating upgrade for RCEL can lift near-term investor sentiment and share price but does not alter core operations or long-term trajectory.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 5 | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 89.06 | 35.89 | 18.19 | 11.14 |
| Receivables | 7.69 | 11.79 | 9.09 | 9.87 |
| Inventory | 5.60 | 7.27 | 6.93 | 5.29 |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 104.01 | 57.00 | 35.49 | 28.39 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 3.79 | 6.29 | 8.96 | 6.42 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | 42.98 | 46.66 |
| Other | 1.43 | 3.41 | 2.92 | 6.81 |
| 13.20 | 20.16 | 62.68 | 68.71 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 19.25 | 21.70 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 18.51 | 18.42 | 17.06 | 17.62 |
71.61
|
| ’24 | 11.10 | 15.20 | 19.55 | 18.41 |
64.25
|
| ’23 | 10.55 | 11.75 | 13.65 | 14.20 |
50.14
|
| ’22 | 7.54 | 8.34 | 9.09 | 9.46 |
34.42
|
| ’21 | — | — | 7.02 | (12.13) |
29.23
|
| ’21 | 8.77 | 10.30 | — | — |
29.23
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (10.07) | (3.50) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (10.31) | (10.23) | (5.22) | (5.44) |
(31.19)
|
| ’24 | (20.86) | (12.78) | (7.21) | (8.08) |
(48.94)
|
| ’23 | (9.07) | (9.10) | (8.97) | (10.86) |
(38.01)
|
| ’22 | (9.37) | (3.51) | (2.78) | (3.44) |
(19.09)
|
| ’21 | — | — | (0.59) | 7.63 |
(25.90)
|
| ’21 | (8.54) | (3.99) | — | — |
(25.90)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (10.09) | (3.60) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (10.53) | (10.77) | (6.15) | (5.40) |
(32.83)
|
| ’24 | (22.01) | (15.52) | (10.97) | (9.69) |
(58.11)
|
| ’23 | (9.37) | (9.40) | (9.48) | (11.16) |
(39.39)
|
| ’22 | (9.45) | (3.74) | (2.93) | (3.58) |
(19.61)
|
| ’21 | — | — | (0.70) | 8.13 |
(26.03)
|
| ’21 | (8.90) | (4.16) | — | — |
(27.07)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (0.35) | (0.25) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (0.53) | (0.38) | (0.46) | (0.38) |
(1.74)
|
| ’24 | (0.73) | (0.60) | (0.62) | (0.44) |
(2.39)
|
| ’23 | (0.37) | (0.41) | (0.34) | (0.28) |
(1.40)
|
| ’22 | (0.38) | (0.25) | (0.22) | (0.21) |
(1.07)
|
| ’21 | — | — | (0.24) | (0.34) |
(1.17)
|
| ’21 | (0.26) | (0.19) | — | — |
(1.17)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.41 | 6.32 | 7.51 | 3.25 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.28 | 21.70 | 18.93 | 14.16 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 126 | 207 | 260 | 226 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.32 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 34.42 | 50.14 | 64.25 | 71.61 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 82.45% | 84.48% | 85.85% | 82.13% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (26.63) | (35.31) | (61.79) | (48.58) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (77.36%) | (70.43%) | (96.17%) | (67.83%) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (26.66) | (35.38) | (61.84) | (48.59) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.57 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 2.35 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 27.54 | 39.58 | 49.65 | 51.41 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.07) | (1.40) | (2.39) | (1.74) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (15.27) | (30.00) | (37.82) | (22.39) | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.42) | (1.09) | (7.09) | (1.18) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (15.69) | (31.09) | (44.91) | (23.57) | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 67.79 | 38.72 | 3.48 | (11.95) | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.39 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.07 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.10 | 0.35 | 3.68 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.04) | (0.62) | 0.37 | 0.99 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.57 | 0.79 | (0.41) | (2.15) | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (19.09) | (38.01) | (48.94) | (31.19) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.52) | (1.38) | (9.17) | (1.64) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (19.61) | (39.39) | (58.11) | (32.83) | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 76.77 | 90.81 | 36.84 | (27.19) | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.92 | 39.81 | 42.25 | 42.98 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (78.42) | (49.24) | 6.36 | 24.80 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 84.74 | 49.06 | 4.50 | (16.65) | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (23.83%) | (33.71%) | (64.64%) | (71.40%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (263.35%) | 0.00% | (324.79%) | (334.18%) | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (26.61%) | (52.89%) | (230.96%) | 799.72% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Avita Medical (RCEL), pioneer of the ReCell spray-on skin technology, boasts explosive revenue growth—up 8,700% from $730k in 2016 to $64M in 2024, with gross margins climbing to 86%—fueled by FDA approvals, U.S. burn center adoption, and global expansion. Yet, this dazzles against a grim backdrop: EBT losses ballooned 654% to -$62M, driven by rampant R&D and SG&A expenses, leaving forecasts showing revenue tripling to $136M by 2027 but profitability only a slim $6.6M then, after years of red ink.
Cash burn rages unchecked, with FCF per share cratering to -$45 and operating cash flow at -$49M in 2024; debt surged 10,500% since 2019, book value per share plunged 97%, and shares outstanding face 2,300% dilution to 30M by 2025, slashing per-share metrics. Insiders signal confidence, snapping up $205k in shares at 2025 lows with no sells, amid a stock hugging historical bottoms despite revenue ramps.
Valuation screams bargain—PS at 0.26x, EV/Sales 0.37x—with analysts eyeing 32% mean upside to 250% highs, but is it undervaluation or dilution trap? Revenue-stock disconnect post-2020 hype, execution scars, and capex drags raise skepticism: growth mirage or turnaround? Dive deeper to unpack the quant risks and probabilities.
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