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Wednesday 4 November 2026 Export PGR’s income statement to Excel — free account

The Progressive Corporation

PGR Financial Insurance Property & Casualty

The Progressive Corporation’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $87.7 billion, up 16.3% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
−3.61%
EPS
−1.80%
Free cash flow
−12.3%
Total debt
+21.7%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

234.92 5.81 +2.54%
Market cap
$133.1B
P/E
11.5×
Fwd P/E
12.4×
Dividend yield
6.07%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $234.92 the price implies more than 60% a year of growth for ten years.

The dividend a share grew 21.7% a year over the last ten years, 13.1% over the last five.

In December 2017 the price assumed 24.7% a year; The Progressive Corporation went on to grow the dividend a share 21.9% a year to FY2025.

Last 5 years, reported
13.1%
Last 10 years, reported
21.7%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
Its base case
20.0% a year for five years, then 12.0%
$4.51
98.1% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record The Progressive Corporation’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against The Progressive Corporation’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.21 × equity premium 4.5% = 5.2% cost of equity; weighted, 5.2%.

Use 5.2%
Base case value per share $4.51 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $234.92 market price per share
Below today’s price 98.1% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$1.56 10 years of dividends+$2.94 terminal value=$4.51 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Insurance Property & Casualty).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 11.50× 34.75× 24.66× 53% below 11.87× 3% below
P/FCF 8.33× 9.21× 8.44× 1% below 8.12× 3% above
P/B 3.89× 4.70× 4.04× 4% below 1.99× 95% above
EV/EBITDA — 19.60× 14.87× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 1.64× 1.44× — 3.90× —
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
6.21×7.89×9.58×11.27×10Y avg 8.44×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

PGR trades at 8.33× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 8.44× (range 5.83×–11.54×). That is cheaper than 56% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $238.04 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.