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The Progressive Corporation

PGR Financial Insurance Property & Casualty

The Progressive Corporation’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $87.7 billion, up 16.3% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+3.02%
EPS
−1.80%
Free cash flow
−12.3%
Total debt
+21.7%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

233.12 1.70 −0.72%
Market cap
$136.1B
P/E
11.7×
Fwd P/E
12.4×
Dividend yield
5.96%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $233.12 the price implies 3.3% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 21.7% a year over the last ten years, 13.1% over the last five. The price asks for less than its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 25.3% over ten years; the price implies 28.0% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 24.7% a year; The Progressive Corporation went on to grow the dividend a share 21.9% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
3.3%
Last 5 years, reported
13.1%
Last 10 years, reported
21.7%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
3.3% a year for ten years
$233.12
today’s price
Its base case
20.0% a year for five years, then 12.0%
$622.46
167.0% above today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record The Progressive Corporation’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 3.3% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against The Progressive Corporation’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.21 × equity premium 4.5% = 5.2% cost of equity; weighted, 5.2%.

Use 5.2%
Base case value per share $622.46 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $233.12 market price per share
Above today’s price 167.0% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$215.90 10 years of dividends+$406.56 terminal value=$622.46 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Insurance Property & Casualty).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 11.71× 34.79× 24.68× 53% below 12.17× 4% below
P/FCF 8.86× 9.32× 8.50× 4% above 8.04× 10% above
P/B 3.93× 4.71× 4.05× 3% below 1.85× 112% above
EV/EBITDA — 19.60× 14.87× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 1.64× 1.44× — 3.90× —
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
1.07×1.35×1.63×1.91×10Y avg 1.44×2016201720182019202020212022202320242025

EV/Sales has no reading today; its 10-year average is 1.44×.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.