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Progressive’s adjusted earnings per share were $4.60 in the third quarter of FY2026, above the consensus estimate of $4.46. Revenue on the basis used for the consensus missed the estimate, although both the reported figure and the estimate rounded to $23.4 billion. On the headline revenue measure, Progressive reported $21.7 billion, down from $22.5 billion a year earlier.
The company’s filing said net premiums written rose 4% to $22.3 billion, while policies in force increased 6% from September 2025. Personal Lines premiums written rose 4%, and Commercial Lines premiums written increased 9%.
Progressive said its companywide underwriting profit margin rose 0.8 points from a year earlier. The filing attributed a lower expense ratio primarily to Florida policyholder credits recorded in the prior-year quarter, partly offset by a higher loss and loss adjustment expense ratio. Operating cash flow was $12.5 billion for the first nine months of 2026, compared with $14.4 billion a year earlier; Progressive attributed the decline primarily to Florida policyholder credits paid in the first quarter.
| Q3 FY2026 | Q3 FY2025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.7 billion | $22.5 billion | −3.61% |
| Diluted EPS | $4.37 | $4.45 | −1.88% |
| Gross margin | 100.0% | 15.8% | 84.2 percentage points |
| Operating margin | 100.0% | 15.8% | 84.2 percentage points |
| Free cash flow | $3.5 billion | $4.0 billion | −12.2% |
| Against the consensus | Reported | Consensus | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.60 | $4.46 | Beat by 3.14% |
| Revenue | $23.4 billion | $23.4 billion | In line |
Adjusted EPS is the figure the consensus estimates, not the GAAP EPS above.
What management said on the call
In its filing, Progressive said premium and policy growth moderated from a year earlier amid increased competition, and it attributed lower personal auto policy life expectancy primarily to more shopping and competition. The company said personal auto rates were flat nationally during the quarter and that it would continue investing in advertising while spending remained efficient and it stayed on track for its calendar-year profitability goal.
Guidance
In its filing, Progressive said it expected cash flows to remain positive for the foreseeable future, although market or regulatory changes or unforeseen events could necessitate raising capital.