| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2024 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2022 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2021 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 203.32 | 158.69 | 168.95 | 147.19 |
| Receivables | 32.98 | 35.62 | 28.33 | 29.22 |
| Inventory | 49.22 | 59.39 | 47.61 | 47.32 |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 291.22 | 258.22 | 250.88 | 227.85 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 5.83 | 3.86 | 0.55 | 4.46 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 55.32 | 45.38 | 37.63 | 43.89 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 27.86 | 31.64 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 29.75 | 31.42 | 29.43 | 28.87 |
119.48
|
| ’24 | 28.17 | 27.39 | 28.67 | 29.47 |
113.69
|
| ’23 | 33.47 | 36.04 | 30.36 | 30.51 |
130.38
|
| ’22 | 30.55 | 25.06 | 27.76 | 32.01 |
115.38
|
| ’21 | 22.92 | 25.22 | 26.32 | 28.15 |
102.60
|
| ’20 | 7.19 | 11.74 | 13.76 | 17.25 |
49.94
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (12.84) | (9.63) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (25.66) | (4.82) | (6.32) | (9.52) |
(46.33)
|
| ’24 | (45.91) | (33.33) | (20.57) | (16.49) |
(116.30)
|
| ’23 | (44.76) | (28.18) | (34.00) | (24.44) |
(131.37)
|
| ’22 | (38.33) | (38.57) | (34.31) | (34.51) |
(145.73)
|
| ’21 | (38.62) | (30.84) | (28.13) | (32.68) |
(130.26)
|
| ’20 | (24.89) | (19.17) | (29.12) | (25.84) |
(99.01)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (12.91) | (9.75) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (25.79) | (5.11) | (6.48) | (9.74) |
(47.12)
|
| ’24 | (46.27) | (33.45) | (20.96) | (16.53) |
(117.21)
|
| ’23 | (45.57) | (28.97) | (34.78) | (25.49) |
(134.81)
|
| ’22 | (39.81) | (40.57) | (37.05) | (36.62) |
(154.05)
|
| ’21 | (39.53) | (31.69) | (28.62) | (33.53) |
(133.37)
|
| ’20 | (27.69) | (21.35) | (30.57) | (28.47) |
(108.09)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (1.03) | (0.97) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (3.66) | (1.04) | (1.00) | (1.09) |
(5.37)
|
| ’24 | (11.69) | (9.90) | (8.25) | (7.35) |
(36.88)
|
| ’23 | (13.49) | (13.49) | (13.94) | (11.54) |
(52.17)
|
| ’22 | (11.69) | (13.79) | (12.74) | (12.89) |
(50.67)
|
| ’21 | (10.49) | (9.90) | (9.75) | (13.04) |
(43.33)
|
| ’20 | 0.10 | (0.20) | (51.57) | (11.24) |
(72.71)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 171.15 | 43.50 | 6.53 | 3.10 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 730.65 | 458.25 | 88.20 | 25.35 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 518 | 480 | 354 | 310 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.39 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 115.38 | 130.38 | 113.69 | 119.48 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 15.46% | 22.24% | 33.92% | 39.13% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (162.66) | (172.27) | (127.48) | (80.93) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (140.98%) | (132.14%) | (112.13%) | (67.74%) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (162.96) | (172.80) | (127.98) | (81.65) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.62 | (0.56) | 1.01 | 2.09 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 35.92 | 39.45 | 32.83 | 7.85 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (50.67) | (52.17) | (36.88) | (5.37) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (45.37) | (39.75) | (33.58) | (3.05) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.59) | (1.04) | (0.26) | (0.05) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (47.96) | (40.79) | (33.85) | (3.10) | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 76.58 | 37.18 | 7.74 | 8.35 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.21 | 3.31 | 3.46 | 15.21 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.40 | 2.14 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.88 | 2.28 | 2.15 | 0.44 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.75 | 1.59 | 0.86 | (0.12) | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (6.56) | (1.54) | (0.84) | 0.31 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (145.73) | (131.37) | (116.30) | (46.33) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (8.32) | (3.44) | (0.91) | (0.80) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (154.05) | (134.81) | (117.21) | (47.12) | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 321.70 | 235.90 | 212.84 | 213.25 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 97.65 | 130.11 | 197.38 | 96.24 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (189.85) | (73.21) | 38.69 | (72.71) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 245.99 | 122.89 | 26.82 | 126.95 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (37.74%) | (48.41%) | (43.41%) | (30.23%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (179.25%) | (213.60%) | (108.17%) | (76.86%) | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (52.56%) | (93.69%) | (170.97%) | (106.20%) | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Outset Medical (OM) is poised at a critical juncture in the $100B dialysis market, with its FDA-cleared Tablo system offering a disruptive point-of-care alternative to traditional in-center hemodialysis. After a hyped 2021 IPO that propelled its market cap above $3 billion, the stock has cratered over 96% from peaks amid 2023 FDA warning letters, a Class I recall for air embolism risks, and ongoing cash burn, trading at deeply depressed valuations like 0.5x PS ratio—75% below medtech peers. Yet, revenue exploded post-IPO to $130 million by 2023 before a 13% 2024 contraction tied to the recall, with gross margins swinging dramatically from -118% in 2019 to 34% in 2024, signaling manufacturing scale-up and efficiency gains like 481% higher revenue per employee.
Financials show a narrowing path to profitability: net losses improved 26% to $128 million in 2024, with forecasts reaching breakeven EBT by 2025 amid moderated capex and stabilizing free cash flow. Balance sheet strains include 93% equity erosion to $27 million and debt tripling to $197 million, offset by $213 million working capital covering nearly two years of opex. Analyst consensus screams upside, with mean targets implying 195% appreciation (high 343%), backed by projected 24% revenue CAGR through 2027 and undervalued EV/Sales dipping to 0.44x.
While routine insider sells (no buys) temper enthusiasm and risks like regulatory recidivism, competition from giants like Fresenius, and dilution loom large, OM’s asymmetric risk-reward—blended fair value at 150% above current levels—positions it as a high-conviction watchlist play for recovery believers modeling Tablo’s 5% market share potential and 40% margins by 2030.
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