Nebius Group N.V. NBIS
- Market cap
- $64.1B
- P/E
- 892×
Follow NBIS
Target Price Range
Analyst price targets
Free account| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.00 | 20.20 | 24.90 | 26.77 | 27.93 | 58.91 | 14.11 | 18.94 | 14.09 | 18.31 |
Analyst estimates 2026–2028 Powerpack |
Low Price
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| 23.87 | 35.32 | 44.49 | 44.28 | 72.40 | 87.11 | 61.79 | 18.94 | 38.69 | 141.10 |
High Price
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| 6,271 | 7,445 | 8,767 | 5,784 | 11,864 | 18,004 | 20,850 | 26,361 | 1,371 | 1,543 |
Employees
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| 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
Revenue/Emp
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| 1,252 | 1,633 | 1,838 | 2,224 | 2,956 | 4,794 | 7,417 | 21 | 92 | 530 |
Revenue
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| 73.98% | 74.55% | 71.89% | 68.19% | 60.74% | 51.16% | 55.30% | (52.63%) | 52.24% | 68.63% |
Gross Margin
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| 183 | 236 | 784 | 290 | 504 | (97) | 1,000 | (339) | (353) | 14 |
EBT
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| 14.63% | 14.44% | 42.66% | 13.03% | 17.04% | (2.03%) | 13.49% | (1,623.92%) | (385.79%) | 2.60% |
EBT Margin
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| 112 | 150 | 660 | 142 | 327 | (197) | 677 | (341) | (352) | 10 |
Net Income
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| 173 | 207 | 185 | 202 | 303 | 438 | 574 | 29 | 77 | 439 |
Depreciation
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| 3.90 | 5.03 | 5.63 | 6.80 | 8.67 | 13.23 | 20.15 | 0.06 | 0.33 | 2.18 |
Revenue/Sh
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| 0.35 | 0.47 | 2.10 | 0.43 | 1.01 | (0.54) | 1.52 | 0.60 | (1.94) | 0.40 |
Earnings/Sh
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| 1.31 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.72 | 1.30 | 0.35 | 1.61 | 2.24 | 0.87 | 1.59 |
Cash Flow/Sh
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| (0.49) | (0.66) | (1.24) | (0.79) | (0.97) | (1.65) | (1.95) | (0.22) | (2.87) | (16.76) |
Capex/Sh
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| 0.82 | 0.61 | 0.01 | 0.93 | 0.32 | (1.31) | (0.34) | 2.01 | (1.99) | (15.18) |
Free CF/Sh
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| 3.96 | 4.43 | 8.94 | 8.34 | 13.75 | 10.11 | 13.06 | 8.88 | 11.58 | 18.94 |
Book Value/Sh
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| 321 | 325 | 327 | 327 | 341 | 362 | 368 | 371 | 281 | 243 |
Shares
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| 61.91 | 73.13 | 13.02 | 70.15 | 69.45 | 0.00 | 12.13 | 14.41 | 0.00 | 163.21 |
PE Ratio
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| 5.24 | 6.69 | 4.86 | 6.40 | 8.02 | 4.57 | 0.94 | 336.06 | 3.04 | 38.32 |
PS Ratio
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| 5.16 | 7.60 | 3.06 | 5.21 | 5.06 | 5.99 | 1.45 | 2.13 | 2.39 | 4.42 |
PB Ratio
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| 4.65 | 6.37 | 4.66 | 6.11 | 7.42 | 4.62 | 0.92 | 371.68 | 2.10 | 39.17 |
EV/Sales
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| 22.08 | 52.29 | 4,510.23 | 44.92 | 198.66 | (46.81) | (54.17) | 10.41 | 88.14 | (5.64) |
EV/FCF
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| 420 | 413 | 406 | 563 | 441 | 125 | 593 | 830 | 246 | 385 |
Op' Cash Flow
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| (156) | (214) | (404) | (260) | (331) | (599) | (719) | (83) | (806) | (4,066) |
Capex
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| 264 | 199 | 2 | 303 | 110 | (473) | (126) | 746 | (560) | (3,681) |
FCF
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| 995 | 784 | 989 | 935 | 3,096 | 1,196 | 741 | (417) | 2,269 | 3,184 |
Working Cap'
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| 309 | 310 | 275 | 346 | 1,248 | 1,523 | 1,029 | 866 | 6 | 4,128 |
Total Debt
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| (730) | (831) | (715) | (774) | (1,976) | 80 | (155) | 745 | (2,429) | 450 |
Net Debt
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| 1,271 | 1,438 | 2,919 | 2,729 | 4,685 | 3,662 | 4,808 | 3,294 | 3,254 | 4,594 |
Sh' Equity
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| 6.56% | 7.35% | 23.84% | 4.53% | 6.47% | (2.84%) | 7.14% | 2.75% | (10.43%) | 1.03% |
ROA
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| 24.47% | 23.31% | 8.52% | 10.33% | 5.08% | (2.98%) | 2.53% | (5.07%) | (30.27%) | (7.58%) |
ROIC
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| 10.03% | 11.25% | 31.44% | 5.76% | 9.31% | (4.73%) | 13.25% | 5.96% | (19.59%) | 2.10% |
ROE
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Nebius Group N.V. peers in Software Infrastructure
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| TWLO Twilio Inc. | $44.2B | 38.2× | Compare |
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| NET Cloudflare, Inc. | $126.1B | 0.0× | Compare |
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) key facts
- Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is a Software Infrastructure company in the Technology sector, listed on Nasdaq.
- As of September 29, 2026, NBIS traded at $239.33, a market capitalization of $64.1 billion.
- Return on equity was 2.10% and debt-to-equity 0.83.
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Latest News
29 Sep
Nebius hikes on-demand GPU prices starting Oct 1 after a capacity-auction cleared 15% above prior highs, signaling pricing power as demand outruns supply. Q2 revenue jumped 454% to $582.3M; adj. EBITDA margin 41%; remaining performance obligations total $37.49B. The business leases NVIDIA GPU clusters and holds a $27B five-year Meta deal, anchoring growth amid rapid expansion. But debt costs loom: convertible debt at $8.5B and interest expense rose to $119.1M; capex guidance of $20-25B suggests more fundraising. Analysts see ~22% upside with a $283.58 target; shares trade around $231.88, up 177% YTD, though pricing gains may be offset if financing costs rise or customers push back. Key 2027 guidance due later this year and could shift the outlook. Convertible debt and rising interest costs could offset pricing gains despite pricing power and strong revenue growth.
Michael Burry shifted from shorting Nebius to buying June put options, arguing an AI bubble could burst sooner and seeking more leverage. Nebius Group NBIS nonetheless rose 4% to about $241.80, extending a year-to-date rally; CoreWeave gained about 2%, while Cloudflare slipped roughly 0.6%. The First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) was flat with no Nebius exposure, helping NBIS diverge from the cloud group. BNP Paribas upgraded NBIS to Outperform with a $399 target, countering the bearish view. Burry’s move is based on weekend research; puts in the lower double-digit strikes would pay off only on a sizable drop. The story frames a split: bullish near-term sentiment for NBIS against a broader bear case for AI names, leaving catalysts and execution risk as the next watchpoints. Nebius’ shares rose 4% while a famous bear reversed his short and bought puts, signaling mixed sentiment that could affect near-term pricing but not fundamentals.
28 Sep
BNP Paribas analysts upgraded Nebius Group (NBIS) from Neutral to Outperform, lifting the price target from $260 to $399 and sending NBIS up about 7.4% intraday on Sept. 24. The upgrade credits Nebius' improved outlook as it rapidly expands AI cloud infrastructure, including a long-term cloud deal with Meta Platforms and a $10 billion plan to build an AI factory in Finland. Nebius is validating its first full Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 rack at its Finland data center, aiming to be among the earliest AI cloud providers to reach that milestone. The company also plans to raise pay-as-you-go prices for some Nvidia chips from Oct. 1 to stay competitive with CoreWeave. BNP Paribas projects roughly $22 billion in annual recurring revenue exiting 2027; Nebius posted a strong Q2 with revenue up 454% YoY and adjusted EBITDA turning positive. Upgrade and higher target plus ARR projections signal meaningful upside potential likely to shift sentiment and valuation.
Palantir shares jumped 77% since late June after Q2 revenue rose 93% year over year to $1.935 billion, with U.S. commercial revenue up 149%. Palantir lifted full-year revenue guidance to about $8.15 billion and raised U.S. commercial guidance above $3.42 billion. In September, it extended its sovereign AI pitch by naming Nebius as its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner and integrating Nvidia's Nemotron open models into Foundry and AIP. The stock has run ahead on a growth story focused on sovereign AI, and TIKR's mid-case values Palantir at $1,344 by December 2030, implying a 608% total return from a $190 price. While international commercial revenue grew only 26% in Q2, U.S. demand carries the story. Nebius' designation as Palantir's preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner signals a strategic collaboration with potential revenue impact.
27 Sep
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) will raise the on-demand price for Nvidia GPUs on Oct. 1, with B300 hourly rate climbing 21% to $9.50. The move comes as the company guides $3.0–$3.4 billion in revenue this year while planning $20–$25 billion in capital expenditures, underscoring an industry-wide squeeze on AI compute capacity. Earlier price bumps affected H100 and other GPUs; Nebius notes demand outpaces supply, selling out capacity as fast as it comes online. Capacity auctions have cleared at the highest prices Nebius has seen for Blackwell chips, and a Palantir partnership will speed capacity additions. Much of Nebius’s revenue is already booked in remaining performance obligations, so Oct. 1 pricing affects future capacity more than current revenue. Profitability has improved to EBITDA margins around 45–50% in early 2026. The stock trades near $243, valuing the firm well over $65 billion, more than 20x 2026 sales guidance. Pricing power from supply tightness could meaningfully affect Nebius's margins and growth trajectory as capacity ramps.
25 Sep
Palantir Technologies expands its AIP-based commercial AI business across healthcare, defense, and manufacturing, raises full-year revenue guidance, and deepens AI infrastructure via a sovereign-focused partnership with Nebius. Nebius is named Palantir’s preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, with Nebius compute integrated into AIP to handle sensitive workloads, expanding Palantir’s role as core data/AI infrastructure for governments and enterprises. The move offers growth potential but also highlights risks from a high valuation, regulatory and geopolitical scrutiny, and heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts. Analysts debate whether AI demand can accelerate as assumed and how international demand or government budgets could affect Palantir’s trajectory. The Nebius tie adds regulatory dynamics and could influence Palantir’s longer-term revenue/earnings narrative, though valuation questions persist. Nebius partnership could meaningfully expand NBIS's sovereign AI infrastructure footprint and revenue potential by aligning with Palantir, a major enterprise/government AI customer.
Nebius Group NBIS stock fell about 2.5% to $237.70 around 10:39 a.m. ET after BNP Paribas upgraded it to Outperform from Neutral and raised its price target to $399 from $260 (roughly 68% above the price). Q2 revenue reached $582.3 million, up 454% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of $236.2 million. Guidance kept full-year revenue run-rate at $7–$9 billion, and prepayments from customers were highlighted to fund new capacity. The GF Score is 55/100, indicating momentum but weak value, underscoring questions whether expanded capacity translates into profitable revenue given high costs, power limits, and utilization concerns. Upgrade and higher target may lift sentiment, but profitability concerns from capacity costs limit upside.
24 Sep
BNP Paribas upgrades Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) to Outperform from Neutral and raises its price target to $399, citing an improved outlook after Q2 results and potential to reach about $22 billion in annual recurring revenue by end-2027. The firm says consensus estimates could be materially reset as Nebius nears that ARR milestone. Nebius reported Q2 revenue of $582 million, up 454%, with AI revenue of $575 million, up 514%, and annualized run-rate revenue at $3 billion. The company is rapidly expanding its AI cloud infrastructure with capacity effectively sold out as new capacity comes online, including a long-term contract with Meta. Nebius raised Nvidia GPU instance prices by roughly 17%-21% starting Oct. 1. Analysts remain broadly constructive (7 of 9 Buy-or-higher), while Stocktwits sentiment is bullish and the stock is up about 191% YTD. Upgrade and higher target imply material upside and potential revenue growth acceleration.
Nebius Group NBIS surged after announcing a price hike on its AI cloud GPU services. Nvidia GPU rates will rise 17–21% and AMD EPYC Genoa CPUs 25% from Oct. 1, aiming to capitalize on strong AI demand. BNP Paribas lifted its price target to $399 and upgraded to outperform, citing higher pricing and AI demand. Shares rose 7.4% to $243.48. In Q2, NBIS posted a net loss of $190.4M on $582.3M revenue, but adjusted metrics improved: adjusted net loss $33.2M and EBITDA $236.2M. Hedge funds increased NBIS exposure to 86 funds with $8.28B in holdings. With 13F filings upcoming, investors will evaluate whether higher pricing can sustain revenue gains into Q4 and beyond. Pricing power and demand signals plus bullish investor sentiment could materially boost revenue in near term.
Palantir (PLTR) and Nebius Group (NBIS) announced a strategic partnership on Sept. 8 to embed Nebius's sovereign AI compute infrastructure inside Palantir's commercial platform. Nebius is named Palantir's preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner; Nebius compute and inference endpoints will sit inside Palantir's enterprise perimeter, enabling clients to deploy open models and run compute-heavy workloads with strict data control. They will collaborate on modular data-center deployments to rapidly scale capacity where power is available. Palantir gains dedicated, high-performance infrastructure to support U.S. commercial expansion and high net dollar retention; Nebius gains access to Palantir's enterprise customer base, bolstering backlog and monetization of its data-center buildout. Risks for Palantir include higher hosting costs and contract timing volatility; international growth remains slower. Nebius faces capital intensity, negative free cash flow, uptime requirements, and liquidity risk. Overall, a meaningful operational milestone for Palantir and a capital-intensive growth step for Nebius with uncertain profitability. Access to Palantir's enterprise client base could materially boost Nebius's revenue and backlog, but it reinforces its capital-intensive, execution-heavy growth model.
BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski upgraded Nebius Group (NBIS) to a buy from neutral and lifted the price target from $260 to $399, sending NBIS up about 9.5% midday. The upgrade coincides with Nebius reporting a growing backlog for its AI cloud infrastructure and rising demand for its compute capacity, including higher leasing rates for Nvidia chips starting Oct. 1 and steeper increases for other processing units and memory. The move underlines confidence in continued AI demand and Nebius's pricing power. Still, Motley Fool notes that Nebius is not among its top 10 stock picks, tempering enthusiasm. The new target implies roughly 76% upside from yesterday's close, adding to a sharp run in 2026. Upgrade and higher target signal meaningful investor expectations for NBIS growth and pricing power in AI compute.
Nebius Group (NBIS) shares rose about 8% after BNP Paribas Exane raised its price target to $399 from $260 and upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral. The broker cited improving demand for AI infrastructure and Nebius's ongoing pricing changes for its AI cloud services. The report notes broader pricing moves in compute capacity, with Nvidia GPU instances expected to cost 17%–21% more from Oct. 1 and AMD Genoa CPU services up about 25%, reflecting continued demand for AI training and inference. Nebius has signed several large customer agreements and the AI cloud segment posted rapid growth in the latest quarter, supporting the rosy outlook. Analysts’ targets across the sector vary, spanning roughly $84 to $410, underscoring divergent views while BNP Paribas' upgrade provides a bullish driver for NBIS near term. BNP Paribas Exane's upgrade to Outperform with a $399 target signals meaningful upside from AI cloud pricing and customer deals.
Bank of America boosted Nebius Group NV (NBIS) revenue outlook, projecting fiscal 2027 revenue of $12.7 billion (vs. Street $12.2B) and fiscal 2028 of $27.3 billion (vs. $24.9B). The firm reiterates Buy and $310 price target, citing Nebius' capacity allocation strategy that monetizes active power more efficiently. Nebius signs long-duration contracts with hyperscalers to stabilize utilization while reserving capacity for shorter contracts that command higher prices. One- to three-year contracts could generate roughly twice the revenue per watt of hyperscaler rates, while three- to six-month contracts may yield about four times. BofA sees potential upside to its assumptions in capacity additions, conversion of connected power into active power, and pricing dynamics, though execution to deliver planned capacity remains a key risk. Higher revenue expectations accompany margin revisions (1.7% in 2027, 9.7% in 2028) and capex growth to about $35B (2027) and ~$40B (2028). Significant upside potential from upgraded revenue outlook and large-capex plans, albeit contingent on execution.
Nebius Group (NBIS) has surged 182% this year as it builds AI-focused data centers and a software stack (Token Factory) to deploy AI workloads. In H1 2026, revenue jumped 529% to $981 million, aided by upfront prepayments (70% of Q2 deals) and a plan to exceed $9 billion in prepayments this year. Adjusted net loss narrowed 24% to $133.5 million; the latest quarter’s net loss fell 64% to $33.2 million. Backlog tops $40 billion; total contract value rose 4x in Q2 with four large deals averaging over $1 billion. ACV per megawatt exceeded $20 million; Q3 deals exceed $40 million. ARR is tracking toward $7-9 billion by year-end 2026 from $3 billion in June. A bull case envisions $23.5 billion revenue in 2028 and a $235 billion market cap, signaling a potential big jump despite high valuation. Massive backlog, large-scale contracts, and accelerating ARR suggest material growth and improved investor sentiment which could shift NBIS's trajectory, though outcomes depend on execution and market demand.
Michael Burry expanded a short against Nebius Group (NBIS) and other AI infrastructure and chip stocks, intensifying scrutiny of whether Nebius can fund a heavy AI-buildout while protecting margins. The move spotlights sensitivities to AI demand, capital intensity, and competition from open-source tools and hyperscalers. Nebius’ multi-year plan aims for 5 GW of AI infrastructure capacity with US$20–25 billion in capex; investors will watch updates on execution, balance sheet strain, and contract timelines. The article notes Nebius’ inclusion in the FTSE All-World Index and broader institutional interest, while signaling that Burry’s bet may test the durability of the AI cycle and pricing pressures. Key next test: any revision to power targets, capex plans, or delivery schedules could either reinforce caution or bolster confidence. Expanded short could influence sentiment and funding perceptions around Nebius' 5 GW plan and capex, potentially affecting stock trajectory.
23 Sep
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) posted Q2 revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% year over year, with an AI Cloud segment delivering about $574.9 million and a contracted backlog of $37.5 billion that dwarfs current revenue. Annualized run-rate revenue neared $3 billion, up roughly 598% YoY. Meta Platforms signed a $27 billion five-year contract; NVIDIA holds a $2 billion strategic equity stake, underscoring validation from both customers and suppliers. Cash stood at $8.04 billion; Q2 operating cash flow was $2.3 billion, and roughly 70% of Q2 deals included upfront prepayments, with more than $9 billion of upfront funding expected in 2026. Guidance reaffirmed for FY2026 revenue of $3.0–$3.4 billion and ARR of $7–$9 billion at ~40% EBITDA margin. Risks include three customers totaling ~59% of Q2 revenue and $8.5 billion convertible debt; shares up ~182% YTD. Backlog exceeds revenue and marquee contracts with Meta and NVIDIA stake could materially reshape growth trajectory despite near-term losses.
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is raising prices for its Token Factory AI-inference platform and PAYG dedicated GPU endpoints by up to about 20%, effective Oct. 1, citing sustained demand for high-end GPU capacity. Existing contracts and reservations remain insulated. The price increases follow Nebius's stronger-than-expected Q2 results, with AI Cloud revenue up 514% to $574.9 million and total Q2 revenue of $582.3 million; Adjusted EBITDA swung to $236.2 million from a year-earlier loss. The company reaffirmed full-year guidance of $3.0-$3.4 billion in 2026 revenue and expects ARR of $7-$9 billion by year-end. Analysts and retail chatter note that higher GPU spot prices could lift profitability in late 2026-2027. Nebius shares have surged roughly 182% year to date, with a five-session rally extending into overnight trading. Aggressive pricing amid record demand could materially boost NBIS profits and long-term growth trajectory.
22 Sep
Nebius NBIS rose more than 4% after a leaked pricing update suggested higher on-demand compute prices starting Oct. 1, signaling strong demand for its AI-infrastructure capacity. Nebius, which operates Nvidia-based data centers, posted Q2 revenue of $582.3 million (up 454% YoY) and AI cloud revenue of $574.9 million (up 514%), with ARR near $3 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 50%. It also secured four deals worth over $1 billion in total contract value, including with Reflection and Cohere. A Sept. 8 partnership with Palantir makes Nebius the preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, opening Palantir's enterprise clients to Nebius compute inside Palantir environments. Management cited rising ACV per megawatt and stronger bookings; new capacity deals exceed prior benchmarks. Risks remain due to heavy capex and utilization-driven profitability. Analyst consensus is Moderate Buy with a target around $281, implying upside. Higher pricing on compute services and a major partnership plus large bookings could materially lift margins and growth prospects.
Nebius Group (NBIS) was added to the FTSE All-World Index, boosting its visibility to global institutions. The AI infrastructure specialist has surged, up about 158.81% year-to-date and 118.39% over the past year, but recently retraced about 15.42% from highs. The stock now sits amid two competing narratives: bulls point to Nvidia backing and new index inclusion, while bears warn that premium pricing could invite upside risk as short interest rises. Simply Wall St presents two views: a bullish case that NBIS trades at a premium but is undervalued on a near-term fair value basis (analysts' fair value around $280 vs close of about $232.80), and a bear view that the sky-high price-to-sales ratio (~47.1x) versus peers (~10.1x) and the software group (~3.8x) implies limited upside. Risks include insider selling and potential reduced cloud-provider reliance. It also notes other AI-infrastructure peers attracting attention and urges broader due diligence. FTSE All-World inclusion could attract substantial institutional inflows and broaden NBIS's market demand and valuation trajectory.
Nebius Group NBIS posted a margin inflection in 2026, moving from negative EBITDA margin of -24.3% in Q4 2025 to 21.1% in Q1 2026 and 44.4% in Q2 2026, aided by capacity scarcity and price hikes. Q2 saw four landmark deals averaging over $1B each at $20–$25M per MW for 1–3 year contracts, plus some shorter-term deals at $40–$50M per MW. Pricing power expanded as Nebius raised GPU prices 17–21% and increased some CPU-only rates. Yet the company funded growth with heavy capex; FCF swung from -$214.9M in Q1 to -$3.41B in Q2, with total debt $10.06B and cash $8.04B. A $2.8B at-the-market raise occurred in Q2, and a $4.5B convertible note offering was announced, raising financing needs to roughly $250B total for a 5GW pipeline (only ~20% secured). EV/Revenue sits at 9.34x, well below peak, implying the market has not re-rated margin. The next test is whether FCF stabilizes in Q3 2026. Large, looming financing needs could materially alter NBIS's trajectory despite near-term margin gains.
Nebius Group NBIS is expanding AI compute capacity via large multi-year deals and a rising backlog. Q2 revenue reached $582 million, up 454% year over year, with the AI Cloud segment growing over 500% and annualized run-rate revenue near $3 billion. Remaining performance obligations total $37.5 billion, giving multi-year revenue visibility. The first capacity auction cleared about 15% above prior Blackwell pricing, and short-term GPU deals are fetching megawatt rates; management says 2027 capacity could be sold today at terms. Major customers include Meta ($27B) and Microsoft ($19.4B); NVIDIA committed a $2B equity investment. Q2 capex was $5.7B against $2.3B operating cash flow; full-year capex guidance is $20-25B. The convertible debt carries $8.5B on the balance sheet with a fair value of $20.8B, implying dilution risk if shares stay elevated. At prices, pricing power and a $37.5B backlog support upside, though Vera Rubin timing and asset-light partnerships remain key risks. Huge multi-year deals and backlog create meaningful growth potential but are tempered by capex/dilution risks and execution uncertainties.
Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated Nebius (NBIS) at Sell with an $84 target, about 62% below Monday's open of $223.54. The firm says Nebius carries the greatest downside risk among AI-infrastructure peers and that credit markets are pricing risks not yet reflected in equities, noting higher hyperscaler leverage and off-balance-sheet commitments that could constrain next-phase funding. Redburn is neutral on the sector, bearish on neocloud operators, and more constructive on traditional data-center REITs. Nebius seeks a capital-intensive expansion to deploy 5 GW of contracted AI capacity by 2030, estimated at $250B with roughly $200B still to finance, funded via equity, unsecured convertibles and asset-backed borrowing. It priced $5B of convertible notes in Aug after a $775M senior secured loan in July. End-Q2 cash was $8B; Q2 revenue rose 454% YoY to $582.3M, with Nebius AI at $575M and adjusted EBITDA $236M (41% margin). Redburn's Sell stance and a steep downside target signal material funding and execution risk that could materially affect Nebius's growth plan.
Nebius Group NBIS is highlighted as one of the fastest-growing AI stocks, backed by Nvidia and expanding rapidly in AI-focused cloud computing. The piece notes Nebius' Q2 revenue growth of 454% year over year, with Wall Street analysts expecting 521% and 535% growth in Q3 and Q4 2026, and 261% in 2027. It argues Nebius is investing heavily in building data centers to seize market share, which could delay profitability but is deemed prudent. A long-term model uses a 30% operating margin, similar to Google's Cloud, to derive a hypothetical 2027 value of about $109 billion if revenue hits an estimated $12.1 billion in 2027 and profitability is achieved. With a current market cap around $61 billion, the piece calculates roughly 79% upside, turning a $1,000 investment into about $1,790 by 2027. The Fool cautions about risk, noting Nebius may not become profitable soon. Outsized revenue growth projections and a path to profitability imply a potential major upside that could significantly shift investor sentiment and NBIS valuation.
21 Sep
Rothschild Redburn initiates Sell ratings on Nebius Group (NBIS) and CoreWeave (CRWV), warning that falling GPU rental prices, rising in-house hyperscaler capacity, and higher financing costs will compress neocloud economics. NBIS trades around 46x forward earnings with little pricing-power cushion; CoreWeave carries about $72.05B in liabilities against $5.02B in equity. Despite the downgrade, CoreWeave raised Blackwell and Vera Rubin SKU pricing by ~25%. NBIS reported Q2 revenue of $582.3M, backlog $37.5B, and capex ~ $5.7B, with FY2026 revenue guidance of $3.0–$3.4B. CoreWeave posted Q2 revenue of $2.575B, backlog ~104B, and July SKU price changes. Key risks cited include utilization, contracted revenue, power costs, financing, and how quickly new capacity translates into cash flow; the bear case hinges on deteriorating unit economics amid the capex wave. GPU-price erosion and higher financing costs threaten NBIS's unit economics and near-term margins, making the downgrade potentially material.
Rothschild & Co. Redburn began coverage on Nebius Group NV (NBIS) and CoreWeave (CRWV) with Sell ratings, arguing hyperscalers' off-balance-sheet commitments create real leverage that credit markets are starting to price in. Price targets: NBIS $84 and CRWV $54, while six Bitcoin-miners pivoting to AI infrastructure (Core Scientific, TeraWulf, Applied Digital, Cipher Mining, Hut 8, IREN) were started at Neutral. The note warns Nebius carries the most downside, CoreWeave less, and the overall risk-reward remains unattractive. Despite the downgrade chatter, NBIS and CRWV rose intraday (about +2.1% and +3.2%). GuruFocus flagged five warning signs on NBIS. The piece frames credit-market risk as a potential cap on AI infrastructure spend and investor sentiment around these names. Credit-market risk signals and Nebius's larger downside thesis could materially pressure NBIS valuation and sentiment.
Nebius Group NBIS has been a standout AI-name this year, gaining about 170% since 2026 began on surging demand for its AI compute services. It has since pulled back more than 20% from its 52‑week high near $300. Valuation remains steep, with a forward P/E around 45, well above the S&P 500 average and implying lofty growth expectations. In its latest quarter, revenue jumped 454% to $582 million, but the company still posted a net loss of $190 million as it scales. With a market cap near $60 billion, any cooling in AI spending—fed by rate-hike concerns and calls to slow development—could push the stock lower. The Motley Fool cautions investors not to rush in and notes Nebius wasn’t among its top Stock Advisor picks. Premium valuation plus potential AI demand slowdown could materially affect NBIS's future performance.
Advanced Micro Devices shares jumped about 7% to an all-time high as AI demand remains strong and chip shipments bolster the sector. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) said it planned to raise prices for AMD EPYC Genoa computing capacity by 25%, signaling pricing power amid robust data-center demand. AMD's data-center revenue rose 107% year over year to $6.7 billion in Q2, helping total revenue climb 50% to $11.5 billion. The rally reflects broad AI optimism and continued demand for AMD's data-center products, underscoring resilience in the AI-hardware cycle even as pricing actions come into play. A 25% price increase on AMD Genoa capacity could lift NBIS margins while potentially dampening demand, yielding a moderate overall impact.
20 Sep
Nebius Group NBIS faces renewed scrutiny as Michael Burry disclosed a new short at $211.77 a share, while Nvidia reportedly holds a 9.3% stake. Nebius raised compute prices for certain Nvidia chips, triggering pre-market moves that faded after the open amid high short interest. The company posted Q2 FY2026 revenue of $582.3 million (AI revenue $575m) and adjusted EBITDA of $236m, with $2.3 billion operating cash flow; guiding 2026 revenue of $3.0-3.4b and annualized run-rate revenue of $7-9b with ~40% EBITDA margin. Capex is guided at $20-25b. Nebius plans over 1 GW of capacity in 2027 and aims for 5 GW contracted power by year-end. Analysts sound bullish targets, though NBIS's 19% short interest and Nvidia stake create mixed sentiment. A high-profile short by a prominent investor, Nvidia backing, and aggressive capacity expansion combine to potentially shift sentiment and valuation, signaling meaningful medium-term impact.
Palantir Technologies expanded its alliance network with Fujitsu, NVIDIA, Method Security and Nebius. The renewed Fujitsu deal aims to scale Palantir software across international manufacturing and other sectors for digital-operations projects. A new NVIDIA supply-chain initiative, Method Security’s Cardinal cybersecurity program, and a preferred AI-infrastructure role with Nebius were announced, broadening Palantir’s AI stack into supply chains, cyber defense and sovereign cloud infrastructure. The moves bolster Palantir’s position in enterprise and government workflows but raise questions about concentration in sensitive government and defense use cases and U.S.-centric exposure. Investors should monitor forward-contract metrics and AIP adoption data, with attention to multi-year deals tied to NVIDIA deployments, Nebius sovereign-AI usage, and Cardinal program customers transitioning from pilots to paid Palantir platforms at upcoming earnings and AIPCon 11 disclosures. Nebius stands to gain from Palantir’s expanded deployments, but concrete contract terms and financial impact are not disclosed, making the potential upside moderate rather than assured.
18 Sep
Nebius Group signals rising capital outlays across AI infrastructure and data centers, highlighting accelerated sector-wide spending. Disclosure of AI spending surge directly supports Nebius core infrastructure business and investor outlook.