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Murphy USA Inc.

MUSA Consumer Cyclical Specialty Retail

Murphy USA Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $19.4 billion, down 4.25% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+34.8%
EPS
+41.3%
Free cash flow
+185.5%
Total debt
−2.33%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

514.46 12.04 +2.40%
Market cap
$9.3B
P/E
14.3×
Fwd P/E
15.3×
Dividend yield
0.64%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
6.93
Beneish M
−2.87
Dividend safety
84/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $514.46 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 3.8% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 18.1% a year over the last ten years, −1.2% over the last five. The price asks for less than its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 8.5%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 30.2% a year; Murphy USA Inc. went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 39.5% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
3.8%
Last 5 years, reported
−1.2%
Last 10 years, reported
18.1%
Industry median implies
8.5%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
3.8% a year for ten years
$514.46
today’s price
Its base case
18.1% a year for five years, then 10.9%
$1,314.49
155.5% above today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Murphy USA Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 3.8% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Murphy USA Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.32 × equity premium 4.5% = 5.7% cost of equity; weighted, 5.7%.

Use 5.7%
Equity value $24.69b ▲ above market cap $9.66b
Base case value per share $1,314.49 equity value ÷ 18.79m shares
Current price $514.46 market price per share
Above today’s price 155.5% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$9.54b 10 years of cash to equity+$17.15b terminal value−$1.99b net debt=$24.69b equity value÷18.79m shares=$1,314.49 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Specialty Retail).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 14.31× 14.91× 14.44× 1% below 19.32× 26% below
P/FCF 14.03× 17.46× 26.61× 47% below 12.81× 10% above
P/B 11.83× 11.18× 7.89× 50% above 2.19× 441% above
EV/EBITDA 8.95× 9.38× 8.82× 1% above 7.94× 13% above
EV/Sales 0.49× 0.48× 0.40× 22% above 0.75× 35% below
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
12.70×42.16×71.62×101.08×10Y avg 26.61×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

MUSA trades at 14.03× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 26.61× (range 9.18×–110.29×). That is cheaper than 56% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $975.93 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.