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Friday 6 November 2026 Export MSM’s income statement to Excel — free account

MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc.

MSM Industrials Industrial Distribution

MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2026 (year ended August 2026) was $4.0 billion, up 6.37% from fiscal 2025.

Revenue
+10.3%
EPS
−14.9%
Free cash flow
+8.93%
Total debt
−1.80%

Quarter to August 2026, against a year earlier

110.79 5.27 −4.54%
Market cap
$6.2B
P/E
27.8×
Fwd P/E
29.0×
Dividend yield
3.14%
F-score
8/9
Altman Z
6.22
Beneish M
−2.61
Dividend safety
50/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc. (MSM) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $110.79 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 11.8% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew −0.5% a year over the last ten years, 7.9% over the last five. The price asks for 12.3 points a year more than its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 13.7%.

In August 2017 the price assumed 8.4% a year; MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc. went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 1.2% a year to FY2026.

Price implies
11.8%
Last 5 years, reported
7.9%
Last 10 years, reported
−0.5%
Industry median implies
13.7%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
11.8% a year for ten years
$110.79
today’s price
Its base case
−0.5% a year for five years, then −0.3%
$39.70
64.2% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to August 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 11.8% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.80 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.9% cost of equity; weighted, 7.9%.

Use 7.9%
Equity value $2.22b ▼ below market cap $6.20b
Base case value per share $39.70 equity value ÷ 55.96m shares
Current price $110.79 market price per share
Below today’s price 64.2% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$1.30b 10 years of cash to equity+$1.33b terminal value−$411.92m net debt=$2.22b equity value÷55.96m shares=$39.70 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Industrial Distribution).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 27.77× 23.35× 19.34× 44% above 25.87× 7% above
P/FCF 27.34× 19.80× 18.77× 46% above 18.74× 46% above
P/B 4.34× 3.92× 3.56× 22% above 3.44× 26% above
EV/EBITDA 15.58× 13.49× 12.12× 29% above 13.98× 11% above
EV/Sales 1.65× 1.53× 1.49× 10% above 1.26× 31% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
11.42×16.96×22.50×28.03×10Y avg 18.77×2018201920202021202220232024202520262026

MSM trades at 27.34× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 18.77× (range 9.40×–29.34×). That is dearer than 78% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $76.04 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.