Morgan Stanley

MS Financial Capital Markets

Morgan Stanley’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $119.7 billion, up 11.5% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+6.69%
EPS
+8.48%
Free cash flow
−132.2%
Total debt
+19.4%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

183.12 10.85 −5.59%
Market cap
$286.5B
P/E
14.4×
Fwd P/E
14.3×
Dividend yield
2.35%
F-score
4/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

Morgan Stanley (MS) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $183.12 the price implies 34.8% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 18.0% a year over the last ten years, 19.7% over the last five. The price asks for about twice its ten-year rate.

Price implies
34.8%
Last 5 years, reported
19.7%
Last 10 years, reported
18.0%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
34.8% a year for ten years
$183.12
today’s price
Its base case
18.0% a year for five years, then 10.8%
$42.36
76.9% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Morgan Stanley’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 34.8% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Morgan Stanley’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.22 × equity premium 4.5% = 9.8% cost of equity; weighted, 9.8%.

Use 9.8%
Base case value per share $42.36 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $183.12 market price per share
Below today’s price 76.9% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$15.18 10 years of dividends+$27.18 terminal value=$42.36 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Capital Markets).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 14.35× 15.79× 13.61× 5% above 14.35× 0% above
P/FCF — 9.87× 9.87× — 9.28× —
P/B 2.63× 2.14× 1.70× 55% above 1.36× 93% above
EV/EBITDA — 1.71× 1.71× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 1.00× 1.00× — 3.90× —
9.01×11.83×14.65×17.48×10Y avg 13.61×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

MS trades at 14.35× P/E, against a 10-year average of 13.61× (range 8.26×–17.99×). That is dearer than 56% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $173.60 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.