MINISO Group Holding completed its buyback. Analysis indicates MNSO stock may be 64% undervalued. Buyback completion and undervaluation assessment can moderately affect MNSO investor sentiment and near-term trading.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 0.60 |
—
|
| 2025 | 0.62 |
—
—
|
| 2024 | 0.27 |
—
—
|
| 2023 | 0.41 |
—
|
| 2022 | 0.00 |
—
|
| 2021 | 0.00 |
—
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 966.57 | 894.29 | 955.81 | 1,054.24 |
| Receivables | 165.39 | 307.00 | 460.02 | 509.05 |
| Inventory | 208.58 | 382.58 | 513.45 | 522.38 |
| Other | 83.65 | 37.41 | 30.12 | 35.53 |
| 1,424.20 | 1,621.28 | 1,959.40 | 2,121.20 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 434.18 | 548.61 | 628.24 | 652.62 |
| ST’ Debt | 355.00 | 78.86 | 243.57 | 346.79 |
| Other | 42.12 | 44.97 | 133.87 | 151.85 |
| 558.75 | 796.65 | 1,178.59 | 1,352.12 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | 824.64 | 856.36 |
—
|
| ’25 | 814.25 | 865.29 | 610.06 | 693.24 |
2,982.84
|
| ’24 | 519.62 | 541.04 | 515.70 | 555.26 |
2,363.87
|
| ’23 | 389.74 | 361.66 | 430.16 | 3,632.00 |
1,649.85
|
| ’22 | 411.91 | 435.11 | 369.29 | 345.95 |
1,562.27
|
| ’21 | 305.19 | 352.14 | 340.28 | 372.21 |
1,369.82
|
| ’20 | — | — | 234.01 | 219.12 |
1,276.81
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | — | — | 358.58 |
358.58
|
| ’24 | — | 178.67 | — | 301.62 |
301.62
|
| ’23 | — | — | — | 60.92 |
239.58
|
| ’22 | 165.35 | 217.83 | — | 114.83 |
217.83
|
| ’21 | — | 138.36 | — | — |
138.36
|
| ’20 | — | 117.53 | — | — |
117.53
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | — | — | 227.56 |
227.56
|
| ’24 | — | 137.29 | — | 197.28 |
197.28
|
| ’23 | — | — | — | 50.18 |
215.28
|
| ’22 | (24.60) | 26.71 | — | (60.93) |
26.71
|
| ’21 | — | 111.79 | — | — |
111.79
|
| ’20 | — | 109.42 | — | — |
109.42
|
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | 0.59 | (0.14) |
—
|
| ’25 | 0.20 | (0.07) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
0.56
|
| ’24 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
1.15
|
| ’23 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.48 |
0.78
|
| ’22 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
0.31
|
| ’21 | (1.04) | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
(0.73)
|
| ’20 | — | (0.10) | 0.03 | (0.02) |
(0.24)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 4.45 | 10.50 | 12.51 | 13.95 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13.00 | 29.92 | 25.50 | 27.71 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3,372 | 3,696 | 7,003 | 8,329 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 0.36 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,562.27 | 1,649.85 | 2,363.87 | 2,982.84 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 30.44% | 38.73% | 44.94% | 44.99% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 140.47 | 335.57 | 465.64 | 266.15 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.99% | 20.34% | 19.70% | 8.92% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| — | ‡‡‡ | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 99.10 | 256.23 | 366.59 | 168.29 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 60.39 | 56.25 | 112.49 | 167.80 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.18 | 5.31 | 7.63 | 9.73 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.32 | 0.78 | 1.16 | 0.56 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.97 | 1.17 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.63) | (0.08) | (0.34) | (0.43) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.09 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.74 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.61 | 4.13 | 4.65 | 4.86 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 301.38 | 310.83 | 309.85 | 306.62 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 25.32 | 16.18 | 20.25 | 34.72 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.51 | 1.12 | 3.13 | 1.93 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.17 | 0.56 | 5.14 | 3.86 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.00 | (0.32) | 2.90 | 2.07 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 3.26 | (3.70) | 12.29 | 10.07 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 217.83 | 239.58 | 301.62 | 358.58 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (191.12) | (24.29) | (104.34) | (131.03) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 26.71 | 215.28 | 197.28 | 227.56 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 663.57 | 865.45 | 824.63 | 780.82 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 61.96 | 436.11 | 344.19 | 1,374.34 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (804.14) | (530.46) | (550.10) | 418.53 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,088.54 | 1,282.45 | 1,440.45 | 1,491.05 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.88% | 13.82% | 16.35% | 5.15% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 30.03% | 26.57% | 32.38% | 15.04% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.45% | 21.46% | 26.74% | 11.44% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO), the Chinese variety store sensation peddling irresistible impulse buys, staged a stunning post-COVID comeback: revenue exploded 43% to 2.36 billion RMB in 2024 after an 88% pandemic plunge, gross margins ballooned to a retailer-elite 44.9%, and net income surged 43% to 367 million RMB with EPS tripling projections by 2027. Free cash flow stays positive, debt vanished into a cash-rich balance sheet, and analysts are euphoric—price targets imply 700-1,045% upside, betting on 16-30% annual growth through store expansions and international pushes like TOPTOY.
Yet, this analyst raises red flags amid the hype: China’s stuttering consumer engine—youth unemployment at 21%, property woes, and flat CPI—threatens discretionary spending on MINISO’s knick-knacks, while capex spikes and employee bloat hint at expansion inefficiencies. No insider buying signals caution, stock volatility rivals Bitcoin, and 90% China reliance amplifies geopolitical risks like U.S. tensions and delisting fears. Valuation multiples scream premium (PB 5.14x, PS 3.13x), pricing in perfection that history’s wild swings (87% peak-to-trough crash) suggest could unravel.
Is MINISO a momentum rocket or a mirage on China’s fault lines? Fundamentals dazzle, but execution traps and macro headwinds could derail the train—dive into the full analysis for the data correlations, ROIC breakdowns, and contrarian bets that challenge Wall Street’s blind spot.
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