Lead Real Estate expands luxury residential and extended-stay hospitality footprint in Central Tokyo. Tokyo expansion supports growth in core operations but remains incremental for overall trajectory.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2025 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2024 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.74 | 8.71 | 17.80 | 6.69 |
| Receivables | 3.41 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| Inventory | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 9.15 | 8.87 | 18.06 | 7.03 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 4.71 | 4.03 | 6.94 | 10.33 |
| ST’ Debt | 43.06 | 45.66 | 50.92 | 76.38 |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 49.60 | 52.09 | 62.98 | 88.36 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | — | — | — |
126.25
|
| ’24 | — | — | — | — |
126.97
|
| ’23 | — | 74.70 | — | 52.63 |
127.33
|
| ’22 | — | 58.50 | — | 63.64 |
123.16
|
| ’21 | — | 62.04 | — | — |
123.16
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | 22.20 | — | — |
22.20
|
| ’24 | — | 10.53 | — | (10.07) |
10.53
|
| ’23 | — | (8.16) | — | (5.64) |
(8.16)
|
| ’22 | — | (25.21) | — | (12.28) |
(25.21)
|
| ’21 | — | 5.32 | — | — |
(2.30)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | 22.20 | — | — |
5.31
|
| ’24 | — | 10.53 | — | (12.64) |
(4.39)
|
| ’23 | — | (8.16) | — | (12.99) |
(17.24)
|
| ’22 | — | (25.21) | — | (12.28) |
(25.44)
|
| ’21 | — | 5.32 | — | — |
(2.30)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | — | — | — |
0.42
|
| ’24 | — | — | — | — |
0.31
|
| ’23 | — | 0.20 | — | 0.09 |
0.32
|
| ’22 | — | 0.19 | — | 0.11 |
0.31
|
| ’21 | — | 0.15 | — | — |
0.18
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 1.19 | 1.00 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.35 | 13.76 | 2.97 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 46 | 62 | 70 | 76 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 2.68 | 2.05 | 1.81 | 1.66 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 123.16 | 127.33 | 126.97 | 126.25 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Revenue
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.01% | 15.80% | 15.56% | 19.79% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.98 | 6.27 | 6.39 | 9.34 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.67% | 4.93% | 5.03% | 7.40% | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT Margin
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 4.54 | 3.92 | 4.20 | 5.67 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Net Income
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.38 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 0.74 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.85 | 10.19 | 9.50 | 9.25 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.42 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Earnings/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.02) | (0.65) | 0.79 | 1.63 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | (0.02) | (0.73) | (1.12) | (1.24) | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.04) | (1.38) | (0.33) | 0.39 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.51 | 1.60 | 2.12 | 2.47 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.50 | 12.50 | 13.36 | 13.64 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Shares
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.51 | 10.51 | 3.53 | 3.07 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
PE Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.11 | 0.10 | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
PS Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.22 | 4.22 | 1.00 | 0.73 | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
PB Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 0.35 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EV/Sales
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (3.15) | (3.15) | (4.13) | 7.40 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (25.21) | (8.16) | 10.53 | 22.20 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.23) | (9.08) | (14.93) | (16.89) | — | — | — |
Capex
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (25.44) | (17.24) | (4.39) | 5.31 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (56.80) | (40.44) | (43.22) | (44.92) | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 73.90 | 82.76 | 76.47 | 81.46 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 70.43 | 77.02 | 67.75 | 63.65 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 18.93 | 20.02 | 28.39 | 33.71 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.26% | 3.53% | 3.64% | 4.49% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.90% | 4.09% | 3.91% | 6.34% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 25.17% | 20.13% | 17.35% | 18.27% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd. (LRE), a micro-cap Chinese property developer, stands out as a beacon of resilience in a battered sector reeling from Beijing’s “three red lines” policy, Evergrande’s collapse, and slumping sales. While peers crumbled, LRE has stabilized revenue at $120-130 million through 2025, boosted gross margins to nearly 20%, and flipped free cash flow positive at $5.3 million—all with a rock-solid balance sheet featuring modest debt and sky-high ROE of 18%. Trading at dirt-cheap valuations (P/E 3.1x, PS 0.10x), the stock languishes 60% below 2025 highs, screaming undervaluation amid ADR illiquidity and China skepticism.
The real excitement? Analysts forecast a jaw-dropping 1,700% revenue explosion to $2.25 billion in 2026, propelled by a potential mega-project, merger, or REIT pivot, catapulting EPS to $1.47 and net income to $352 million. This transformative leap builds on 2025’s profitability surge—EBT up 46%, book value per share up 16%—positioning LRE for explosive rerating in a sector poised for stimulus-driven recovery.
With pristine fundamentals decoupled from price action and massive upside skew, LRE offers turnaround potential for patient growth seekers eyeing 50-100%+ returns as China real estate rebounds.
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