Saturday 10 October 2026
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Warrior Met Coal
HCC Basic Materials Coking Coal
Warrior Met Coal’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.3 billion, down 14.1% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 71.3%, EPS grew 1,400.0%, free cash flow grew 376.3% and total debt fell 2.93%, each against the same quarter a year earlier.
93.07
3.27
+3.64%
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Target Price Range
Analyst price targets
Free accountTen years at a glance Fiscal years to December
| Group | Line | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Trend | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price, $ | |||||||||||||||
| Price, $ | Low | — | 15.10 | 20.88 | 17.63 | 9.46 | 15.07 | 24.72 | 31.04 | 50.60 | 38.00 |
Analyst estimates 2026–2028 Powerpack |
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| High | — | 30.49 | 33.72 | 33.49 | 23.73 | 28.40 | 42.95 | 62.88 | 75.53 | 90.80 | |||||
| People | |||||||||||||||
| People | Employees | 1,130 | 1,354 | 1,395 | 1,417 | 1,401 | 704 | 854 | 1,143 | 1,336 | 1,485 | ||||
| Revenue/emp, $m | 0.33 | 0.86 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.56 | 1.50 | 2.04 | 1.47 | 1.14 | 0.88 | |||||
| Income, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Income, $m | Revenue | 369 | 1,169 | 1,378 | 1,268 | 783 | 1,059 | 1,739 | 1,677 | 1,525 | 1,310 | ||||
| Gross margin, % | 7.57 | 46.89 | 47.26 | 40.82 | 15.82 | 44.94 | 57.58 | 43.47 | 30.98 | 22.90 | |||||
| EBT | (111) | 416 | 471 | 367 | (56) | 200 | 783 | 551 | 284 | 54 | |||||
| EBT margin, % | (30.20) | 35.62 | 34.18 | 28.95 | (7.14) | 18.88 | 45.04 | 32.89 | 18.60 | 4.16 | |||||
| Net income | (111) | 455 | 697 | 302 | (36) | 151 | 641 | 479 | 251 | 57 | |||||
| Depreciation | 92 | 79 | 80 | 91 | 122 | 147 | 120 | 134 | 161 | 192 | |||||
| Per share, $ | |||||||||||||||
| Per share, $ | Revenue | 7.01 | 22.14 | 26.09 | 24.69 | 15.30 | 20.61 | 33.68 | 32.26 | 29.17 | 24.92 | ||||
| Earnings | (2.12) | 8.62 | 13.19 | 5.87 | (0.70) | 2.94 | 12.42 | 9.21 | 4.79 | 1.08 | |||||
| Cash flow | (0.95) | 8.23 | 10.59 | 10.37 | 2.20 | 6.84 | 16.31 | 13.49 | 7.03 | 4.36 | |||||
| Capex | (0.32) | (1.75) | (1.87) | (2.03) | (1.71) | (1.12) | (3.98) | (9.46) | (8.74) | (6.09) | |||||
| Free cash flow | (1.27) | 6.48 | 8.72 | 8.35 | 0.49 | 5.72 | 12.33 | 4.03 | (1.72) | (1.73) | |||||
| Book value | 14.30 | 7.82 | 13.49 | 14.91 | 14.17 | 16.97 | 28.04 | 36.07 | 39.99 | 40.74 | |||||
| Shares, m | 53 | 53 | 53 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 53 | |||||
| Valuation, × | |||||||||||||||
| Valuation, × | P/E | 0.10 | 3.10 | 1.83 | 3.61 | 0.00 | 8.77 | 2.58 | 6.61 | 11.30 | 80.89 | ||||
| P/S | 0.02 | 1.21 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 1.39 | 1.25 | 0.95 | 1.89 | 1.86 | 3.54 | |||||
| P/B | 0.02 | 3.42 | 1.79 | 1.42 | 1.50 | 1.52 | 1.15 | 1.69 | 1.36 | 2.16 | |||||
| EV/Sales | (0.03) | 1.48 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.25 | 0.67 | 1.56 | 1.66 | 3.45 | |||||
| EV/FCF | (0.42) | 5.07 | 3.35 | 2.97 | 51.78 | 4.49 | 1.82 | 12.45 | (28.13) | (49.73) | |||||
| Cash, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Cash, $m | Operating cash flow | (50) | 435 | 559 | 533 | 113 | 352 | 842 | 701 | 367 | 229 | ||||
| Capex | (17) | (93) | (99) | (104) | (87) | (58) | (205) | (492) | (457) | (320) | |||||
| Free cash flow | (67) | 342 | 461 | 429 | 25 | 294 | 637 | 209 | (90) | (91) | |||||
| Balance, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Balance, $m | Working capital | 226 | 161 | 345 | 315 | 297 | 505 | 1,020 | 921 | 717 | 563 | ||||
| Total debt | 34 | 376 | 494 | 395 | 439 | 403 | 339 | 189 | 194 | 243 | |||||
| Net debt | (134) | 323 | 271 | 187 | 218 | (2) | (499) | (558) | (312) | (110) | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity | 753 | 413 | 713 | 766 | 725 | 872 | 1,448 | 1,874 | 2,091 | 2,141 | |||||
| Returns, % | |||||||||||||||
| Returns, % | ROA | (12.74) | 46.89 | 58.35 | 22.03 | (2.61) | 10.56 | 36.73 | 21.83 | 10.13 | 2.12 | ||||
| ROIC | (10.21) | 35.95 | 32.29 | 25.16 | (1.80) | 17.50 | 52.81 | 25.71 | 8.96 | 1.41 | |||||
| ROE | 328.42 | 78.05 | 123.80 | 40.82 | (4.80) | 18.89 | 55.30 | 28.82 | 12.64 | 2.69 | |||||
Negative figures in brackets.
Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Jun 2026
Charts ten years each
Warrior Met Coal vs peers in Coking Coal (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Revenue growth (Q) | EPS growth (Q) | FCF growth (Q) | Gross margin (Q) | EBIT margin (Q) | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC Warrior Met Coal | $4.7B | 22.4× | 15.4× | +71.31% (above 0%: growing) | +1,400.00% (above 0%: growing) | +376.32% (above 0%: growing) | 31.90% | 18.54% | |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | $2.2B | — (loss-making) | 56.5× | −10.43% (below 0%: shrinking) | n/m | −128.43% (below 0%: shrinking) | 9.98% | (2.13%) | Compare |
| SXC SunCoke Energy, Inc. | $827.5M | — (loss-making) | 42.2× | +9.49% (above 0%: growing) | +650.00% (above 0%: growing) | −979.59% (below 0%: shrinking) | 21.12% | 6.10% | Compare |
| METCB Ramaco Resources, Inc. | $682.3M | — (loss-making) | — | −5.33% (below 0%: shrinking) | n/m | +22.91% (above 0%: growing) | 11.48% | (12.60%) | Compare |
| METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. | $495.0M | — (loss-making) | — (loss-making) | −5.33% (below 0%: shrinking) | n/m | +22.91% (above 0%: growing) | 11.48% | (12.60%) | Compare |
| AREC American Resources Corporation | $176.5M | 2.4× | — (loss-making) | +84.87% (above 0%: growing) | n/m | −100.92% (below 0%: shrinking) | (341.28%) | (10,650.55%) | Compare |
| Median of peers | $682.3M | — | — | −5.33% | — | −100.92% | 11.48% | (12.60%) |
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) key facts
- Concern: Warrior Met Coal’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.3 billion, down 14.1% from fiscal 2024.
- Concern: Net income was $57.0 million, or $1.08 per share (basic), a net margin of 4.35%.
- Warrior Met Coal (HCC) is a Coking Coal company in the Basic Materials sector, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
- As of October 9, 2026, HCC traded at $93.07, a market capitalization of $4.7 billion.
- At that price the stock trades at 22.4× trailing-twelve-month earnings and 2.9× sales; its P/E is higher than 81% of its own readings over the past ten years.
- Warrior Met Coal pays an annual dividend of $0.32 per share, a yield of 0.34%, with a payout ratio of 7.69%.
- Return on equity was 2.69% and debt-to-equity 0.10.
- Its Piotroski F-score is 3 out of 9 and its Altman Z-score is 6.05 (safe zone) for fiscal 2025.