Warrior Met Coal
HCC Basic Materials Coking Coal
Warrior Met Coal’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.3 billion, down 14.1% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 71.3%, EPS grew 1,400.0%, free cash flow grew 376.3% and total debt fell 2.93%, each against the same quarter a year earlier.
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Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Beneish M-score
Warrior Met Coal's Beneish M-score for fiscal 2025 is −2.43; values above −1.78 are the model's flag for possible earnings manipulation — a statistical screen, not a finding.
Beneish M-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Beneish M-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −2.43 | (0.32) |
| FY2024 | −2.10 | 0.84 |
| FY2023 | −2.94 | (0.13) |
| FY2022 | −2.82 | 0.27 |
| FY2021 | −3.09 | (0.68) |
| FY2020 | −2.41 | 1.14 |
| FY2019 | −3.55 | (1.96) |
| FY2018 | −1.59 | 0.75 |
| FY2017 | −2.34 | (1.15) |
| FY2016 | −1.19 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days’ sales in receivables index | 1.50 | — | 1.38 | |
| Gross margin index | 1.35 | — | 0.71 | |
| Asset quality index | 0.88 | — | 0.35 | |
| Sales growth index | 0.86 | — | 0.77 | |
| Depreciation index | 0.99 | — | 0.11 | |
| SG&A index | 1.21 | — | −0.21 | |
| Total accruals to total assets | (0.06) | — | −0.29 | |
| Leverage index | 1.28 | — | −0.42 | |
| Beneish M-score | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation | −2.43 | ||
How the Beneish M-score works
M = −4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI (Beneish, 1999): eight changes in the accounts from one fiscal year to the next, which the model weighs for the pattern seen in companies that later restated their earnings. Higher is worse.
| below −2.22 | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation |
|---|---|
| −2.22 to −1.78 | Elevated |
| above −1.78 | Flagged by the model |
−1.78 is the cut-off usually quoted from the paper, −2.22 a common conservative one. A statistical screen, not a finding of wrongdoing.
When asset quality, depreciation or SG&A cannot be worked out, that index is set to 1, as Beneish did, and the breakdown says so; with all three missing there is no score. Depreciation includes amortisation, and asset quality leaves out securities. Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs.
Beneish M-score against peers
| Company | Beneish M-score |
|---|---|
| METC Ramaco Resources, Inc. compare | −3.2× |
| METCB Ramaco Resources, Inc. compare | −3.2× |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. compare | −2.7× |
| HCC Warrior Met Coal | −2.4× |
| SXC SunCoke Energy, Inc. compare | −2.1× |
| AREC American Resources Corporation compare | — |
What Beneish M-score is
The Beneish M-Score combines eight year-on-year changes in the accounts into a statistical screen for patterns seen in companies that overstated earnings.
−4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI