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Fastenal Company

FAST Industrials Industrial Distribution

Fastenal Company’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $8.2 billion, up 8.67% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+15.5%
EPS
+20.7%
Free cash flow
+5.27%
Total debt
−48.7%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

52.80 0.41 −0.77%
Market cap
$60.7B
P/E
42.6×
Fwd P/E
40.8×
Dividend yield
1.89%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
29.34
Beneish M
−2.39
Dividend safety
51/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Fastenal Company (FAST) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $52.80 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 18.2% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 11.9% a year over the last ten years, 6.6% over the last five. The price asks for about twice its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 13.7%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 12.4% a year; Fastenal Company went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 10.7% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
18.2%
Last 5 years, reported
6.6%
Last 10 years, reported
11.9%
Industry median implies
13.7%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
18.2% a year for ten years
$52.80
today’s price
Its base case
11.9% a year for five years, then 7.1%
$27.98
47.0% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Fastenal Company’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 18.2% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Fastenal Company’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.66 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.3% cost of equity; weighted, 7.3%.

Use 7.3%
Equity value $32.19b ▼ below market cap $60.74b
Base case value per share $27.98 equity value ÷ 1.15b shares
Current price $52.80 market price per share
Below today’s price 47.0% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$12.72b 10 years of cash to equity+$19.36b terminal value+$111.90m net cash=$32.19b equity value÷1.15b shares=$27.98 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Industrial Distribution).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 42.58× 34.22× 31.73× 34% above 25.87× 65% above
P/FCF 51.07× 40.14× 38.76× 32% above 18.74× 173% above
P/B 14.60× 11.42× 10.14× 44% above 3.44× 324% above
EV/EBITDA 29.58× 23.44× 21.25× 39% above 13.98× 112% above
EV/Sales 6.66× 5.32× 4.85× 37% above 1.26× 429% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
21.59×28.20×34.80×41.41×10Y avg 31.73×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

FAST trades at 42.58× P/E, against a 10-year average of 31.73× (range 19.88×–42.58×). That is dearer than 100% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $39.34 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.