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Friday 6 November 2026
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Churchill Downs, Incorporated
CHDN Consumer Cyclical Gambling
Churchill Downs, Incorporated’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $2.9 billion, up 7.01% from fiscal 2024.
- Revenue
- +1.90%
- EPS
- +111.7%
- Free cash flow
- +252.7%
- Total debt
- −7.52%
Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier
98.25
0.25
+0.26%
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Target Price Range
Analyst price targets
Free accountTen years at a glance Fiscal years to December
| Ten-year view | Analyst estimates Powerpack | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Line | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | TTM Sep ’26 | Trend | 10 yrs | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | Next 3/yr |
| Income, $m | ||||||||||||||||||
| Income, $m | Revenue | 822 | 883 | 1,009 | 1,330 | 1,054 | 1,597 | 1,810 | 2,462 | 2,734 | 2,926 | 3,005 | +15.1% | 3,010 | 3,104 | 3,210 | +3.1% | |
| Gross margin, % | 27.77 | 28.69 | 28.71 | 25.80 | 18.36 | 27.93 | 31.30 | 32.32 | 34.32 | 33.58 | 34.13 | +5.8 pt | ||||||
| EBT | 147 | 103 | 234 | 196 | 8 | 344 | 609 | 562 | 573 | 532 | 635 | +15.3% | ||||||
| EBT margin, % | 17.92 | 11.61 | 23.18 | 14.77 | 0.76 | 21.51 | 33.64 | 22.82 | 20.96 | 18.20 | 21.15 | +0.3 pt | ||||||
| Net income | 108 | 141 | 353 | 137 | (82) | 249 | 439 | 417 | 429 | 386 | 457 | +15.2% | ||||||
| Per share, $ | ||||||||||||||||||
| Per share, $ | Revenue | 8.34 | 9.35 | 12.22 | 16.58 | 13.31 | 20.69 | 23.84 | 32.74 | 36.95 | 40.98 | 42.93 | +19.3% | |||||
| Earnings | 1.09 | 1.49 | 4.27 | 1.72 | (1.03) | 3.23 | 5.79 | 5.55 | 5.73 | 5.32 | 6.44 | +19.3% | ||||||
| Cash flow | 2.35 | 2.28 | 2.39 | 3.65 | 1.81 | 5.95 | 6.73 | 8.05 | 10.43 | 10.78 | 10.80 | +18.5% | ||||||
| Capex | (0.30) | (1.24) | (1.81) | (2.04) | (2.96) | (1.19) | (2.34) | (6.39) | (7.39) | (6.45) | (3.23) | +40.9% | ||||||
| Free cash flow | 2.05 | 1.04 | 0.59 | 1.61 | (1.15) | 4.76 | 4.39 | 1.66 | 3.04 | 4.34 | 7.57 | +8.7% | ||||||
| Book value | 6.95 | 6.78 | 5.73 | 6.37 | 4.64 | 3.97 | 7.27 | 11.88 | 14.64 | 14.14 | 19.70 | +8.2% | ||||||
| Shares, m | 99 | 94 | 83 | 80 | 79 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 71 | 70 | (3.5%) | ||||||
| Valuation, × | ||||||||||||||||||
| Valuation, × | P/E | 22.98 | 26.78 | 9.68 | 40.12 | 0.00 | 37.35 | 18.20 | 24.12 | 23.31 | 21.51 | 15.25 | 22.4 | |||||
| P/S | 2.03 | 4.13 | 3.33 | 4.14 | 7.32 | 5.82 | 4.41 | 4.09 | 3.61 | 2.78 | 2.29 | 4.2 | ||||||
| P/B | 3.54 | 5.69 | 7.10 | 10.77 | 21.01 | 30.31 | 14.47 | 11.27 | 9.12 | 8.04 | 4.99 | 12.1 | ||||||
| EV/Sales | 2.74 | 5.31 | 4.03 | 5.14 | 8.74 | 6.83 | 6.84 | 5.96 | 5.32 | 4.43 | 3.77 | 5.5 | ||||||
| EV/FCF | 16.73 | 51.47 | 98.54 | 53.93 | (73.37) | 32.76 | 38.33 | 180.83 | 80.13 | 46.97 | 36.46 | 52.6 | ||||||
| Cash, $m | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash, $m | Operating cash flow | 231 | 215 | 198 | 293 | 143 | 460 | 511 | 605 | 772 | 770 | 756 | +14.3% | |||||
| Capex | (29) | (117) | (149) | (163) | (234) | (92) | (178) | (481) | (547) | (460) | (226) | +35.9% | ||||||
| Free cash flow | 202 | 98 | 48 | 129 | (91) | 368 | 333 | 125 | 225 | 310 | 530 | +4.8% | ||||||
| Balance, $m | ||||||||||||||||||
| Balance, $m | Working capital | (222) | (197) | (15) | (80) | (189) | 107 | (277) | (355) | (317) | (290) | (904) | +3.0% | |||||
| Net debt | 842 | 1,046 | 711 | 1,331 | 1,501 | 1,612 | 4,401 | 4,615 | 4,655 | 4,842 | 4,463 | +21.5% | ||||||
| Shareholders’ equity | 685 | 640 | 473 | 511 | 367 | 307 | 552 | 894 | 1,084 | 1,010 | 1,379 | +4.4% | ||||||
| Returns, % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Returns, % | ROA | 4.77 | 6.09 | 17.27 | 6.43 | (3.13) | 8.79 | 9.56 | 6.34 | 6.00 | 5.19 | 6.10 | +0.4 pt | |||||
| ROIC | 7.06 | 5.40 | 9.96 | 7.32 | 2.01 | 9.26 | 4.06 | 6.40 | 7.72 | 7.30 | 8.20 | +0.2 pt | ||||||
| ROE | 16.60 | 21.20 | 63.36 | 27.94 | (18.65) | 73.93 | 102.39 | 57.75 | 43.17 | 36.59 | 37.70 | +20.0 pt | ||||||
| People | ||||||||||||||||||
| People | Employees | 4,000 | 4,300 | 4,100 | 5,500 | 7,000 | 5,000 | 7,000 | 7,970 | 8,870 | 9,000 | — | +9.4% | |||||
| Revenue/emp, $m | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.33 | — | +5.2% | ||||||
Negative figures in brackets.
estimates
Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Sep 2026 · fundamentals updated 2 Nov 2026
Business profile
Where the money comes from and where it goes Fiscal 2025
| Live and Historical | 1,395 | 47.67% |
|---|---|---|
| Gaming | 1,043 | 35.64% |
| Wagering Services and Solutions | 488 | 16.69% |
| Other | 0 | 0.00% |
| Gross margin | 33.58% | |
| Operating margin | 23.37% | |
| Pre-tax margin | 18.20% |
Churchill Downs, Incorporated vs peers in Gambling (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Revenue growth (Q) | EPS growth (Q) | FCF growth (Q) | Gross margin (Q) | EBIT margin (Q) | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DKNG DraftKings Inc. | $20.9B | — (loss-making) | — (loss-making) | −4.58% (below 0%: shrinking) | n/m | −51.62% (below 0%: shrinking) | 38.21% | (4.72%) | Compare |
| FLUT Flutter Entertainment PLC | $14.4B | — (loss-making) | — (loss-making) | +2.11% (above 0%: growing) | n/m | +664.00% (above 0%: growing) | 39.18% | (30.74%) | Compare |
| LNWO Light & Wonder, Inc. | $7.0B | 21.8× | 16.5× | −2.02% (below 0%: shrinking) | +27.01% (above 0%: growing) | +124.76% (above 0%: growing) | 75.61% | 29.37% | Compare |
| CHDN Churchill Downs, Incorporated | $6.7B | 15.2× | 14.0× | +1.90% (above 0%: growing) | +111.65% (above 0%: growing) | +252.66% (above 0%: growing) | 29.74% | 20.55% | |
| SGHC Super Group (SGHC) Limited | $5.9B | 14.0× | 12.7× | +9.69% (above 0%: growing) | +46.95% (above 0%: growing) | −17.12% (below 0%: shrinking) | 100.00% | 27.66% | Compare |
| RSI Rush Street Interactive, Inc. | $2.7B | 24.3× | 30.9× | +38.84% (above 0%: growing) | +313.00% (above 0%: growing) | +90.25% (above 0%: growing) | 36.39% | 11.05% | Compare |
| BRSL Brightstar Lottery | $1.8B | 7.7× | 17.2× | −7.45% (below 0%: shrinking) | n/m | −719.07% (below 0%: shrinking) | 46.92% | 19.69% | Compare |
| ACEL Accel Entertainment, Inc. | $1.1B | 17.6× | 16.1× | +10.27% (above 0%: growing) | +57.13% (above 0%: growing) | +79.67% (above 0%: growing) | 31.38% | 7.92% | Compare |
| CDRO Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. | $387.0M | — (loss-making) | — | +232.74% (above 0%: growing) | +94.12% (above 0%: growing) | +7,111.62% (above 0%: growing) | 47.71% | 0.00% | Compare |
| Median of peers | $4.3B | 17.6× | 16.5× | +5.90% | +57.13% | +84.96% | 43.05% | 9.49% |
From the latest earnings call
- CEO William Carstanjen expects transactions for nine regional gaming properties by year-end and plans to use proceeds for debt reduction, repurchases and selective investment.
- CFO Marcia Dall said Kentucky historical racing earnings grew, while competition and a new racing-days tax affected the company’s Central Virginia venues.
Largest institutional holders 13F, quarter to 30 June 2026
Held by institutions
85.89%
Held by the ten largest
39.25%
| Holder | Shares | Stake | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard | 6.72m | 9.64% | +503.87k |
| BlackRock | 6.20m | 8.90% | −251.08k |
| Fidelity (FMR) | 2.95m | 4.23% | +1.24m |
| LONDON CO OF VIRGINIA | 2.46m | 3.54% | −129.29k |
| State Street | 2.05m | 2.94% | +46.72k |
| Citadel Advisors | 1.71m | 2.46% | +442.98k |
| Arrowstreet Capital | 1.44m | 2.07% | +67.72k |
| Geode Capital Management | 1.34m | 1.93% | −68.03k |
| Jennison Associates | 1.26m | 1.80% | +122.86k |
| Balyasny Asset Management L.P. | 1.22m | 1.75% | +611.74k |
13F filings for the quarter to 30 June 2026: long positions in US-listed shares reported by managers with $100m or more, ~45 days after the quarter.
Pay and ownership Proxy statement filed 12 March 2026
Chief executive’s pay
| Year | Total pay | Actually paid | $100 invested |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19.17m | 13.05m | 118.66 |
| 2024 | 15.10m | 20.42m | 138.75 |
| 2023 | 12.21m | 27.98m | 139.80 |
| 2022 | 12.09m | 7.80m | 109.18 |
| 2021 | 13.76m | 43.16m | 124.01 |
Ownership
Directors and executive officers, together
5.87%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. and affiliates
9.65%
BlackRock, Inc. and affiliates
9.58%
Total pay is as the Summary Compensation Table states it; actually paid revalues the year’s share awards
at its end, as the SEC’s pay-versus-performance rule asks. $100 invested is what $100 in the company’s
shares at the start of the earliest year shown was worth at each year’s end.
Ownership is the proxy’s own table: the directors and officers as a group, and every holder of 5% or more.
Read the proxy statement
Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) Latest News
29 Oct
28 Oct
17 Sep
14 Sep
4 Aug
CHDN metrics, ten years each
- Revenue
- Net income
- EPS (diluted)
- EBITDA
- Free cash flow
- Operating cash flow
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
- Free cash flow margin
- P/E ratio
- P/S ratio
- P/B ratio
- Price to free cash flow
- EV/EBITDA
- EV/Sales
- EV/FCF
- Return on equity
- Return on assets
- Return on invested capital
- Debt to equity
- Current ratio
- Total debt
- Shares outstanding
- Book value per share
- Revenue growth
- Piotroski F-score
- Altman Z-score
- Beneish M-score
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates horse racing, wagering and gaming businesses. It is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, and William C. Carstanjen is its chief executive officer. Its operations include Churchill Downs Racetrack, home of the Kentucky Derby, historical racing venues, regional casinos and online wagering services.
Historical racing venues offer machines on which customers wager on previously run races. The company also operates live racing venues, where customers can attend races and place bets, and casinos offering games such as slots and table games. Food, drinks, hotel rooms and event services accompany gaming at many properties.