APi Group lifts full-year guidance on bolt-on M&A activity that reinforces the view the shares remain undervalued. Guidance increase from M&A shows positive but limited operational momentum without altering long-term trajectory.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 3 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 479.00 | 499.00 | 912.00 | 851.00 |
| Receivables | 1,395.00 | 1,444.00 | 1,563.00 | 1,706.00 |
| Inventory | 150.00 | 143.00 | 145.00 | 172.00 |
| Other | 436.00 | 453.00 | 484.00 | 630.00 |
| 2,582.00 | 2,658.00 | 3,229.00 | 3,530.00 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 472.00 | 497.00 | 526.00 | 554.00 |
| ST’ Debt | 5.00 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 306.00 |
| Other | 548.00 | 610.00 | 754.00 | 866.00 |
| 1,807.00 | 1,885.00 | 2,150.00 | 2,541.00 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 1,982.00 | 2,254.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 1,719.00 | 1,990.00 | 2,085.00 | 2,117.00 |
7,911.00
|
| ’24 | 1,601.00 | 1,730.00 | 1,826.00 | 1,861.00 |
7,018.00
|
| ’23 | 1,614.00 | 1,771.00 | 1,784.00 | 1,759.00 |
6,928.00
|
| ’22 | 1,471.00 | 1,649.00 | 1,735.00 | 1,703.00 |
6,558.00
|
| ’21 | 803.00 | 978.00 | 1,047.00 | 1,112.00 |
3,940.00
|
| ’20 | 858.00 | 889.00 | 958.00 | 882.00 |
3,587.00
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 85.00 | 83.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 62.00 | 83.00 | 232.00 | 382.00 |
759.00
|
| ’24 | 7.00 | 110.00 | 220.00 | 283.00 |
620.00
|
| ’23 | (1.00) | 74.00 | 144.00 | 297.00 |
514.00
|
| ’22 | (118.00) | 54.00 | 146.00 | 188.00 |
270.00
|
| ’21 | 32.00 | (13.00) | 49.00 | 114.00 |
182.00
|
| ’20 | 55.00 | 177.00 | 97.00 | 167.00 |
496.00
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 69.00 | 54.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 54.00 | 62.00 | 204.00 | 371.00 |
691.00
|
| ’24 | 8.00 | 92.00 | 204.00 | 265.00 |
569.00
|
| ’23 | (18.00) | 54.00 | 130.00 | 316.00 |
482.00
|
| ’22 | (127.00) | 35.00 | 124.00 | 176.00 |
208.00
|
| ’21 | 16.00 | (20.00) | 42.00 | 109.00 |
147.00
|
| ’20 | 45.00 | 176.00 | 97.00 | 157.00 |
475.00
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 0.12 | 0.20 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.20 | (1.19) |
(0.69)
|
| ’24 | (0.89) | 0.15 | 0.15 | (0.07) |
(0.56)
|
| ’23 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.10 | (0.72) |
(0.45)
|
| ’22 | (0.05) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
0.07
|
| ’21 | (0.03) | 0.06 | 0.05 | (0.50) |
(0.45)
|
| ’20 | (0.76) | 0.11 | 0.09 | (0.96) |
(1.47)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.73 | 12.22 | 20.17 | 20.50 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.89 | 23.28 | 27.26 | 40.58 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 26,000 | 29,000 | 29,000 | 29,000 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.27 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,558.00 | 6,928.00 | 7,018.00 | 7,911.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 26.14% | 28.00% | 31.03% | 31.44% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 93.00 | 232.00 | 330.00 | 413.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.42% | 3.35% | 4.70% | 5.22% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 73.00 | 153.00 | 250.00 | 302.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 304.00 | 303.00 | 302.00 | 327.00 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 18.76 | 19.63 | 17.46 | 19.02 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.07 | (0.45) | (0.56) | (0.69) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.77 | 1.46 | 1.54 | 1.82 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.18) | (0.09) | (0.13) | (0.16) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.60 | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.66 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.09 | 5.87 | 7.35 | 8.19 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 349.50 | 353.00 | 402.00 | 416.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 233.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.66 | 1.12 | 1.37 | 2.01 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.05 | 3.74 | 3.26 | 4.67 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.00 | 1.38 | 1.69 | 2.25 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 31.42 | 19.89 | 20.90 | 25.71 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 270.00 | 514.00 | 620.00 | 759.00 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (62.00) | (32.00) | (51.00) | (68.00) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Capex
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 208.00 | 482.00 | 569.00 | 691.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 731.00 | 775.00 | 773.00 | 1,079.00 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2,789.00 | 2,327.00 | 2,753.00 | 2,759.00 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2,184.00 | 1,848.00 | 2,254.00 | 1,847.00 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2,127.00 | 2,071.00 | 2,953.00 | 3,408.00 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.44% | (2.05%) | (2.85%) | (3.37%) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROA
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.35% | 5.73% | 5.81% | 6.59% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.30% | (7.67%) | (8.92%) | (9.06%) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROE
|
APi Group Corporation (APG) has engineered explosive growth since its 2022 SPAC debut, fueled by the $1.1 billion Chubb Fire & Security acquisition that nearly doubled revenue overnight to $7.0 billion in 2024—a staggering 50%+ CAGR from 2019 lows. Gross margins expanded 54% to 31.0%, cash flows surged 453% to $620 million, and ROIC turned positive at 5.8%, showcasing operational leverage amid sector headwinds like inflation and labor shortages. Analyst projections signal maturing but peer-beating revenue growth at 6-12% through 2027, with EPS stabilizing at $0.85.
Yet, this scale comes with elevated risks: debt ballooned 131% to $2.75 billion, shares doubled via dilution, and EV/FCF sits at 21x, leaving vulnerability to construction cycles and rate volatility. Heavy insider selling—$129 million net outflows in 2025—contrasts minimal buys, while consensus targets imply just 2% upside (13% high, 8% low downside) from recent highs, trading at 52x forward PE.
APG rewards patient execution on Chubb synergies but merits a hold amid macro uncertainties and limited margin of safety—dive into the full analysis for quantitative risk models and cyclical correlations.
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