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Target Price Range
Recommendation Rating
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 1.48 | 1.60 | 6.70 | 9.71 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.38 | 24.08 | 44.50 | 41.96 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 217 | 2,149 | 3,309 | 4,691 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.03 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.10 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 222.82 | 217.65 | 249.37 | 455.72 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 15.09% | 27.07% | 24.78% | 30.04% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (66.40) | (56.04) | (186.73) | (46.70) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (29.80%) | (25.75%) | (74.88%) | (10.25%) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (66.40) | (56.05) | (186.73) | (38.23) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 24.10 | 22.74 | 22.08 | 26.67 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.00 | 6.81 | 6.00 | 7.57 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.38) | (1.75) | (4.50) | (0.64) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.50) | (0.25) | (1.67) | (2.90) | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.12) | (0.30) | (1.06) | (2.98) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.62) | (0.55) | (2.73) | (5.88) | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.63 | 6.73 | 5.52 | 12.19 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 27.85 | 31.94 | 41.54 | 60.18 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | — |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.23 | 2.74 | 6.14 | 4.60 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.28 | 2.78 | 6.68 | 2.86 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.77 | 2.84 | 6.47 | 4.59 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (9.94) | (35.42) | (14.22) | (5.91) | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (14.02) | (7.93) | (69.53) | (174.43) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (3.30) | (9.53) | (43.90) | (179.52) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (17.33) | (17.46) | (113.43) | (353.95) | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 44.58 | 79.25 | 131.20 | 418.44 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 155.53 | 76.52 | 138.81 | 129.83 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 119.94 | 21.42 | 59.68 | (86.21) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 184.67 | 214.87 | 229.11 | 733.92 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (15.39%) | (14.06%) | (39.89%) | (4.46%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (12.11%) | (10.94%) | (15.35%) | (5.27%) | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (30.23%) | (28.06%) | (84.12%) | (7.94%) | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Analyst Commentary (Summary)
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Latest News
21 Sep
Carillon Eagle Small Cap Growth Fund’s Q2 2026 investor letter highlights Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) as a contributor, noting the hyperscaler capex surge fueling record demand for optical infrastructure. AAOI contributed 1.02% to the fund’s quarterly returns. As of September 18, 2026, AAOI closed at $105.17, with a 52-week range of $18.50–$233.67 and a market cap near $8.93 billion. The firm supplies fiber-optic lasers and related networking gear for data centers, and management cited early orders for next‑generation products and increased revenue visibility into mid‑next year. Analysts and hedge funds are tracking the name; AAOI was held by about 54 funds at the end of Q2, down slightly from the prior quarter, and not among the 40 most popular stocks. The broader backdrop includes a roughly $1 trillion data center spend boosting AI infrastructure investment and earnings potential, though near-term digestion may occur. Hyperscaler capex-driven demand and early orders suggest meaningful mid-term upside for AAOI.
11 Sep
AAOI faces rising demand for optical networking products with potential to outperform LITE and COHR. Rising demand could moderately boost AAOI's positioning against LITE and COHR without guaranteeing major shifts.
3 Sep
HPE faces production bottlenecks in meeting surging demand for AI servers, prompting questions on whether its valuation remains attractive amid growth constraints and supply chain pressures that could benefit component suppliers like AAOI. HPE's AI server supply constraints point to higher demand for AAOI optical components that could drive revenue growth and shift market positioning.
31 Aug
Applied Optoelectronics is expanding optical component production to support surging AI-driven data center demand and high-speed networking needs. AAOI's targeted buildout of data center optical solutions positions the company for major revenue gains and improved competitive standing in AI infrastructure.
25 Aug
Applied Optoelectronics encounters a unique issue from a possible U.S. ban on China that threatens its supply chain and revenue. Possible U.S. ban on China directly endangers Applied Optoelectronics supply chain and sales.
Applied Optoelectronics launches US$600 million ATM equity program, triggering 30.5% stock decline. US$600 million ATM equity program introduces major share dilution that pressures valuation and shifts financing trajectory.
AAOI benefits from strong 800G demand and may outperform LITE and COHR. Strong 800G demand and competitive edge over LITE and COHR signal major positive shift for AAOI trajectory.
Applied Optoelectronics announces $600 million at-the-market equity offering. $600M equity raise will substantially dilute shares and reshape capital structure.
24 Aug
Applied Optoelectronics announces $600M equity offering, sinking its stock 12%. Lumentum and Coherent shares drop 5%. $600M equity offering dilutes shares and supplies major growth capital that alters AAOI trajectory.
Applied Optoelectronics stock plunged nearly 14% on Monday after the company reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results and lowered forward guidance. Weak earnings and reduced outlook create moderate short-term pressure on revenue trajectory and investor sentiment without altering long-term fundamentals.
Applied Optoelectronics stock faces steeper declines than its recent record lows indicate amid persistent company challenges. Negative outlook on further stock declines pressures near-term investor sentiment and valuation without altering core operations.
23 Aug
AAOI stock fell 10% overnight after the company announced a $600M equity offering that triggered dilution concerns among shareholders. $600M equity offering directly dilutes shares and pressures long-term valuation and investor sentiment.
19 Aug
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) holds a massive opportunity in optical computing for AI applications. AAOI could see major trajectory changes from optical computing opportunities in AI.
18 Aug
Applied Optoelectronics is expanding U.S. laser manufacturing capacity to capture demand from AI data centers. Strategic expansion of domestic laser production directly targets high-growth AI infrastructure demand and can materially shift revenue trajectory.
14 Aug
Applied Optoelectronics positions its optical technologies to capture growth from the AI boom. Optical technologies position AAOI to capture major AI-driven demand and alter its market trajectory.
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) may be 93% overvalued despite revenue gains expected from an Amazon deal. Amazon deal supports revenue growth while overvaluation claim may shift market sentiment without fundamentally changing operations.
AAOI stock may be undervalued despite new AI demand news. AI demand developments affect AAOI operations and sentiment in a noticeable but limited way.
7 Aug
Proposed US ban on Chinese transceivers positions Applied Optoelectronics to gain market share in optical components. Proposed ban would shift market share to AAOI by restricting Chinese transceiver competitors.
Applied Optoelectronics posted record Q2 AI transceiver revenue, lifting shares 37.9% even as losses widened, leaving the bull case in question. Record AI transceiver revenue highlights major demand shift that can materially reshape revenue trajectory and investor positioning.
Applied Optoelectronics shares surge 13% after pivotal quarterly results, with Coherent advancing 13% and Lumentum adding 8%. Pivotal quarterly results drive major stock surge and improved investor outlook for Applied Optoelectronics.
Applied Optoelectronics Q2 earnings call highlighted capacity expansion to support 800G optical transceiver ramp. 800G capacity ramp drives major revenue growth in high-demand data center market.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc reported record revenue in its Q2 2026 earnings call. Record revenue signals major positive shift in financial performance and market positioning.
Martin Shkreli has taken a short position in Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), stating that commodity bottlenecks prevent the company from qualifying as a great business. Shkreli's publicized short bet adds negative sentiment that can sway near-term trading and investor perception of AAOI.
Applied Optoelectronics beat Q2 earnings estimates with year-over-year revenue growth. Q2 earnings beat and revenue growth signal improved financial results that may affect near-term valuation.
Applied Optoelectronics reported Q2 earnings and the analysis weighs whether investors should continue holding the stock given financial results and outlook. Post-Q2 earnings review and hold recommendation can moderately sway near-term investor sentiment and trading around AAOI shares.
AAOI shares surge on AI demand but face ongoing questions over its meme stock reputation and ability to sustain gains. AI interest may lift near-term sentiment and trading without fundamentally changing long-term operations.
AAOI stock surges 10% in premarket trading on positive developments that lifted investor sentiment toward the company. Premarket surge signals moderate short-term positive market reaction without evidence of fundamental long-term shifts.
6 Aug
Applied Optoelectronics reported its second quarter 2026 financial results. Quarterly earnings releases typically move stock prices and shift investor views on company trajectory.
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates. Q2 earnings and revenue beat signals stronger operational results that can lift near-term stock valuation and sentiment.
Applied Optoelectronics held its Q2 earnings call, covering financial results, operational updates, and forward guidance for the company. Q2 earnings figures and guidance can shift near-term investor views and valuation without fundamentally redirecting company strategy.
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), a key player in optical components for telecom and AI data centers, exemplifies high-volatility growth with a decade of boom-bust cycles: revenue surged 47% to $382M in 2017 amid 400G demand (stock hit $103), but plunged 45% to $212M by 2021, dragging shares to $1.48 amid trade wars and oversupply. A modest 2024 recovery to $250M revenue and 24.8% gross margins fueled a 30x stock rebound to $44.50, yet persistent losses ($187M net loss), negative FCF (-$2.73/share), and 141% share dilution highlight fragility despite AI tailwinds.
Balance sheet shows buffers ($229M equity, $131M working capital) but rising debt ($139M) and dismal returns (ROE -84%, ROIC -15%) signal value destruction. Insiders mixed: CEO/director buys ($1.66M) signal optimism, but $4.9M sells suggest profit-taking. Projections dazzle—revenue to $1.36B by 2027 (+78% CAGR)—but EPS volatility (-$0.77 to +$0.54) and stretched multiples (PS 6.14x) price in perfection.
AI-driven 800G/1.6T ramps offer explosive upside, echoing past surges, yet customer concentration (50% revenue), geopolitics, and overcapacity risks loom large—history warns of 98% drawdowns. With modest analyst upside (mean target ~4% below current), AAOI tempts speculators but demands tight stops and proof of 2025 growth.