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Target Price Range
Recommendation Rating
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 11.72 | 12.22 | 8.69 | 8.06 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 21.29 | 19.31 | 15.99 | 13.62 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 64,516 | 66,807 | 64,610 | 65,805 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.58 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 43,839.00 | 41,784.00 | 38,056.00 | 38,403.00 | — | — | — |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 45.19% | 42.35% | 36.24% | 35.04% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 19,781.00 | 11,151.00 | 6,696.00 | 4,653.00 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 45.12% | 26.69% | 17.60% | 12.12% | — | — | — |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 19,781.00 | 11,151.00 | 6,696.00 | 4,653.00 | — | — | — |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3,171.00 | 3,070.00 | 3,057.00 | 3,105.00 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.45 | 9.57 | 8.90 | 9.00 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 4.05 | 1.83 | 1.44 | 0.55 | — | — | — |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.48 | 3.02 | 2.19 | 2.06 | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.17) | (1.36) | (1.51) | (1.41) | — | — | — |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.30 | 1.66 | 0.68 | 0.65 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.06 | 9.39 | 8.08 | 8.05 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4,637.79 | 4,366.13 | 4,274.85 | 4,268.78 | — | — | — |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.04 | 8.58 | 6.16 | 23.27 | — | — | — |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.73 | 1.64 | 1.00 | 1.45 | — | — | — |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.03 | 1.67 | 1.10 | 1.62 | — | — | — |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.97 | 1.95 | 1.27 | 1.74 | — | — | — |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 14.29 | 11.25 | 16.54 | 23.86 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 11,485.00 | 13,165.00 | 9,366.00 | 8,801.00 | — | — | — |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (5,446.00) | (5,920.00) | (6,447.00) | (6,006.00) | — | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,039.00 | 7,245.00 | 2,919.00 | 2,795.00 | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,635.00 | 4,045.00 | 391.00 | 2,421.00 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 15,255.00 | 16,600.00 | 15,358.00 | 18,642.00 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10,458.00 | 12,940.00 | 10,352.00 | 11,076.00 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 37,358.00 | 40,981.00 | 34,528.00 | 34,350.00 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 21.31% | 8.82% | 7.07% | 2.82% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 22.49% | 16.47% | 15.02% | 8.11% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 51.71% | 20.38% | 16.33% | 6.83% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Analyst Commentary (Summary)
VALE S.A. (VALE) Latest News
14 Sep
Vale S.A. is preparing to issue yuan-denominated bonds, strengthening its financial links with China as a key market for iron ore exports. Yuan bond issuance offers moderate funding and relationship benefits with China but does not fundamentally alter Vale's core operations or competitive position.
9 Sep
Vale CFO states iron ore prices face no downturn. CFO outlook on stable iron ore prices supports positive market sentiment and performance expectations for VALE.
HMM has secured a $3.5bn contract to ship iron ore for Vale. Long-term shipping deal supports Vale iron ore exports but leaves overall operations and positioning unchanged.
24 Aug
19 more Brazilian cities join Vale and BHP compensation deal for Mariana Dam collapse. Expanded compensation scope increases Vale's financial liabilities from the dam collapse.
13 Aug
Vale S.A. and ABB signed a deal to expand automation at Vale's iron ore plants in Brazil. Automation expansion targets efficiency gains in core iron ore operations.
3 Aug
Vale's Q2 earnings call emphasized copper production growth and a cost reset aimed at improving operational efficiency. Copper expansion plans combined with lower costs signal major shifts in Vale's production trajectory and investor outlook.
1 Aug
Vale S.A. released Q2 earnings call highlights covering financial results, production volumes, cost metrics and forward guidance. Regular quarterly earnings updates typically produce moderate short-term share-price moves without altering long-term trajectory.
31 Jul
VALE Q2 earnings key metrics are compared to estimates. Q2 earnings versus estimates can shift short-term investor sentiment on financial results.
23 Jul
VALE S.A. prepares to release Q2 earnings with focus on expected revenue, production volumes and iron ore pricing trends. Q2 earnings data will shape near-term investor views on VALE financials and operations.
16 Jul
Vale CFO reports strong demand for iron ore and copper while flagging Iran war risk as potential threat to outlook. Strong demand supports revenue growth but Iran war risk introduces market volatility affecting commodity prices.
27 Jun
Vale S.A. launches AI-driven model plant in Itabira. AI-driven model plant launch signals targeted operational innovation at one site with moderate efficiency gains expected.
4 Jun
Vale (VALE) receives a higher price target after operational expectations improve. Raised price target on better operations points to moderate positive effect on near-term stock performance.
21 May
Vale and I Squared advance in bidding for $5 billion Brazil iron ore port to strengthen export logistics. Major port acquisition would expand core iron ore export capacity and cut logistics costs.
2 May
Vale S.A. released Q1 earnings call highlights, reporting iron ore production, sales volumes, EBITDA, net profit, dividend payouts, and outlook amid market challenges. Q1 earnings highlights reveal financial health, production levels, and guidance that significantly sway VALE's stock price and investor confidence.
29 Apr
VALE S.A. (VALE) Q1 earnings compared to analyst estimates, analyzing key metrics. Q1 earnings versus estimates significantly impacts VALE's financial perception and stock trajectory.
27 Apr
Vale S.A. announced production and sales results for Q1 2026. Q1 production and sales results directly impact revenue projections, operational outlook, and investor sentiment for Vale.
22 Apr
Vale S.A. prepares to release Q1 earnings, with analysts forecasting iron ore production around 70-72 million tonnes, steady sales volumes, lower costs due to efficiency gains, and EBITDA of $5.5-6 billion amid softer prices and China demand concerns. Q1 earnings preview highlights potential swings in production, costs, and profitability that could moderately affect financial outlook and stock sentiment.
20 Apr
New analyst views are shifting the investment story for Vale (BOVESPA:VALE3). Shifts in analyst perspectives moderately influence investor sentiment and Vale's market trajectory.
2 Apr
Brazil’s iron ore production expected to rise, driven by stronger performance from Vale S.A. Vale's stronger performance directly boosts Brazil's iron ore production, signaling significant positive impact on its operations and market trajectory.
Bank of America upgrades Vale S.A. (VALE) to buy rating amid market selloff triggered by Iran conflict, citing resilient iron ore demand, cost discipline, and undervaluation. BofA's contrarian upgrade amid geopolitical selloff highlights Vale's operational strength, likely enhancing investor sentiment and stock trajectory significantly.
Analysts raised price targets on Vale S.A. (VALE) shares amid the company's improving outlook. Analyst price target increases signal improving outlook with moderately noticeable influence on investor sentiment and VALE's market performance.
30 Mar
Magnet shortage threatens to halt $10 trillion tech sector amid surging demand for EVs, renewables, and electronics; VALE S.A. emerges as critical supplier of nickel and other metals essential for permanent magnets. Magnet shortages drive up demand and prices for VALE's nickel, directly boosting revenues and strengthening market position in tech supply chain.
25 Mar
Brazil Potash nears key construction milestones and eyes funding breakthrough in quarterly update report. Progress toward construction milestones and funding in Brazil Potash project moderately enhances VALE's diversification and long-term growth prospects.
Brazil Potash nears key construction milestones and eyes funding breakthrough, per downloadable quarterly update report. Construction progress and funding pursuit in potash project provide moderate diversification benefits to VALE's operations.
23 Mar
Vale's story evolves as iron ore and copper market expectations shift, impacting the company's outlook amid changing commodity dynamics. Shifts in iron ore and copper expectations directly threaten Vale's core revenue from mining operations and market valuation.
11 Mar
VALE reports strong 2025 output amid questions on whether expansion plans will drive future gains. Strong 2025 output and expansion efforts represent major strategic moves likely to significantly enhance VALE's trajectory and investor sentiment.
8 Mar
Vale S.A. transitions its investment narrative from iron ore dominance to emerging copper production potential, highlighting diversification amid shifting commodity dynamics. Strategic pivot to copper unlocks growth in high-demand energy transition metals, potentially boosting long-term valuation beyond iron ore cycles.
1 Mar
Bank of America downgraded Vale S.A. (VALE) from Buy to Neutral due to concerns outlined in the analysis. Analyst downgrade by major bank like BofA moderately influences market sentiment and short-term stock performance.
24 Feb
Vale S.A. (VALE) reported production growth for 2025 and a 17% year-over-year EBITDA increase in Q4 2025. 17% YoY Q4 EBITDA growth and 2025 production increases signal strong financial and operational momentum likely to enhance investor sentiment and stock performance.
19 Feb
Vale S.A. (VALE) stock prompts buy, sell, or hold debate after Q4 earnings, evaluating financial results, iron ore prices, production levels, dividends, and future outlook amid market volatility. Q4 earnings directly shape Vale's financial trajectory, dividend policy, and investor sentiment through production, costs, and commodity price analysis.
Vale S.A., the Brazilian iron ore powerhouse, has shown remarkable resilience amid brutal cycles, but it’s haunted by past disasters like the 2015 Mariana and 2019 Brumadinho dam failures that triggered huge losses, fines, and reputational hits. Revenue soared to $54.5 billion in 2021 on sky-high iron ore prices from China’s demand and post-COVID stimulus, but plunged to $38.1 billion by 2024 as prices normalized below $100/ton amid China’s property slump. Efficiency metrics like revenue per employee peaked then dipped with workforce cuts, while gross margins reverted from 60% highs to 36%, highlighting Vale’s heavy reliance on commodity tailwinds over diversified stability.
Profitability swung wildly—net income from a $2.8 billion loss in 2019 to $29.5 billion in 2021, now $6.7 billion—with ROE cooling from 64% to 16% and free cash flow per share cratering from $4.12 to $0.68 amid rising capex for safer operations. The balance sheet is healthier, with net debt at $12.6 billion against $34.5 billion equity, but liquidity strains and high capital intensity drag on payouts, tying stock swings closely to ore prices (2024 range: $8.69-$16).
Valuation screams cheap at 6.2x PE and 1.1x PB, but risks loom large: China slowdowns, ESG scrutiny, Brazil instability, and potential FCF drops below $3 billion. Bulls eye low-cost production and nickel/copper upside; bears warn of oversupply and tail risks. Worth watching for cycle-savvy investors—dive into the full analysis for Q1 2026 cash flow signals and target scenarios.