Synlogic, Inc. (SYBX) and Caldera signed a merger agreement. Merger agreement with Caldera fundamentally redefines Synlogic's corporate structure and long-term prospects.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2022 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2021 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2020 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2019 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2017 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 47.75 | 18.86 | 14.67 | 13.18 |
| Receivables | — | — | — | — |
| Inventory | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | 0.09 | — | — |
| 49.91 | 19.78 | 15.40 | 13.43 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 1.46 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 30.29 | 7.08 | 3.58 | 1.46 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’24 | 0.01 | — | — | — |
0.01
|
| ’23 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.39 | 2.77 |
3.37
|
| ’22 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.68 | 0.11 |
1.18
|
| ’21 | — | 0.25 | 0.92 | 0.59 |
1.75
|
| ’20 | 0.10 | 0.45 | — | 0.00 |
0.55
|
| ’19 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 1.23 |
2.22
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (0.56) | (0.92) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (1.60) | (0.40) | (1.44) | (0.92) |
(4.36)
|
| ’24 | (15.44) | (15.01) | (0.65) | (0.57) |
(31.66)
|
| ’23 | (21.50) | (11.63) | (12.95) | (5.53) |
(51.61)
|
| ’22 | (15.48) | (13.57) | (15.45) | (12.39) |
(56.89)
|
| ’21 | (13.98) | (11.34) | (13.82) | (13.06) |
(52.20)
|
| ’20 | (12.48) | (8.99) | (8.20) | (9.89) |
(39.55)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (0.56) | (0.92) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (1.59) | (0.24) | (1.44) | (0.92) |
(4.19)
|
| ’24 | (15.68) | (13.55) | (0.58) | (0.54) |
(30.34)
|
| ’23 | (21.63) | (11.67) | (12.95) | (5.56) |
(51.81)
|
| ’22 | (15.95) | (13.72) | (15.50) | (12.44) |
(57.62)
|
| ’21 | (14.00) | (11.45) | (14.20) | (13.23) |
(52.88)
|
| ’20 | (12.74) | (9.04) | (8.26) | (9.90) |
(39.95)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 0.05 | (0.04) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 0.03 | (0.04) | (0.19) | 0.12 |
(0.08)
|
| ’24 | (2.60) | 0.16 | (0.01) | (0.06) |
(1.92)
|
| ’23 | (3.45) | (3.15) | (2.57) | (1.71) |
(8.81)
|
| ’22 | (3.30) | (3.30) | (3.75) | (3.60) |
(13.79)
|
| ’21 | (5.40) | (4.20) | (4.35) | (3.15) |
(16.34)
|
| ’20 | (6.90) | (6.60) | (5.40) | (5.85) |
(24.74)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.25 | 1.61 | 1.22 | 0.90 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 39.75 | 16.50 | 5.12 | 1.96 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 72 | 6 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.02 | 0.56 | 0.01 | 0.00 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.18 | 3.37 | 0.01 | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | — | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (66.15) | (61.26) | (23.35) | (1.00) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (5,605.68%) | (1,817.24%) | (291,925.00%) | 0.00% | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (66.15) | (61.27) | (23.36) | (1.00) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.75 | 1.14 | 0.11 | — | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.25 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (13.79) | (8.81) | (1.92) | (0.08) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (11.90) | (7.94) | (2.60) | (0.35) | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.15) | (0.03) | 0.11 | 0.01 | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (12.05) | (7.97) | (2.49) | (0.34) | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.28 | 5.04 | 1.05 | 0.96 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.78 | 6.50 | 12.20 | 12.31 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 45.10 | 8.62 | 5.33 | — | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.64 | 0.89 | 1.34 | — | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (17.15) | (0.14) | 5.12 | — | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.35 | 0.01 | (0.54) | — | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (56.89) | (51.61) | (31.66) | (4.36) | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.73) | (0.20) | 1.32 | 0.17 | — | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (57.62) | (51.81) | (30.34) | (4.19) | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 67.66 | 19.62 | 12.70 | 11.81 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (73.46) | (47.75) | (18.86) | (14.67) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 82.61 | 32.77 | 12.75 | 11.86 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (46.32%) | (65.74%) | (48.98%) | (5.70%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (460.51%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (57.55%) | (106.21%) | (102.63%) | (8.17%) | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Synlogic, Inc. (SYBX), a clinical-stage biotech leveraging synthetic biology for microbiome therapeutics, trades at rock-bottom levels after a 99%+ drawdown from 2016 peaks, driven by relentless share dilution (11,500% increase), trial failures, expired partnerships, and drastic layoffs reducing headcount to just one employee. Revenue has cratered to a mere $8,000 in 2024 amid operational wind-down, with per-share metrics eviscerated and cash burn persisting, yet gross margins remain at 100% from milestone dependencies—exemplifying classic pre-revenue biotech volatility.
Analyst forecasts signal a dramatic inflection: revenue exploding over 280,000% to $22.75 million by 2026, losses narrowing sharply (EPS to -$0.23), and shares stabilizing, implying deep undervaluation on forward PS ratios near 0x and potential 61% upside to consensus targets. Probability-weighted models suggest 2-3x returns in a base case, fueled by Phase 1 data for lead PKU therapy SYN-2024 and cash runway extension.
Yet risks abound—80% clinical failure rates, dilution recurrence, absent insider buys, and bear-case delisting—making SYBX high-convexity speculation with 99% downside arguably priced in. This quantitative dissection correlates fundamentals, price action, and sentiment to uncover asymmetric opportunity amid despair.
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