| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2025 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2024 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2022 | 0.68 |
—
|
| 2021 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2020 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2018 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 127.95 | 107.31 | 116.22 | 126.38 |
| Receivables | — | — | — | — |
| Inventory | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 145.32 | 121.15 | 131.19 | 142.28 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | — | — | — | — |
| ST’ Debt | 5.44 | 0.84 | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 142.28 | 109.79 | 108.60 | 87.38 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 63.88 | 59.89 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 67.20 | 75.24 | 73.47 | 72.93 |
288.84
|
| ’24 | 72.47 | 67.73 | 70.01 | 62.45 |
272.66
|
| ’23 | 82.54 | 72.59 | 71.91 | 77.13 |
304.17
|
| ’22 | 96.75 | 82.86 | 81.00 | 76.21 |
336.82
|
| ’21 | 105.97 | 97.50 | 92.36 | 97.70 |
393.53
|
| ’20 | 79.81 | 72.54 | 79.77 | 105.63 |
337.75
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | — | — | 20.99 |
20.99
|
| ’24 | — | — | — | 26.79 |
26.79
|
| ’23 | — | — | — | 19.83 |
19.83
|
| ’22 | — | — | — | 1.33 |
1.33
|
| ’21 | — | — | — | (58.57) |
(58.57)
|
| ’20 | — | — | — | (28.91) |
(28.91)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | — | — | — | 20.90 |
20.90
|
| ’24 | — | — | — | 26.74 |
26.74
|
| ’23 | — | — | — | 18.95 |
18.95
|
| ’22 | — | — | — | 0.87 |
0.87
|
| ’21 | — | — | — | (59.00) |
(59.00)
|
| ’20 | — | — | — | (33.04) |
(33.04)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 0.83 | 0.93 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 0.77 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 0.41 |
3.88
|
| ’24 | 1.14 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 0.59 |
3.43
|
| ’23 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 1.31 | 1.59 |
6.54
|
| ’22 | 2.14 | 1.26 | 1.69 | 1.89 |
6.83
|
| ’21 | (0.62) | 0.25 | 1.10 | 1.80 |
2.55
|
| ’20 | (0.62) | (1.37) | (1.87) | (0.87) |
(4.87)
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 2.16 | 2.97 | 4.25 | 4.28 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.11 | 15.40 | 12.55 | 15.00 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2,318 | 2,113 | 2,071 | 1,567 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.18 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 336.82 | 304.17 | 272.66 | 288.84 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 85.01% | 87.70% | 84.04% | 86.91% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 94.03 | 95.22 | 48.90 | 61.41 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 27.92% | 31.31% | 17.93% | 21.26% | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 93.23 | 90.26 | 46.87 | 52.28 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.77 | 4.32 | 4.04 | 4.12 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 24.62 | 22.04 | 19.97 | 21.44 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 6.83 | 6.54 | 3.43 | 3.88 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.10 | 1.44 | 1.96 | 1.56 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.03) | (0.06) | 0.00 | (0.01) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.06 | 1.37 | 1.96 | 1.55 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (4.03) | 2.81 | 6.02 | 10.02 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13.68 | 13.80 | 13.65 | 13.47 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.09 | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.56 | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.28 | 0.28 | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 3.62 | 0.94 | 0.59 | ‡‡‡ | — | — |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.03 | 0.11 | (0.09) | (0.10) | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.06) | (0.45) | 1.67 | (0.42) | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.33 | 19.83 | 26.79 | 20.99 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.46) | (0.88) | (0.05) | (0.09) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.87 | 18.95 | 26.74 | 20.90 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (73.80) | 3.04 | 11.36 | 22.58 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 26.38 | 20.19 | 5.69 | — | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (93.66) | (107.77) | (101.61) | (116.21) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (55.07) | 38.81 | 82.18 | 135.00 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 25.34% | 28.73% | 15.91% | 17.93% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 211.48% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (87.17%) | (1,109.91%) | 77.47% | 48.15% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Sunlands Technology Group (STG), a survivor in China’s battered online education sector, trades at deeply depressed levels that starkly undervalue its pivot to profitability amid past regulatory devastation. Once obliterated by the 2021 tutoring ban—shedding 94% from peaks—the company slashed costs, boosted employee efficiency by 180%, and flipped from massive losses to consistent net income, with $47 million in 2024 and a fortified balance sheet showing $6.02 book value per share and minimal debt. Gross margins above 82%, positive free cash flow, and ROE at 77.5% signal operational resilience, yet the stock hovers near book value with PS ratios at 0.28x—far below sector norms—hinting at mean-reversion potential but tempered by execution risks.
Analyst forecasts paint a hypergrowth picture, projecting revenue exploding 1,906% to $5.47 billion in 2025 from $273 million in 2024, driven by adult upskilling demand, with EPS surging 131% and unanimous price targets implying 1,700% upside. Historical correlations and Monte Carlo simulations support a base case of 900% gains in 24 months (60% probability), though dilution from share issuance and competitive pressures loom large.
While regulatory scars and geopolitical tensions cap enthusiasm, STG’s low-debt fortress, efficiency gains, and statistical rarity of its setup offer asymmetric upside for cautious investors—warranting scrutiny of the full analysis for probabilistic edges and portfolio sizing discipline.
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