| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 1.95 |
—
—
—
|
| 2025 | 1.69 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2024 | 2.00 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 0.50 |
—
|
| 2022 | 1.50 |
—
—
—
|
| 2021 | 1.55 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2020 | 1.40 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2019 | 1.25 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2018 | 1.20 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2017 | 0.90 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2016 | 0.65 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 314.30 | 276.07 | 201.84 | 74.37 |
| Receivables | — | — | — | — |
| Inventory | 216.95 | 199.23 | 421.80 | 673.04 |
| Other | 49.66 | 54.65 | 71.30 | 103.92 |
| 793.25 | 794.87 | 943.37 | 1,216.49 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | — | — | — | — |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | — |
| Other | 3.33 | 5.97 | 6.01 | 14.50 |
| 212.81 | 199.50 | 339.52 | 482.21 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 342.11 | 451.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 166.49 | 198.68 | 242.00 | 278.46 |
885.63
|
| ’24 | 189.31 | 210.67 | 212.41 | 191.16 |
803.55
|
| ’23 | 124.07 | 140.36 | 172.33 | 202.38 |
639.14
|
| ’22 | 241.98 | 252.37 | 250.81 | 200.76 |
945.92
|
| ’21 | 182.40 | 221.10 | 254.24 | 264.36 |
922.10
|
| ’20 | 132.77 | 136.81 | 126.04 | 143.90 |
539.52
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (31.22) | (63.78) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 50.27 | (17.27) | 26.88 | 1.48 |
61.36
|
| ’24 | 7.81 | 13.68 | 61.86 | (6.26) |
77.10
|
| ’23 | 6.97 | 36.04 | 64.91 | 41.16 |
149.08
|
| ’22 | (2.13) | 3.37 | 42.64 | 40.01 |
83.89
|
| ’21 | 17.37 | 60.03 | 28.66 | 68.64 |
174.70
|
| ’20 | 39.61 | 25.70 | 30.19 | 21.73 |
117.23
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (49.45) | (71.51) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 38.61 | (32.82) | 6.77 | (6.26) |
6.30
|
| ’24 | (2.94) | 14.00 | 38.67 | (16.99) |
32.74
|
| ’23 | (6.58) | 25.96 | 47.86 | 31.53 |
98.77
|
| ’22 | (13.79) | (1.55) | 34.07 | 7.07 |
50.95
|
| ’21 | 14.04 | 55.10 | 21.33 | 59.57 |
150.04
|
| ’20 | 33.21 | 21.57 | 27.57 | 15.33 |
97.68
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 1.97 | 3.99 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 1.16 | 1.41 |
3.64
|
| ’24 | 0.48 | 0.91 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
2.69
|
| ’23 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.63 |
1.58
|
| ’22 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.29 | 0.71 |
5.17
|
| ’21 | 0.98 | 1.42 | 1.58 | 1.73 |
5.71
|
| ’20 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.04 |
2.28
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 51.82 | 49.50 | 50.50 | 37.21 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 98.65 | 95.33 | 85.87 | 106.60 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,643 | 1,546 | 1,819 | 2,009 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.44 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 945.92 | 639.14 | 803.55 | 885.63 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 49.25% | 42.31% | 45.89% | 48.27% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 212.58 | 61.05 | 107.41 | 140.13 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 22.47% | 9.55% | 13.37% | 15.82% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 172.51 | 52.87 | 89.25 | 122.64 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 18.93 | 21.81 | 25.33 | 30.17 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 28.44 | 19.16 | 23.89 | 26.38 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 5.19 | 1.59 | 2.70 | 3.65 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.52 | 4.47 | 2.29 | 1.83 | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.99) | (1.51) | (1.32) | (1.64) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.53 | 2.96 | 0.97 | 0.19 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 22.03 | 22.03 | 22.96 | 24.74 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 33.26 | 33.35 | 33.64 | 33.58 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.39 | 37.51 | 20.02 | 25.33 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.26 | 3.11 | 2.26 | 3.51 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.91 | 2.71 | 2.35 | 3.75 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.02 | 2.63 | 1.93 | 3.29 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 73.94 | 17.02 | 47.29 | 463.39 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 83.89 | 149.08 | 77.10 | 61.36 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (32.94) | (50.31) | (44.35) | (55.06) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 50.95 | 98.77 | 32.74 | 6.30 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 604.05 | 580.44 | 595.37 | 603.85 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (228.97) | (314.30) | (276.07) | (201.84) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 732.60 | 734.70 | 772.28 | 830.74 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.85% | 5.37% | 8.75% | 10.88% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 26.55% | 5.93% | 11.45% | 9.25% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 24.82% | 7.21% | 11.84% | 15.30% | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
ROE
|
Silicon Motion (SIMO), a NAND flash controller leader, is riding a revenue rebound from 2023’s 32% plunge to $804 million in 2024, with analysts forecasting explosive growth to $1.36 billion by 2027 on AI SSD demand—implying 3% to 32% stock upside. Yet this enthusiasm ignores the semiconductor memory cycle’s brutal boom-bust rhythm, where SIMO’s fate hinges on volatile NAND prices from giants like Samsung and Micron. Margins cratered to 42% in 2023 before a tepid recovery, profitability swung wildly (EPS from $5.19 to $1.59 and back), and free cash flow per share nosedived 94% in 2024 amid rising capex—exposing efficiency cracks like bloating employee costs.
A cash-rich balance sheet ($202 million net cash, negligible debt) offers a buffer, supporting buybacks and dividends, while valuation looks bargain-priced at 20x PE and 2.3x PS. But contrarians spot decoupling dangers: shares mirrored past cycles from 27 lows to 97 peaks before halving, book value grew steadily yet stock lagged, and zero insider trades in a year screams caution amid Taiwan geopolitics and 50% China revenue exposure risking US curbs.
History warns of mirages—2018 trade wars and NAND gluts crushed optimism before. Analysts bet on sustained AI tailwinds and 40% revenue CAGR, but with cycles averaging 2-3 years, fading hype at current stretches makes sense: buy deep dips, trim the top.
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