Novavax, Inc.
NVAX Healthcare Biotechnology
Novavax, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.1 billion, up 64.7% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue fell 76.3%, EPS fell 148.5%, free cash flow grew 43.0% and total debt rose 31.5%, each against the same quarter a year earlier.
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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Altman Z-score
Novavax, Inc.'s Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is −2.18, in the distress zone (below 1.81).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −2.18 | 2.08 |
| FY2024 | −4.27 | 0.19 |
| FY2023 | −4.46 | (1.51) |
| FY2022 | −2.95 | (1.34) |
| FY2021 | −1.61 | (3.92) |
| FY2020 | 2.31 | 15.44 |
| FY2019 | −13.13 | (3.30) |
| FY2018 | −9.83 | (3.95) |
| FY2017 | −5.87 | (1.55) |
| FY2016 | −4.33 | (15.52) |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | 0.44 | — | 0.53 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | (3.88) | — | −5.44 | |
| EBIT / total assets | 0.38 | — | 1.27 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 0.83 | — | 0.50 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.95 | — | 0.95 | |
| Altman Z-score | Distress zone | −2.18 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Distress zone | −7.28 | ||
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| IMNM Immunome, Inc. compare | 21.6× |
| VCEL Vericel Corporation compare | 8.2× |
| AUPH Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc compare | 7.9× |
| VRDN Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. compare | 6.7× |
| FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc. compare | −0.3× |
| NVAX Novavax, Inc. | −2.2× |
| IRON Disc Medicine, Inc. compare | — |
| PHVS Pharvaris N.V. compare | — |
| VERA Vera Therapeutics, Inc. compare | — |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets